Anshari Taslim
The New York Knicks are poised to extend their advantage in the 2026 NBA Finals, aiming to push the San Antonio Spurs to the brink of elimination as the series shifts to Madison Square Garden for Game 3 on Monday night. New York currently holds a commanding 2-0 series lead, following a narrow 105-104 victory in Game 2 on Friday. The Spurs, who finished the regular season with an impressive 62-20 record as the second seed in the Western Conference, are making their first NBA Finals appearance since 2013-14, when they defeated the Miami Heat 4-1 to claim the championship. The Knicks, the third seed in the Eastern Conference with a 53-29 record, have reached the Finals for the first time since 1998-99, a series they ultimately lost to these same San Antonio Spurs by a 4-1 margin.
Tip-off for the highly anticipated Game 3 is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET from the iconic Madison Square Garden in New York City. Historically, the Spurs hold a slight edge in their all-time postseason encounters, leading the series 4-3. However, the Knicks have a favorable record at MSG against San Antonio in playoff contests, with a 2-1 advantage. FanDuel Sportsbook currently lists New York as a 2.5-point favorite for Game 3, with the over/under for total points set at 216.5. The money line stands at Spurs +110 and Knicks -131.
The SportsLine Projection Model, a respected analytical tool in sports betting, has conducted 10,000 simulations of every NBA game. This model has demonstrated significant success over the past eight-plus seasons, generating well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks. Entering the 2026 NBA Finals, the model boasts a remarkable 26-10 record (72%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season, providing substantial returns for those who followed its recommendations on various betting platforms and applications.
The SportsLine model has now applied its rigorous simulation process to the Spurs vs. Knicks Game 3 matchup, revealing its latest NBA picks and betting predictions. Following 10,000 detailed simulations, the model has identified a strong lean towards the ‘Under’ for the total points scored in Game 3. The projection for combined points falls at 214, which is below the established over/under line of 216.5. This ‘Under’ outcome has occurred in 53.1% of the simulations, positioning it as a compelling choice for bettors, particularly those considering NBA parlay betting strategies.
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Several factors contribute to the model’s ‘Under’ prediction. Historically, the ‘Under’ has hit in each of the last three head-to-head matchups between the Spurs and the Knicks. Furthermore, recent team trends support this outlook, with the ‘Under’ hitting in four of San Antonio’s past six games and three of New York’s past five. When the total line is set above 205 points, the ‘Under’ has hit in 55 of San Antonio’s last 103 games (with one push) and in 53 of New York’s last 99 games, indicating a consistent pattern of lower-scoring affairs under these conditions for both teams.
Individual player projections from the SportsLine model also suggest a contest that, while competitive, may not feature explosive offensive outputs. For the San Antonio Spurs, only three players are projected to score 14.8 points or more. French phenom Victor Wembanyama is predicted to lead the Spurs’ scoring efforts with an estimated 27.7 points. On the New York side, Jalen Brunson is projected to be the leading scorer for the Knicks with 25.8 points, with four New York players expected to reach or exceed 15 points. These projections imply a game where defensive execution and efficient, rather than high-volume, scoring could be paramount.
The Knicks’ journey to the Finals has been marked by their gritty defense and the stellar play of their backcourt, particularly Brunson. Their regular-season performance, securing the third seed in a competitive Eastern Conference, showcased their resilience and tactical discipline under head coach Tom Thibodeau. Brunson’s ability to consistently create offense, both for himself and his teammates, has been a cornerstone of their success throughout the season and the playoffs. The atmosphere at Madison Square Garden, known for its passionate and vocal fanbase, is expected to provide a significant home-court advantage, potentially fueling the Knicks’ defensive intensity.
Conversely, the San Antonio Spurs have defied expectations with their remarkable 62-20 regular-season record, establishing themselves as a Western Conference powerhouse. Much of their success can be attributed to the generational talent of Victor Wembanyama, whose impact on both ends of the floor has been transformative. His unique combination of size, skill, and defensive prowess has made the Spurs a formidable opponent. Under the seasoned guidance of head coach Gregg Popovich, the Spurs have developed a cohesive unit that blends veteran experience with youthful exuberance. However, facing a 0-2 deficit on the road in the Finals presents an immense challenge, demanding significant strategic adjustments and heightened performance from every player.
The historical rivalry between these two franchises adds another layer of intrigue to this Finals series. Their 1999 NBA Finals clash saw the Spurs claim their first championship, defeating the Knicks 4-1. While the rosters have completely changed, the institutional memory of that series and the 2014 Finals victory against Miami (which marked the Spurs’ fifth title) underscores San Antonio’s rich championship pedigree. For the Knicks, reaching the Finals again after nearly three decades represents a significant milestone, and the opportunity to secure a championship at home against a historical rival would be particularly poignant.
Game 3 is often considered a pivotal moment in any best-of-seven series. A Knicks victory would give them an almost insurmountable 3-0 lead, a deficit from which no NBA team has ever recovered in playoff history. Conversely, a Spurs win would shift the momentum, cutting the series lead to 2-1 and injecting renewed hope into their championship aspirations as they look to defend their home court in subsequent games. The tactical adjustments made by both coaching staffs, the individual performances of key players under pressure, and the energy of the New York crowd will all play crucial roles in determining the outcome of this critical contest.
The SportsLine model’s comprehensive analysis also includes a specific prediction for which side of the spread will hit, doing so in "well over 50%" of its simulations. Bettors interested in leveraging this data can find the full details of the model’s NBA picks, including its spread selection for Spurs vs. Knicks Game 3, by visiting SportsLine. The high stakes, historical context, and the current series standing ensure that Game 3 of the 2026 NBA Finals will be a closely watched and fiercely contested affair.
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