Ali Akbar Rosady
New York City is poised to host UFC 322, a marquee event featuring a highly anticipated main event where reigning welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena faces off against the formidable lightweight king, Islam Makhachev. Despite holding the welterweight title, Della Maddalena finds himself in an unfamiliar position as the betting underdog, with Makhachev entering Saturday’s pay-per-view as a significant favorite. This dynamic has sparked considerable debate among analysts and fans, raising questions about the champion’s overlooked strengths and potential pathways to victory against a fighter widely regarded as one of the sport’s pound-for-pound elite.
The narrative surrounding UFC 322 has largely been dominated by Makhachev’s audacious pursuit of a second divisional crown. The Dagestani phenom, boasting a professional record of 26-1, has carved out an impressive legacy in the lightweight division, establishing a new record for title defenses, surpassing esteemed names such as Khabib Nurmagomedov, B.J. Penn, Frankie Edgar, and Benson Henderson. Having vacated his lightweight belt, Makhachev’s move up to welterweight is seen by many as a direct challenge to the sport’s all-time greats, with a successful bid potentially cementing his place in the "GOAT" conversation. This overarching storyline, however, has inadvertently cast a shadow over the reigning welterweight champion, Jack Della Maddalena, who holds a commendable professional record of 17-2.
Della Maddalena, acutely aware of the prevailing sentiment, views the situation as a powerful motivator. "I’ve got everything to prove. But I like it that way," Della Maddalena conveyed to MMA Fighting. "It gives me more motivation. A lot of drive to prove I’m the champion and then solidify my spot as the top guy. I’m definitely the underdog. I feel like a little bit I’m being written off. Come fight night, and after the fight, I think there’s going to be a lot of different opinions on it." His comments underscore a champion’s resolve to challenge preconceptions and assert his dominance on the biggest stage.
The perceived lack of respect for Della Maddalena, a relatively new champion, stems partly from his championship tenure. While his victory over Belal Muhammad at UFC 315 was decisive, securing the welterweight strap, some observers contend that Muhammad’s grappling-heavy style and polarizing public persona may have obscured the full extent of Della Maddalena’s performance. By contrast, Makhachev’s reign in the lightweight division was characterized by consistent dominance over a roster of top contenders, culminating in a series of impressive finishes that solidified his reputation as an almost unstoppable force.
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Makhachev’s primary weapon is his suffocating grappling, a hallmark of fighters hailing from the Dagestani region. His Sambo background, combined with elite wrestling and submission prowess, has proven to be a nightmare matchup for numerous strikers throughout his career. While Della Maddalena is a natural welterweight, the champion himself has acknowledged that he may not possess a substantial size advantage over Makhachev, despite the latter’s 15-pound ascent from lightweight. The challenge, therefore, lies not merely in physical power, but in resisting Makhachev’s unparalleled ability to control opponents on the canvas.
A close examination of their most recent title defenses provides valuable insights into the potential dynamics of this contest. Makhachev secured a decisive finish over the elite striker Dustin Poirier, showcasing his ability to blend striking with relentless takedown attempts and submissions. Della Maddalena, on the other hand, outclassed the tenacious wrestler Belal Muhammad, demonstrating a significant evolution in his defensive grappling. Poirier, having experienced Makhachev’s pressure firsthand, sees a distinct opening for the welterweight champion. "It’s all going to come down to the takedown defense of JDM," Poirier stated to MMA Fighting. "If he can get back up to his feet, if he can use the fence, or stay off the fence, use his boxing, I think he definitely could give Islam a lot of troubles in the center of the octagon. He’s a great striker. He’s big and powerful."
A crucial element in Della Maddalena’s preparation and a potential "secret weapon" is the influence of Craig Jones, a two-time ADCC silver medalist and one of the most innovative minds in modern jiu-jitsu. Jones has been actively involved in shaping Della Maddalena’s grappling evolution, and his unique approach could prove pivotal in countering Makhachev’s relentless pressure. This strategic partnership has led several respected figures in MMA to pick Della Maddalena for the upset. American Top Team coach Din Thomas and welterweight contender Sean Brady are among those who believe the welterweight champion has the tools to dethrone Makhachev.
"He’s a breath of fresh air, and I’m with Brady on this one. I’m picking him to beat Islam," Thomas told MMA Junkie. "I think that Craig Jones is the answer in this… I think the answer lies within Craig Jones’ approach of blending in a jiu-jitsu style that these guys aren’t familiar with. We’ve seen it when Alexander Volkanovski fought Islam, and we’ve seen it when Jack fought Belal." Thomas elaborated on Della Maddalena’s performance against Muhammad at UFC 315, noting that while the champion stuffed six of Muhammad’s nine takedown attempts, the more significant factor was his ability to consistently return to his feet and avoid being held down. This resilience in transitional grappling, according to Thomas, bears Jones’ imprint and will be crucial against Makhachev.
"I think Jack’s going to be very difficult to take down and hold down. He might be taken down, but I think he’s going to be very difficult to hold down if he gets taken down," Thomas predicted. "I think on the feet, he’s so precise. I think he loses the first two rounds possibly, but I think he comes back and does damage later in the fight." This assessment suggests a potential war of attrition, where Della Maddalena’s striking accuracy and cardio could become decisive in the championship rounds.
Della Maddalena’s striking prowess was on full display against Muhammad at UFC 315, where he landed an impressive 200 strikes over 25 minutes, demonstrating both volume and precision. His longtime coach, Ben Vickers, believes that a similar strategy of sustained, brutal pressure could expose a vulnerability that Makhachev has rarely encountered. "I think Jack will knock him out…" Vickers stated on Submission Radio. "He’s not used to taking damage. He’s not used to being in tough fights with someone pushing the pace, and he’s been knocked out before." Vickers’ bold prediction is not entirely without precedent, as Poirier managed to trouble Makhachev on the feet, particularly in the earlier exchanges of their lightweight title bout. If Poirier, in the twilight of his career, could find success striking with Makhachev, Della Maddalena—a sharper, fresher, and naturally bigger striker—could potentially replicate, or even amplify, that success.
The current betting odds reflect a strong lean towards Makhachev, who is listed as nearly a three-to-one favorite. This contrasts sharply with a hypothetical matchup between Della Maddalena and lightweight champion Ilia Topuria, which is considered a pick’em. The prevailing sentiment among many fans and bettors is that UFC 322 will be Makhachev’s coronation in a second weight division. However, those closest to the welterweight champion, and even some within Makhachev’s inner circle, do not share that certainty.
Notably, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev’s mentor and former teammate, offered a surprising assessment. "I think Maddalena is the toughest opponent in Islam’s career," Nurmagomedov told Adam Zubayraev in a Russian-translated interview. "That’s my opinion, not Charles [Oliveira], no one else. None of those other fighters. Not even Ilia, if that fight were to happen. Maddalena is twice the size of Ilia. Taller, bigger, stronger legs, bigger frame. His boxing is just as good. And, in grappling, he scrambles really well if you’ve watched him. For me, if I were preparing Islam for either Ilia or Maddalena, I’d be more concerned about Maddalena." This endorsement from a figure as revered as Nurmagomedov underscores the genuine threat Della Maddalena poses.
Makhachev’s longtime coach, Javier Mendez, has prepared accordingly, acknowledging the magnitude of the challenge. Mendez admitted to having watched more tape on Della Maddalena than any previous opponent, a rare statement from one of MMA’s most experienced and decorated coaches. "Jack is such a tough customer that if we overlook him, which we haven’t. I’ve actually viewed Jack’s fight with Belal five times," Mendez told MMA Junkie. "I’ve never really done that. That’s how much I respect Jack."
Makhachev himself echoes his team’s respect for the upcoming fight. His training camp has been meticulously structured around Della Maddalena’s strengths, involving extensive preparation across Russia, Dubai, and New Jersey to secure the optimal sparring partners and body types to simulate the welterweight champion’s style. "It’s going to be a hard fight, honestly," Makhachev told MMA Junkie. "I saw his fight against Belal. He’s good, man. When he began fighting in the UFC, he had problems with wrestling, but now he’s improved because I’ve seen him training a lot with wrestlers and grapplers, and that’s why he’s champion right now. He’s good everywhere. But we will see who’s the best fighter in the world very soon."
As UFC 322 approaches, the stage is set for a pivotal clash between two elite fighters. Della Maddalena, the betting underdog, aims to leverage his refined striking, innovative grappling defense under Craig Jones, and inherent welterweight frame to retain his title. Makhachev, the pound-for-pound king, seeks to extend his legacy by conquering a second division, relying on his dominant grappling and ever-improving striking. The outcome will undoubtedly have significant implications for both fighters’ careers and the landscape of the UFC’s welterweight and lightweight divisions.
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