Ali Akbar Rosady
Conor McGregor, arguably the most significant global superstar in combat sports history, is poised to make his long-awaited return to the Octagon at UFC 329 on Saturday, where he is slated to face former featherweight champion Max Holloway. This bout marks McGregor’s first competitive appearance since July 2021, when he suffered a devastating broken leg in his trilogy fight against Dustin Poirier at UFC 264. The protracted layoff, coupled with the severity of his injury, has fueled widespread skepticism among fighters, fans, and critics regarding McGregor’s ability to recapture the form that once saw him conquer two UFC divisions simultaneously. However, UFC welterweight knockout specialist Matt Brown, who had previously expressed doubts about McGregor ever fighting again, now posits that the immense pressure and pervasive questioning surrounding his comeback could paradoxically unlock McGregor’s peak performance against Holloway.
Brown articulated his evolving perspective on the latest episode of The Fighter vs. The Writer podcast. "We’re not going to see the same Conor, that’s for sure," Brown acknowledged, aligning with the general sentiment regarding McGregor’s five-year hiatus from consistent elite competition. "I don’t disagree with that at all. But there’s a couple things to take into account. For one, when we say we’re not going to see the same Conor McGregor, we know that, because he’s not going to have that same hunger he had before. But coming off a couple of losses, he’s got something to prove now."
McGregor, who holds a professional mixed martial arts record of 22 wins and 6 losses, has faced a challenging period in his career, securing only one victory in his last four fights, a 40-second knockout of Donald Cerrone in January 2020. His most recent outings against Dustin Poirier resulted in back-to-back losses in 2021, culminating in the leg injury that sidelined him. Prior to these setbacks, McGregor had attained unparalleled success, claiming the UFC Featherweight Championship in 2015 with a 13-second knockout of Jose Aldo, and subsequently capturing the Lightweight Championship in 2016 by defeating Eddie Alvarez. This historic achievement cemented his status as the first fighter in UFC history to hold two titles concurrently.
Brown emphasized the profound personal significance of the upcoming Holloway rematch. "This is a very, very big fight for him personally. Every Conor McGregor fight is big publicly, but personally, this is the world to him. He might have some of that hunger back," Brown stated, highlighting a potential psychological shift in the former champion. He elaborated on the intense stakes, asserting, "He’s got to win this fight. He’s got to prove motherf*ckers wrong. Not that he didn’t necessarily feel that before, but he was on top of the world. I’m sure he more expected to win versus have to win. This is putting him on the pressure cooker. He has to win this fight. This is a terrible look if he doesn’t win this fight. It really affects a lot of things going forward."
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The ramifications of McGregor’s performance at UFC 329 extend beyond immediate sporting prestige, intertwining with critical contractual and future career considerations. McGregor enters the Holloway bout with just one fight remaining on his current UFC contract. While his unparalleled drawing power ensures he will continue to attract significant viewership regardless of the outcome, a decisive loss to Holloway could drastically alter the trajectory of his career, impacting his negotiating leverage with the UFC and the nature of potential future matchups. Conversely, a convincing victory against a highly-ranked opponent like Holloway could propel him back into immediate title contention.
Brown underscored the stark contrast between the potential outcomes. "Does he fight again? Does he renegotiate with the UFC with one fight left on his contract after this?" Brown pondered. "There’s so many pieces where a win is such a massive difference here. Again, you could say that with every fight. The next fight is always the biggest fight. But this one feels a little bit different. Coming back, all the hype and he knows as well as we do, if he doesn’t win, everybody’s going to be like ‘don’t fight again, we don’t need to see this anymore.’"
The prospect of McGregor securing a win against Holloway is particularly enticing given the current landscape of the UFC lightweight division. Should he emerge victorious, a title fight against the reigning "BMF" champion and potential next lightweight challenger, Justin Gaethje, has already been mooted, with Gaethje publicly expressing interest in such a high-profile clash. Gaethje, known for his aggressive fighting style and knockout power, recently secured the "BMF" title with a spectacular head-kick knockout of Dustin Poirier. This potential championship pathway underscores the monumental stakes attached to McGregor’s performance against Holloway.
Brown acknowledged McGregor’s inherent star power, drawing parallels to boxing legend Floyd Mayweather. "It’s Conor, we’re always going to have demand, but the demand’s not going to be the same. If he goes and wins, and he beats Max Holloway, it will be huge. I’m just saying there’s going to be a big gap in the desire to see him again. I understand we’re always going to want to watch Conor. People don’t need to explain that to me. He could fight anybody, anywhere, any time just like Floyd Mayweather does and people still watch Floyd. But if he wins, there’s a huge difference in how much people [want to see him fight]. He understands all of this."
The selection of Max Holloway as McGregor’s comeback opponent has been a point of considerable discussion within the MMA community. Holloway, a former UFC Featherweight Champion with a professional record of 25 wins and 7 losses, is widely regarded as one of the most durable and high-volume strikers in the sport’s history. His recent record includes losses to reigning featherweight king Alexander Volkanovski (three times) and a lightweight interim title bout loss to Dustin Poirier in 2019, but he remains a top-tier contender. Despite the perceived challenge of facing a top-five ranked opponent immediately after a long layoff and a significant injury, Brown suggested there might be strategic rationale behind the matchmaking.
One critical factor highlighted by Brown is the agreed-upon weight class for the rematch: 170 pounds, or welterweight. McGregor has competed at welterweight several times in his career, notably in his two fights against Nate Diaz, and has consistently shown the ability to carry his power effectively at the heavier division. In contrast, Holloway has primarily competed at featherweight (145 pounds) throughout his career, with his only venture above that weight being his lightweight interim title fight against Poirier. This disparity in natural size and experience at welterweight could offer McGregor a significant physical advantage.
Brown drew a parallel to their initial encounter in August 2013, a fight McGregor won via unanimous decision despite tearing his ACL during the bout. "He out-physicalled Max the first time," Brown recounted. "He did a lot of takedowns. I know he tore his ACL during the fight, but he overall just out-physicalled him. He bullied him a little bit, pushed him around. It only makes sense to come back and do this at this bigger weight class where Conor appearingly so has adapted to that size, probably a long time ago."
Brown further analyzed Holloway’s recent performances, suggesting potential vulnerabilities that McGregor could exploit. He noted, "I think he looks at Max’s trajectory and Max has been fighting all the top guys, but in the last few fights, he’s been knocked out. He got taken down, which would all be stuff in Conor’s game plan." While Holloway has never been officially knocked out in his professional MMA career, he has sustained significant damage in some bouts and has faced opponents who have utilized takedowns effectively. Brown’s assessment points to a potential game plan for McGregor involving either a knockout finish or a strategy reminiscent of their first fight, where he leveraged his physical strength to control Holloway with takedowns and ground pressure.
Despite his detailed analysis of McGregor’s potential pathways to victory, Matt Brown maintained his prediction for Max Holloway to emerge victorious at UFC 329. However, he did not discount the possibility of McGregor defying expectations, especially given the monumental stakes. "I could see where Conor could have some hunger," Brown reiterated. "I could see where he could see a clear path to victory here. Of course, it’s not going to be easy. This is Max Holloway. This is not going to be an easy fight, and when I first heard about it, I was like that’s the last dude you want to come back against."
Brown concluded by emphasizing the extensive preparation time McGregor has had since his last bout, suggesting a meticulously crafted strategy for his return. "But the more you put the pieces together, it makes a lot more sense. Of course, Conor’s had [over two years] to think about it so he’s put a lot of pieces together." The upcoming UFC 329 main event thus stands as a pivotal moment for McGregor, a chance to silence doubters, reclaim his elite status, and dramatically reshape the narrative of his illustrious, yet recently challenged, career.
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