Anshari Taslim
The highly anticipated 2026 NBA Finals, featuring a compelling clash between the New York Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs, is set to commence this Wednesday in San Antonio, with betting markets already establishing the Spurs as the favorites. This assessment notably contrasts with earlier commentary from NBA Hall of Famer Reggie Miller, who, during Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals between the Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder, declared his conviction that the Knicks would be favored in the Finals. Miller’s assertion, made to the television audience, was met with immediate skepticism by broadcast partner Jamal Crawford, who playfully suggested Miller might have been "impaired from an adult beverage."
Contrary to Miller’s prediction, the betting lines from FanDuel for the 2026 NBA Finals place the San Antonio Spurs as significant -190 favorites to secure the NBA championship. The New York Knicks, representing the Eastern Conference, enter the series as +160 underdogs to lift the coveted Larry O’Brien Trophy. This establishes a clear market expectation for the outcome of the best-of-seven series.
Further illustrating the market’s perspective, the NBA Finals Most Valuable Player (MVP) futures betting market highlights 7-foot-4 San Antonio phenom Victor Wembanyama as the overwhelming -175 favorite to claim the prestigious individual award. New York’s dynamic point guard and leading scorer, Jalen Brunson, follows as the second choice, listed at +210. These odds reflect the perceived impact and central roles of both players within their respective teams, with Wembanyama’s dual-threat ability on both ends of the court giving him the edge in early projections.
However, SportsLine NBA expert Larry Hartstein, renowned for his astute analysis and successful betting track record, has identified specific betting opportunities beyond the straightforward series and MVP futures. Hartstein boasts an impressive 100-69 record on his last 169 NBA picks, translating to a substantial +1751 profit for $100 bettors. His detailed analysis suggests that the most advantageous wagers for the upcoming series lie in particular markets, including two selections that offer attractive plus-money payouts. Hartstein’s three best NBA betting plays for the 2026 NBA Finals focus on series duration, the eventual winner, and a specific player prop involving three-point shooting.
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Expert Play 1: Extended Series and Spurs Victory in Seven Games
Hartstein’s primary prediction involves the duration of the series, with a play on Over 5.5 Games at -170. This suggests a strong expectation that the Finals will extend to at least six games, if not the full seven. This projection is underpinned by recent historical trends in the NBA Finals; five of the last seven championship series have required at least six games to determine a victor, indicating a propensity for closely contested matchups at the highest level.
Beyond the general series length, Hartstein specifically favors the San Antonio Spurs to clinch the championship in the deciding game, recommending a bet on Spurs to win series 4-3 at +380. This specific outcome offers substantial plus-money value, reflecting the anticipated competitive nature of the series despite the Spurs being the overall favorites.
A significant factor contributing to Hartstein’s outlook is the exceptional home-court performance of both teams throughout the 2025-2026 NBA season. The San Antonio Spurs concluded the regular season with an impressive 32-8 record on their home floor, ranking as the second-best home record across the entire league. Similarly, the New York Knicks showcased their dominance at Madison Square Garden, compiling a 30-10 record, which placed them fourth in the league for home-court efficiency. The regular-season matchups between these two teams further support the notion of a tightly contested series; each team successfully defended its home court against the other during the season. Additionally, the Knicks secured a victory over the Spurs in the NBA Cup Final, a neutral-site game played in Las Vegas, adding another layer of competitive history between the two franchises. The implication of these strong home records is that if both teams consistently hold serve on their respective courts, the series is highly likely to reach at least six or even seven games.
Hartstein elaborated on his rationale for predicting a Spurs victory in seven games, acknowledging the formidable challenge posed by the Knicks. "Yes, the Eastern Conference is weaker, but the Knicks are formidable," Hartstein stated. "They’ve won 11 straight playoff games by nearly 24 points per game. They have the most clutch player in the series, Brunson, and they’ve got a secondary offensive creator in Karl-Anthony Towns who can take some pressure off of Brunson. That’s a luxury the Thunder didn’t have due to injuries." This highlights the Knicks’ impressive playoff run, showcasing their current momentum and the significant offensive firepower provided by Jalen Brunson, who has consistently delivered in high-pressure situations, and the valuable addition of Karl-Anthony Towns, whose ability to create his own shot and space the floor complements Brunson effectively. The absence of similar secondary creation for the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, due to injuries, was a critical factor in their elimination.
Despite the Knicks’ strengths, Hartstein ultimately believes the Spurs will prevail. "Ultimately, I like the Spurs to pull this out in seven, thanks to Wembanyama, superior depth and homecourt advantage," he concluded. Wembanyama’s unparalleled two-way impact, combining elite rim protection with versatile offensive skills, is expected to be a decisive factor. His ability to alter shots defensively, rebound, and initiate fast breaks, coupled with his scoring prowess, makes him a generational talent capable of swinging a series. Furthermore, the Spurs’ "superior depth" implies a more robust and adaptable supporting cast, capable of sustaining high-level play across an extended series, mitigating fatigue and matchup disadvantages. The crucial home-court advantage, earned by the Spurs’ superior regular-season record, is also seen as a critical element in a tightly contested Game 7 scenario.
Expert Play 2: Julian Champagnie to Lead Series in 3-Pointers
For his second plus-money pick, Larry Hartstein has identified a player prop bet with significant value: Julian Champagnie to lead the series in 3-pointers at +290. This wager focuses on the performance of a specific role player, offering a high payout for a statistically plausible outcome. Hartstein’s attention is drawn to Champagnie’s recent form and his specific skill set.
Champagnie, a key perimeter threat for the Spurs, showcased a remarkable surge in efficiency during the latter stages of the Western Conference Finals. After a challenging start where he converted only 6-of-31 (19.4%) from beyond the arc in the initial games, Champagnie found his rhythm, making an impressive 12-of-24 (50.0%) from three-point range over the final three games of the series. This hot streak proved instrumental in helping the Spurs overcome the reigning champion Thunder, highlighting his capability to provide crucial spacing and scoring bursts.
Hartstein’s preference for Champagnie over teammate Devin Vassell, who is also listed at +290 in the same market, stems from a nuanced understanding of their respective roles and expected defensive assignments. While both players averaged slightly over six three-point attempts per game during the regular season, Champagnie is predominantly utilized as a spot-up shooter, specializing in catch-and-shoot opportunities. In contrast, Vassell possesses a more versatile offensive game, involving more off-the-dribble creation, which is likely to draw the attention of tougher, more dedicated perimeter defenders from the Knicks. By being primarily a spot-up threat, Champagnie might find himself in more favorable positions with less defensive pressure.
A key piece of statistical evidence supporting this pick is Champagnie’s historical performance against the Knicks. During the regular season, he delivered a career-defining performance against New York, erupting for a franchise-record 11 three-pointers in a 134-132 home victory over the Knicks. This specific game serves as a testament to his potential to exploit the Knicks’ defense from beyond the arc.
Hartstein further elaborated on a potential tactical advantage for Champagnie. "Many believe the Knicks will put Brunson on Champagnie. If so, Champagnie should be able to exploit one of New York’s weakest defenders." Jalen Brunson, while an elite offensive player, is often targeted defensively due to his size and defensive limitations. If the Knicks’ defensive scheme involves Brunson guarding Champagnie, it could present numerous opportunities for Champagnie to get open looks, either through screens, off-ball movement, or direct isolation plays, capitalizing on the matchup. This tactical consideration, combined with Champagnie’s recent form and proven ability against the Knicks, makes him an intriguing dark horse candidate to lead the series in three-pointers.
Conclusion
As the 2026 NBA Finals prepare to tip off, the betting landscape offers a variety of opportunities for informed bettors. While the Spurs enter as series favorites and Victor Wembanyama as the Finals MVP frontrunner, expert analysis from Larry Hartstein suggests that significant value can be found in more specific markets. His predictions for an extended, hard-fought series culminating in a Spurs victory in seven games, alongside the high-value prop bet on Julian Champagnie’s three-point shooting prowess, provide a comprehensive betting strategy for the championship showdown. These expert insights underscore the dynamic nature of NBA Finals betting, where deep analysis of team trends, individual matchups, and player form can uncover advantageous wagers.
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