Ali Akbar Rosady
The impending clash between Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano this Saturday presents a unique analytical challenge for combat sports observers, primarily due to the unprecedented combined 27 years of inactivity between the two main event participants. While betting markets heavily favor Rousey, reflecting her status as one of women’s mixed martial arts’ most accomplished figures, UFC legend Matt Brown has offered a dissenting view, predicting a victory for Carano despite acknowledging the likelihood of a less-than-stellar contest.
Ronda Rousey, an Olympic bronze medalist in judo from the 2008 Beijing Games, ascended to superstardom as the inaugural UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion. Her professional MMA record, culminating at 12-2, was initially marked by a dominant 12-0 run where she dispatched opponents with swift, often first-round finishes, primarily utilizing her signature armbar submissions and powerful judo throws. Her reign included notable victories over formidable contenders such as Miesha Tate, Cat Zingano, and Alexis Davis, establishing her as a transcendent figure in the sport. However, her career concluded with consecutive knockout losses, first to Holly Holm at UFC 193 in November 2015, and subsequently to Amanda Nunes at UFC 207 in December 2016. Following the Nunes defeat, Rousey largely stepped away from professional fighting, with this Saturday’s potential bout marking her first competitive return in nearly a decade.
Gina Carano, a pioneering figure in women’s MMA, preceded Rousey’s rise to prominence. Carano’s initial professional record of 7-0 established her as one of the sport’s first major female stars, captivating audiences with her striking prowess and charisma. Her career reached its zenith with a highly anticipated Strikeforce championship bout against Cris Cyborg in August 2009. Carano suffered a devastating first-round TKO loss in that contest, which ultimately marked her final appearance in a professional MMA cage. Her return this Saturday would signify an extraordinary 17-year hiatus from active competition, an almost unparalleled layoff in the higher echelons of professional fighting.
The considerable time away from the sport for both fighters forms the crux of Brown’s skepticism regarding the quality of the upcoming fight. Speaking on a recent episode of The Fighter vs. The Writer podcast, Brown articulated his low expectations. "I think it’s going to be an ugly fight for the most part," Brown stated, before outlining his rationale for picking Carano, a choice he admits carries a degree of personal bias due to his admiration for Carano.
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Brown’s analysis hinges on several key factors. Firstly, he suggests Carano possesses a natural size advantage. "I think Gina’s naturally a little bit bigger than Ronda," Brown commented, implying that this physical attribute could play a significant role, particularly after such extended periods of inactivity where fight-night conditioning and weight management become even more critical variables. Secondly, Brown speculated on the fighters’ respective commitment to maintaining fitness during their time away from the sport. "I don’t know either of them personally, but I’m going to assume just from the personalities that I know online and the media, that Carano probably attempted at least to stay in better shape. Where Ronda I think just quit training all together and was just out and now she’s coming back," Brown posited. This assumption about differential discipline during their layoffs suggests Carano might enter the bout with a more robust foundational fitness level, an invaluable asset given the demands of high-level MMA.
Furthermore, Brown highlighted what he perceives as the predictability of Rousey’s fighting style. While Rousey’s judo background provided an exceptional foundation for her grappling game, Brown argued that her approach to takedowns in MMA was often singular. "Ronda is a lot more predictable. For one thing, she doesn’t go and shoot double legs. It’s going to be a judo style takedown, which is a little bit more predictable. She’s got to get in the clinch and try to attempt to throw," Brown explained. He contended that this predictability makes Rousey’s primary offensive threats more easily neutralized. "If Gina does some of the basic things, she should be able to mitigate that," Brown added, suggesting that fundamental defensive techniques could prove effective against Rousey’s established patterns.
Brown elaborated on the limitations of translating pure judo into no-gi mixed martial arts, referencing Rousey’s Olympic pedigree. While acknowledging judo as an "amazing sport," Brown asserted that "only certain moves carry over" effectively into the MMA context, especially without the gi for grip fighting. He pointed to Holly Holm’s masterful performance against Rousey in 2015 as a definitive blueprint for neutralizing Rousey’s grappling-centric offense. In that historic bout at UFC 193, Holm, a former professional boxer, meticulously evaded Rousey’s clinch attempts and takedown entries, preventing the fight from going to the ground where Rousey was most dangerous. Holm’s defensive strategy effectively shut down Rousey’s grappling, allowing her to capitalize on her superior striking, ultimately culminating in a thunderous head kick knockout that dethroned the then-unbeaten champion.
"The thing is everything Ronda does can be mitigated pretty easily," Brown stated, qualifying the "easily" by adding, "I shouldn’t say easily but you can learn pretty quickly how to not get armbarred. You can learn pretty quickly how to not get judo tossed. Holly Holm wrote the blueprint on it. I don’t think Ronda got a single takedown on her." Brown’s assessment underscored the notion that while Rousey’s initial burst of dominance relied on opponents’ unfamiliarity with her specific judo applications, subsequent fighters, particularly those with strong defensive grappling or striking, found ways to counter her. He also critiqued Rousey’s striking development, suggesting it "never got better" despite extensive training. "I don’t think she has the natural intuitiveness to be a striker ever," Brown concluded, suggesting this enduring deficiency, combined with Carano’s potential size advantage and better conditioning during layoff, could create an opening for Carano.
Conversely, Brown argued that Carano faces a less complex challenge in preparing for Rousey. "So Gina has a limited amount of things she has to train for against Ronda," he noted, implying that focusing on defending Rousey’s known judo entries and clinch work would be a more straightforward task than Rousey’s hypothetical need to drastically improve her striking after years away.
The extended layoffs for both fighters lead Brown to anticipate a contest that will fall short of an "instant classic." He drew parallels to the recent boxing exhibition between social media personality Jake Paul and boxing icon Mike Tyson, a bout that generated immense viewership on Netflix but was widely criticized for its underwhelming in-ring action. Tyson, at 58 years old and having been out of professional competition for decades, exhibited diminished speed and power, leading to a fight that disappointed many ardent boxing fans. Brown suggested a similar scenario could unfold with Rousey fighting for the first time in a decade and Carano returning after 17 years.
"Good luck on that [being a compelling fight]," Brown remarked, expressing his belief that viewers might regret dedicating their Saturday night to the event. "You’re going to go to bed next Saturday night after that fight and be like ‘why did I do this? I should have been asleep.’ I’m going to be like why am I still up watching this? My kids are going to want to stay up and watch it. Unfortunately, I’ll probably be stuck staying up to watch it but there’s nothing exciting about this to me." Brown’s candid assessment reflects a broader sentiment among some veteran fight analysts regarding the potential for high-profile comeback fights featuring long-retired athletes.
Matt Brown’s comprehensive analysis provides a counter-narrative to the prevailing betting odds, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of long layoffs and the strategic vulnerabilities he perceives in Ronda Rousey’s established fighting style. While the excitement surrounding the return of two pioneering figures in women’s MMA is undeniable, Brown’s forecast suggests that the quality of the contest itself may not live up to the considerable hype.
Listen to new episodes of The Fighter vs. The Writer every Tuesday with audio-only versions of the podcast available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeartRadio.
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