Ali Akbar Rosady
As the college football regular season nears its conclusion, Week 12 presents a slate of high-stakes contests poised to reshape the College Football Playoff (CFP) picture, particularly in the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). Statistical projections suggest that perceived certainties are far from guaranteed, with a high probability that many teams currently in contention will experience at least one more defeat before Championship Weekend. For instance, the likelihood of a three-way tie among 7-1 teams in the American Conference stands at approximately 1-in-3, while in the ACC, it is closer to 1-in-5. Among teams ranked eighth through 14th in the CFP standings, only one holds a greater than 54% chance of winning out, and the odds of all of them doing so are a mere 0.1%. This statistical volatility underscores the significant impact of the upcoming mid-November Saturday.
SEC Clash: New Contenders Face Established Powers
This weekend features a compelling narrative in the SEC, with two high-profile programs, recently elevated to the conference, confronting long-standing dominant forces. Both Texas and Oklahoma find themselves on the periphery of CFP contention, necessitating strong performances on the road against teams that have historically defined the league’s championship landscape.
No. 10 Texas at No. 5 Georgia (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
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Despite a season marked by fluctuations, including the continued development of quarterback Arch Manning and a notable loss to Florida juxtaposed with a decisive victory over Oklahoma, Texas remains in solid CFP positioning. To maintain this, the Longhorns likely need at least a 2-1 record, potentially 3-0, against a challenging schedule comprising Georgia, Arkansas, and Texas A&M.
In their crucial game two weeks prior against Vanderbilt, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian simplified the offense, focusing on short passes and perimeter plays. Manning responded by completing 25 of 33 passes for 328 yards and three touchdowns, notably without completing a pass beyond 17 yards downfield. Of his 11 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, Texas generated an impressive 172 yards after the catch, demonstrating a low-risk, high-explosiveness approach. This strategy could prove effective against Georgia, whose elite run defense and ability to prevent deep plays are countered by a relative lack of negative plays and forced turnovers. The Bulldogs rank 90th in yards allowed per attempt (5.7) on passes thrown within five yards of the line of scrimmage, a potential vulnerability that Texas could exploit to negate Georgia’s strength against the run and mitigate Manning’s struggles on passing downs. Georgia’s own offensive approach often mirrors this short-passing game, with players like Zachariah Branch excelling in yards after catch, having gained 172 yards on 11 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. Texas’ defense, considered the best Georgia has faced, is formidable against the run, and starting safeties Michael Taaffe and Jelani McDonald are expected to return from injuries.
Current line: UGA -5.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 4.4 | FPI projection: UGA by 2.3
No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
A year after Oklahoma delivered a 24-3 upset that derailed a two-loss Alabama’s playoff aspirations, the Sooners, now with two losses themselves, travel to Tuscaloosa for only their second visit and first as an SEC member. Oklahoma enters this contest needing to avoid a significant road defeat.
In their previous must-win game two weeks ago against Tennessee, Oklahoma overcame a statistically dominated first half by capitalizing on turnovers, ultimately securing a 33-27 victory with a stronger second-half performance. Such a slow start may be unsustainable against Alabama, one of the nation’s premier first-half teams, boasting a plus-108 scoring margin before halftime, contrasted with a minus-3 in the third quarter.
Alabama’s offense has averaged just 4.9 yards per play and 23.4 points per game against defenses ranked in SP+’s top 30. Oklahoma’s defense, ranked third, represents the most formidable unit the Crimson Tide has encountered, although its strength could be compromised by the questionable status of defensive end R Mason Thomas and tackle Jayden Jackson. Oklahoma leads the nation in rushing success rate allowed, while Alabama’s run game ranks 109th. This mismatch implies that quarterback Ty Simpson and the Tide will need to succeed primarily through the air, but the Sooners also rank ninth in passing success rate allowed. Reaching 23 points would be a significant achievement for Alabama in this matchup.
For Oklahoma’s offense, which has shown some vulnerability against the run, the performance of 239-pound sophomore running back Xavier Robinson, who has amassed 224 yards in the last two games, will be critical. The Sooners’ red-zone efficiency, coupled with quarterback John Mateer’s mobility, could enable them to convert fewer scoring opportunities into points. However, Mateer’s average of 5.0 yards per dropback in his past four games suggests a need for greater aerial production to secure a major road victory.
Current line: Bama -6.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 1.3 | FPI projection: Bama by 5.8
Notre Dame Faces Pivotal Road Test
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 22 Pitt (Noon ET, ABC)
Historically, Pitt has demonstrated a knack for derailing top teams’ seasons at home, with notable upsets including a 24-14 victory over No. 2 Miami in 2017 and a 31-28 win against No. 5 Virginia Tech in 2003. As Notre Dame pursues a CFP bid, needing three more wins, this road game against Pitt is considered the most significant challenge, given their remaining schedule against Syracuse and Stanford.
Following early-season losses to Miami and Texas A&M, the Fighting Irish have embarked on a seven-game winning streak, averaging a 41-14 margin of victory. Pitt, however, represents their strongest opponent in this stretch outside of USC. The Panthers have experienced a resurgence under coach Pat Narduzzi, primarily due to the insertion of freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel, who has quickly ascended into the top 25 of power-conference quarterback rankings. Heintschel’s mobility and ability to connect with explosive receivers Kenny Johnson, Raphael Williams Jr., and Cataurus Hicks have fueled a five-game winning streak for Pitt. Running back Desmond Reid, who missed the last game, is expected to return, potentially bolstering Pitt’s ground attack against a potentially banged-up Notre Dame defensive front.
Pitt’s defense is characterized by its aggressive nature, ranking second nationally in yards allowed per carry and seventh in pressure rate, forcing opposing quarterbacks into difficult throws. The potential return of linebacker Rasheem Biles and safety Cruce Brookins could further fortify their unit. This aggressive style will place significant pressure on Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr, a redshirt freshman who ranks seventh on expert QB lists and 10th in Total QBR. Carr’s ability to create big-pass plays with targets like Malachi Fields and Will Pauling could counter Pitt’s defensive strengths, even if the Panthers effectively contain surging running back Jeremiyah Love.
Current line: Irish -12.5 (up from -10.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Irish by 7.2 | FPI projection: Irish by 8.1
ACC Landscape: A Jumbled Race for Conference Supremacy
The ACC presents a complex scenario with five teams—Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pitt, SMU, and Duke—each holding a single conference loss. With only two remaining head-to-head matchups among these contenders, a maximum of three teams can finish 7-1: the winner of this week’s Virginia-Duke game (72% chance), next week’s Georgia Tech-Pitt winner (65%), and SMU (40%). The probability of three teams reaching 7-1 is 19%, while a two-team tie is 45% likely, indicating potential tiebreaker complexities.
No. 19 Virginia at Duke (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Duke, despite a 1-3 non-conference record that included losses to Tulane and UConn, has emerged as a significant contender in the ACC with a 4-1 conference record and is projected as favorites in its remaining games. The Blue Devils’ defense has regressed in Manny Diaz’s second season, but their offense has consistently scored, putting up at least 34 points in five of its last six games. Quarterback Darian Mensah is expected to lead Duke’s scoring efforts. Virginia’s offensive performance is a concern, as quarterback Chandler Morris, who left the Wake Forest loss with a head/neck injury, is optimistic about playing. However, the Cavaliers’ offense has underperformed projections by double digits in three of their last four games, even with Morris healthy for most of that period. If the game remains close in the second half, Virginia’s 4-2 record in one-score finishes could give them an advantage over Duke, who is 1-2 in such contests.
Current line: Duke -4.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Duke by 1.6 | FPI projection: Duke by 2.5
No. 16 Georgia Tech at Boston College (3:30 p.m. ET, ACCN)
Boston College’s offense is at its weakest in three years, and its defense is the worst since 1978, according to SP+ metrics. While Georgia Tech also has defensive challenges, they are not as severe. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a bye week, which provided a much-needed rest for quarterback Haynes King, who has been one of the country’s most effective signal-callers recently. Assuming a victory against Boston College, Georgia Tech faces two crucial home games: a matchup against Pitt with potential ACC Championship implications, followed by a highly anticipated revenge game against Georgia, a contest coach Brent Key has reportedly envisioned for a year.
Current line: Tech -16.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 18.6 | FPI projection: Tech by 14.3
CFP Tier 4: The Battle for Remaining Playoff Spots
Tier 4 of the CFP contenders, comprising 10-11 teams, is a "Thunderdome" scenario, with competition for potentially only two available bids. Many of these teams are involved in the ACC title race, while others face critical Week 12 challenges.
No. 21 Iowa at No. 17 USC (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN)
Iowa has registered three losses, two against top-10 opponents, by a combined 10 points, indicating their competitive strength despite their record. The Hawkeyes’ improved run game could exploit USC’s defense, which ranks 126th in rushing success rate allowed. While USC is strong against the pass, Iowa’s offensive scheme often minimizes this factor. The matchup between USC’s fourth-ranked offense in points per drive and Iowa’s seventh-ranked defense is a clash of elites. Iowa has limited two top-15 offenses to 31 total points, while USC has scored 55 against two top-15 defenses. Weather could also play a role, with early-afternoon downpours forecast for Los Angeles.
Current line: USC -6.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 4.5 | FPI projection: USC by 7.5
Clemson at No. 20 Louisville (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Clemson’s offense, led by Cade Klubnik, has shown signs of finding its rhythm, averaging 37 points per game in his last four starts. Their defense, after struggling against SMU and Duke, delivered a strong performance against Florida State. Clemson’s defensive front, while not as dominant as expected, could pose problems for Louisville, whose offense has been hampered by running back injuries and a high rate of negative plays (34.0% of snaps, 106th nationally). If quarterback Miller Moss faces consistent pressure, Louisville’s ACC and CFP aspirations could be jeopardized.
Current line: Louisville -2.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 5.9 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.2
No. 13 Utah at Baylor (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Baylor’s defense has been a season-long liability, conceding 37 points per game in their four losses, though it showed improvement in a recent 30-3 victory over UCF and generally prevents big plays. Utah, in contrast, has achieved seven dominant wins by an average of 36 points, with losses only to the Big 12’s two highest-ranked teams. Quarterback Devon Dampier leads a highly efficient Utes offense, and Utah’s defense is arguably the best Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson has faced this season.
Current line: Utah -7.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 13.5 | FPI projection: Utah by 8.7
No. 18 Michigan at Northwestern (Noon ET, Fox)
Northwestern, coming off a 38-17 loss to USC, seeks immediate redemption against Michigan. The game’s tempo is expected to be slow, potentially keeping the score tight. If Caleb Komolafe and Northwestern’s running game can find success against Michigan’s solid run defense, the contest at Wrigley Field could become tense. However, if the Wolverines consistently force Northwestern behind schedule, a low-scoring affair like 24-6 is plausible.
Current line: Michigan -11.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 11.4 | FPI projection: Michigan by 9.0
NC State at No. 15 Miami (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Miami secured a win against Syracuse last week, but their offense has consistently underperformed SP+ projections by nearly a touchdown per game since Week 3, primarily due to a lack of big plays. NC State’s defense, however, is notably susceptible to big plays, which could play into Miami’s favor. With NC State quarterback CJ Bailey’s recent performances, most Wolfpack games have exhibited potential for high-scoring affairs.
Current line: Miami -15.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 17.2 | FPI projection: Miami by 15.0
Group of 5 Conference Races Intensify
In the American Conference, four teams – USF, North Texas, Tulane, and East Carolina – could realistically finish with one conference loss, creating a complex race for the CFP bid. The likelihood of all four contenders (including Sun Belt favorite James Madison) winning their respective Week 12 games is only 45%, suggesting further intrigue.
No. 24 South Florida at Navy (Noon ET, ESPN2)
Navy’s reliance on a strong running game, spearheaded by Blake Horvath, who recently returned from injury, could enable them to control possession and limit USF’s high-tempo offense. However, USF has been prolific, scoring at least 48 points in five of their last six games, indicating their ability to score regardless of possession time.
Current line: USF -9.5 | SP+ projection: USF by 6.6 | FPI projection: USF by 10.3
Florida Atlantic at Tulane (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
FAU operates at a high tempo and frequently attempts fourth-down conversions, possessing the explosiveness to challenge a Tulane defense that ranks 92nd in points per drive and has surrendered 80 points in its last two outings. However, FAU’s defense is significantly weaker, suggesting that even in a high-scoring contest, Jake Retzlaff and the Green Wave hold an advantage.
Current line: Tulane -17.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 13.4 | FPI projection: Tulane by 14.3
North Texas at UAB (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Similar to the FAU-Tulane matchup, UAB’s offense is capable of scoring, but their defense has consistently allowed high point totals, conceding at least 24 points in every game and 38 or more in five. Drew Mestemaker leads a North Texas offense that averages 44.4 points and 487.8 yards per game. UAB, having already secured a miracle upset against Memphis, is unlikely to repeat such a performance.
Current line: UNT -18.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 22.3 | FPI projection: UNT by 16.4
Appalachian State at James Madison (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+)
Appalachian State, after a promising 4-2 start, has lost three consecutive one-score games and now faces a formidable James Madison team led by quarterback Alonza Barnett III. JMU’s offense has been potent, accumulating 150 points in its last three games. While App State famously disrupted JMU’s unbeaten streak in 2023, an upset this year would be significant.
Current line: JMU -20.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 22.7 | FPI projection: JMU by 17.3
Week 12 Chaos Superfecta
To illustrate the potential for upsets, consider the statistical chances of a "chaos superfecta." SP+ projects only a 45% chance that No. 18 Michigan (76% win probability against Northwestern), No. 13 Utah (80% against Baylor), No. 15 Miami (86% against NC State), and No. 6 Ole Miss (86% against Florida) all secure victories this weekend. This highlights the inherent unpredictability of college football.
Additional Key Matchups Across the Nation
Friday Evening:
Minnesota at No. 8 Oregon (9 p.m. ET, Fox): Oregon, adopting a more "Big Ten" style of play, has won its last two games with low scores (21-7 and 18-16), including a cold, wet contest in Iowa City. If Minnesota’s defense performs well on the road, Oregon could find itself in another grind-it-out affair.
Current line: Oregon -25.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 25.5 | FPI projection: Oregon by 25.4
Early Saturday:
South Carolina at No. 3 Texas A&M (Noon ET, ESPN): Under coach Shane Beamer, South Carolina holds a 3-18 record as an underdog in September and October but improves to 6-4 in November. Despite a challenging season, the Gamecocks remain an athletic and dangerous opponent. Texas A&M, however, has consistently exceeded SP+ projections by 12.2 points per game since October.
Current line: A&M -19.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 21.5 | FPI projection: A&M by 12.5
Wisconsin at No. 2 Indiana (Noon ET, BTN): Indiana has dominated teams ranked outside the SP+ top 60, winning by an average margin of 51-9. Wisconsin, ranked 90th, faces a significant challenge. While the Badgers’ defense has improved and freshman QB Carter Smith added a new dimension to their run game in last week’s upset of Washington, Indiana is expected to prevail comfortably.
Current line: IU -29.5 | SP+ projection: IU by 34.6 | FPI projection: IU by 28.7
Arizona at No. 25 Cincinnati (Noon ET, FS1): Cincinnati, with an important game against BYU next week that could impact a Big 12 championship bid, must first contend with an Arizona team that has won two straight and is pushing for an eight or nine-win season. Arizona boasts an excellent defense, but Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby is the most effective quarterback they have faced this season.
Current line: Cincy -6.5 | SP+ projection: Cincy by 2.1 | FPI projection: Cincy by 4.6
Arkansas at LSU (12:45 p.m. ET, SECN): Arkansas is projected as an underdog in its final three games, raising the possibility of a team with a top-10 offense (seventh in offensive SP+) finishing 2-10. LSU’s offense, however, has been in disarray, potentially limiting their ability to exploit Arkansas’ struggling defense.
Current line: LSU -5.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 4.6 | FPI projection: LSU by 5.2
Saturday Afternoon:
UCF at No. 7 Texas Tech (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox): UCF retains bowl eligibility aspirations and possesses the athleticism to challenge Texas Tech, particularly if the Red Raiders are weary after last week’s "College GameDay" festivities. However, UCF ranks 81st in points per drive and has not faced a top-40 defense this season, while Texas Tech’s defense ranks fifth in SP+.
Current line: Tech -23.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 23.9 | FPI projection: Tech by 18.2
Memphis at East Carolina (4 p.m. ET, ESPNU): An ECU victory in this home toss-up would significantly boost the Pirates’ American Conference contention. After a heartbreaking loss to Tulane, Memphis’s resilience will be tested against ECU’s aggressive, risk-taking defense known for creating havoc.
Current line: ECU -2.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 0.9 | FPI projection: ECU by 0.3
North Carolina at Wake Forest (4:30 p.m. ET, The CW): This game features two of the country’s improving defenses. Wake Forest has allowed 14 or fewer points in three of its last four games, while North Carolina, now 4-5, maintains bowl hopes due to a defense that has conceded 15.8 points per game over the past month. A low-scoring affair is anticipated.
Current line: Wake -6.5 | SP+ projection: Wake by 9.3 | FPI projection: Wake by 4.9
Penn State at Michigan State (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS): Following a period of struggles, Penn State has shown consistency, challenging Ohio State and losing close games to Iowa and Indiana. The 3-6 Nittany Lions still aim for bowl eligibility, but Michigan State’s defense is improving, and their offense, with dual quarterbacks Aidan Chiles and Alessio Milivojevic, could present surprises.
Current line: PSU -7.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 14.6 | FPI projection: PSU by 9.1
New Mexico State at No. 23 Tennessee (4:15 p.m. ET, SECN): After a bye week following their likely CFP elimination, Tennessee prepares for the homestretch, including a trip to Florida and a potential Rivalry Week matchup against Vanderbilt. They host an NMSU team that plays physically but lacks the offensive firepower to pose a significant threat.
Current line: UT -40.5 | SP+ projection: UT by 32.8 | FPI projection: UT by 38.8
Saturday Evening:
Florida at No. 6 Ole Miss (7 p.m. ET, ESPN): Last year, a loss to Florida ended Ole Miss’s playoff hopes. Lane Kiffin’s team will undoubtedly remember that setback, adding an element of revenge to this year’s contest.
Current line: Ole Miss -14.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 17.3 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 10.0
UCLA at No. 1 Ohio State (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC): Ohio State has not played a game decided by fewer than 18 points since Week 1. The unbeaten Buckeyes have largely cruised, but this week could be an opportunity to establish their run game against a UCLA defense that ranks 136th nationally in rushing success rate allowed and 104th in yards allowed per carry.
Current line: OSU -32.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 35.4 | FPI projection: OSU by 33.9
Mississippi State at Missouri (7:45 p.m. ET, SECN): With Missouri’s Beau Pribula doubtful due to injury, third-stringer Matt Zollers
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