NBA player props, picks, odds: Target Pascal Siakam with Thursday NBA best bets

SportsLine’s "Inside the Lines" team, renowned for its proprietary computer model that simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, has identified several high-value player prop opportunities for Thursday’s matchups. This model has established a robust track record, generating over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight seasons, including a notable 26-13 run on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season. Such analytical rigor underpins the recommendations for player props, which have gained significant traction across online sports betting platforms.

Focus on Pascal Siakam Amidst Pacers’ Struggles

One of the primary targets for Thursday’s player prop analysis centers on Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam. The Pacers, who reportedly advanced to the NBA Finals last season, have commenced the current 2025-26 campaign with a challenging 1-10 record, compounded by significant injury woes. Key guards Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin are both sidelined, leaving Siakam to shoulder an amplified offensive load.

Currently, Siakam leads Indiana’s healthy roster with averages of 24.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game. However, SportsLine’s analysis suggests that his assist numbers may be inflated by circumstance and are poised for regression. The recommended prop bet targets Siakam to go Under 4.5 assists at plus-money odds in Thursday night’s contest against the Phoenix Suns.

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Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s senior data analyst, provided specific rationale for this projection. "Siakam may have 10 assist opportunities passing out to open shooters, but the Pacers are shooting like garbage from 3pt range with a dead last 29.6% team 3pt%," Oh stated. This abysmal team shooting percentage significantly diminishes the likelihood of Siakam converting potential assists into actual assists. Furthermore, the Phoenix Suns present a formidable defensive challenge, ranking in the top half of the league in defending the three-point shot, and proving particularly stingy at home where they allow opponents just 33% shooting from beyond the arc.

While the Suns will be playing on a back-to-back, Oh noted that their "younger, defensive oriented" roster is better equipped to handle the physical demands compared to previous iterations of the team. Crucially, Siakam’s recent individual performance shows a trend supporting the "under" bet; he has exceeded five assists only twice in his last seven appearances.

The return of guard T.J. McConnell to the Pacers’ lineup also factors into the projection. Oh explained, "T.J. McConnell did make his return the other night. He should alleviate some of the play-making pressure on Siakam and let him focus on his own scoring which is far more efficient than the rest of the team." McConnell’s offensive style, characterized by aggressive penetration and mid-range pull-ups, tends to generate fewer assist opportunities for teammates, further diminishing Siakam’s potential for high assist totals. While Siakam’s current season assist average (5.6) is higher than last season’s (3.4), the confluence of team shooting struggles, opponent defense, and McConnell’s re-integration suggests a more modest assist output for Thursday’s game.

Dyson Daniels’ Scoring Regression Projected for Hawks

Another player prop drawing expert attention is Dyson Daniels of the Atlanta Hawks, with a recommendation for him to go Under 14.5 points at -120 odds. The Hawks have experienced a notable shift in performance, particularly in the absence of star guard Trae Young. Atlanta holds a 6-2 record without Young, including a game where he departed early due to injury.

Daniels initially saw a significant uptick in his scoring role during Young’s absence, recording 18 points in three consecutive games. However, Stephen Oh cautioned against extrapolating this recent surge. "The high scoring was due to unsustainably high shooting percentages (24/34, 70.5% shooting over 3 games)," Oh observed. He clarified that this projection is "not a fade on the player," acknowledging Daniels’ strong overall play, but rather an assessment that he is not consistently looking to score at the elevated rate seen in those specific stretches.

The line of 14.5 points is based on Daniels’ ’24-25 average of 14.1 points. SportsLine’s model projects Daniels to score 12.5 points on Thursday, indicating a strong likelihood of falling below the prop line. Historically, Daniels has gone under 14.5 points in 56% of relevant games. Furthermore, a broader trend analysis reveals that the "Under" has been a profitable play for Daniels, registering a 13-3 run since the end of last season. This statistical pattern, combined with the unsustainable nature of his recent shooting efficiency, underpins the recommendation for the Under.

Donovan Mitchell’s Three-Point Output Under Scrutiny

Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell is also featured in Thursday’s player prop recommendations, with a focus on his three-point shooting. The prop bet suggests Mitchell will go Under 3.5 made 3-pointers at odds of +108.

Stephen Oh assessed the line as "fair" given Mitchell’s historical performance, noting his 3.5 home average and a 45.5% rate of going under 3.5 made threes since last season. While Mitchell enters the game having gone over this line in five of his last six appearances, Oh suggested this trend might be ripe for correction.

The matchup against the Toronto Raptors provides specific context. Last season, Mitchell averaged three made three-pointers against Toronto, going under the 3.5 line in two of three contests. Oh further highlighted that other guards averaging three or more made three-pointers typically perform less efficiently from beyond the arc when facing Toronto at home, averaging 3.4 made threes compared to 4.1 when playing in Toronto.

Mitchell is also in a relative shooting slump, converting just 28 of 72 field goal attempts (38.8%) over his last three games. Oh concluded, "The Cavs don’t need Mitchell to carry them and he’s in a bit of a shooting slump (28/72, 38.8% from the field last 3 games). I don’t see him forcing it from three vs the long, athletic wings that the Raptors have and with so many teammates stepping up when he can take these guys off the dribble and put up plenty efficient points." The presence of multiple contributing teammates on the Cavaliers allows Mitchell to prioritize efficient scoring, potentially reducing his volume of riskier three-point attempts, especially against a defensively challenging opponent like the Raptors.

As Thursday’s NBA schedule unfolds, these data-driven player prop analyses offer bettors specific, statistically-backed insights into individual performances. The meticulous methodology employed by SportsLine’s experts aims to identify value by combining current form, historical trends, and intricate matchup dynamics across the league’s competitive landscape.