Ali Akbar Rosady
For the first time since Jon Jones’ victory over Ciryl Gane in March 2023, the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s undisputed heavyweight title will be contested without an active interim championship in play. Tom Aspinall, the former interim titleholder, elevated to full champion, is scheduled to make his inaugural defense against Ciryl Gane in the main event of UFC 321 this Saturday in Abu Dhabi. This pivotal event marks the promotion’s 22nd visit to the capital city of the United Arab Emirates, presenting a fight card laden with significant implications across multiple divisions.
Aspinall Carries the Weight of Expectation
Tom Aspinall (14-3, 11 KOs, 3 Submissions), at 32 years old, enters his first undisputed title defense under considerable pressure. Despite an impressive professional record, including eight stoppage wins in nine walks to the Octagon, certain aspects of the Englishman’s game remain untested. Aspinall has not competed beyond the second round in any of his 18 professional fights, raising questions about his endurance over championship distance. Similarly, the extent of his ground game prowess and the resilience of his chin in protracted exchanges are largely unknown commodities.
Aspinall’s meteoric rise saw him claim the interim heavyweight title at UFC 295 in November 2023, dispatching Sergei Pavlovich in a mere 69 seconds. This followed a rapid recovery from a knee injury sustained just 15 seconds into his July 2022 bout against Curtis Blaydes, which marked his only legitimate loss in the UFC. His subsequent victories over Marcin Tybura and Pavlovich underscored his fast hands and immense power, often leading to quick finishes. However, observers have noted Aspinall’s tendency to keep his chin exposed while backpedaling, a vulnerability he has yet to be penalized for.
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The narrative surrounding Aspinall has also been shaped by Jon Jones, who frequently questioned Aspinall’s marketability and ability to sell tickets while justifying his own unwillingness to defend against the Briton. Jones’s comments, including suggestions that Aspinall could be a "flash-in-the-pan," have added an extra layer of scrutiny. With Aspinall installed as a significant betting favorite, currently around 4-to-1 against Gane, a loss could potentially lend credence to Jones’s dismissive remarks. Therefore, Aspinall’s performance against Gane is not merely a title defense but an opportunity to unequivocally demonstrate his legitimacy as the division’s future and to validate Jones’s prior reluctance to risk his near-perfect record against such a dynamic challenger.
Ciryl Gane’s Pursuit of Redemption
For 35-year-old Ciryl Gane (12-2, 6 KOs, 3 Submissions), this championship bout against Aspinall may represent his final opportunity to secure the undisputed heavyweight crown. The 6-foot-5 kickboxer, who transitioned from Muay Thai to mixed martial arts in 2018, initially appeared to be the prototype for the modern heavyweight upon his UFC debut in 2019. Gane’s ascent culminated in an interim heavyweight title win over Derrick Lewis at UFC 265 in August 2021, extending his professional record to an unblemished 10-0.
However, the subsequent years have seen Gane’s progress seemingly stagnate. His ground game, a perceived weakness, was exposed in two disappointing title losses. The first occurred against Francis Ngannou at UFC 270 in January 2022, a fight where Ngannou competed with a compromised knee but managed to control Gane on the mat for significant periods. The second, and more decisive, was against Jon Jones at UFC 285 in March 2023, where Gane was submitted just 2 minutes and 4 seconds into the first round.
Between these title challenges, Gane also experienced moments of vulnerability in victories. During his August 2022 knockout win over Tai Tuivasa at UFC Fight Night Paris, Gane was visibly hurt multiple times before securing the finish. His most recent outing, a December rematch against Alexander Volkov at UFC 286, resulted in a highly disputed split decision victory, a verdict openly challenged by UFC CEO Dana White. While Gane briefly showcased a revitalized form in his September 2023 TKO win over Serghei Spivac at UFC Fight Night Paris, the consistent concerns surrounding his grappling defense persist. To overcome Aspinall, Gane will likely need to leverage his superior striking, maintain distance, and demonstrate a significant improvement in his defensive wrestling and jiu-jitsu if the fight transitions to the mat, proving he has addressed the glaring weaknesses that hindered his previous championship bids.
Strawweight Gold Up for Grabs: Jandiroba vs. Dern II
The co-main event features a compelling rematch for the vacant women’s strawweight title between Virna Jandiroba (20-3, 1 KO, 14 Submissions) and Mackenzie Dern (13-4, 7 Submissions). This championship opportunity arose following the departure of two-time champion Zhang Weili, who vacated her 115-pound title to pursue a historic superfight against flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 322 in November. Zhang’s decision has created a significant opening in a division currently seeking a new dominant figure.
Virna Jandiroba, 37, a former Invicta FC champion, has found a remarkable late-career resurgence in the Octagon. After an initial UFC run that saw her lose three of her first six fights following her 2019 debut (including defeats to Carla Esparza, Mackenzie Dern, and Amanda Ribas), Jandiroba is now riding an impressive five-fight win streak. This streak includes victories over top contenders such as Yan Xiaonan, Marina Rodriguez, Angela Hill, Loopy Godinez, and Amanda Lemos. Known for her technical grappling and composed demeanor, the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt has consistently improved her striking and overall game, positioning herself as a formidable force in the division.
Mackenzie Dern, 32, a decorated Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, was once touted as a future star with significant marketing potential following her 2018 UFC debut. Dern secured a decision victory over Jandiroba in their initial encounter at UFC 256 in December 2020. However, her path to the title has been less consistent. While currently on a two-fight win streak, Dern holds a 3-4 record in her last seven outings, with losses to fighters like Marina Rodriguez, Yan Xiaonan, and Angela Hill. Her journey has been marked by a history of inconsistent striking technique and occasional questionable game planning. For Dern, who has demonstrated flashes of brilliance, this rematch represents a critical juncture to fulfill her considerable potential and overcome a former foe who has demonstrably evolved since their last meeting.
Umar Nurmagomedov’s Bantamweight Ambition
In the bantamweight division, Umar Nurmagomedov (17-1, 1 KO, 7 Submissions) faces Mario Bautista (14-2, 3 KOs, 7 Submissions) in a bout with significant title implications. The question looms whether Nurmagomedov, cousin to UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov, is the only bantamweight capable of dethroning the division’s dominant champion, Merab Dvalishvili.
Nurmagomedov’s sole professional loss came against Dvalishvili in January at UFC 309, a unanimous decision defeat that halted his previously unbeaten record. Nurmagomedov subsequently revealed he had broken his right hand in the first round of that contest, asserting that he still believed he did enough to win despite scorecards of 48-47 (twice) and 49-46 in Dvalishvili’s favor. Nurmagomedov possesses a perfectly well-rounded skill set, combining formidable striking with high-level wrestling and grappling, skills that theoretically could trouble "The Machine." His main challenge against Dvalishvili appeared to be matching the Georgian champion’s relentless pace and seemingly boundless gas tank.
Mario Bautista, on the other hand, enters the contest on an impressive eight-fight win streak, with notable victories over Cody Garbrandt, Ricky Simon, and Da’Mon Blackshear. Bautista’s recent form and finishing capabilities have established him as a legitimate threat in the 135-pound division. With Dvalishvili having effectively cleared out many of the division’s top contenders, the winner of this bout is widely expected to secure the next shot at the bantamweight title. Nurmagomedov, installed as a significant betting favorite, will look to prove that his previous encounter with Dvalishvili was an anomaly and that his perfectly calibrated game is ready for another championship run.
Volkov’s High-Stakes Heavyweight Challenge
Heavyweight contender Alexander Volkov (37-11, 24 KOs, 4 Submissions) faces Jailton Almeida (20-3, 8 KOs, 12 Submissions) in a matchup Dana White described as a "gift" following Volkov’s contentious split-decision loss to Ciryl Gane in December. That defeat snapped Volkov’s five-fight win streak, which included victories over Alexandr Romanov, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and Tai Tuivasa. The result against Gane was widely disputed, with many observers, including White, believing Volkov had done enough to secure the win. This mirrored a previous disappointment for Volkov, who was knocked out by Derrick Lewis in the closing seconds of a 2018 fight he was largely winning, costing him a potential title shot.
Jailton Almeida, 32, a powerful Brazilian ground specialist, presents a significant challenge. Almeida boasts an impressive 8-1 record in the UFC, with seven of those victories coming by finish, including four submissions. His dominant performances against opponents like Curtis Blaydes, Derrick Lewis, and Shamil Abdurakhimov have quickly established him as a top contender. Almeida enters this bout as a slight betting favorite, largely due to Volkov’s documented inconsistencies in takedown defense throughout his career.
For Volkov, 36, who has previously held the Bellator MMA heavyweight title, a UFC championship remains elusive. A victory over Almeida would be crucial for his aspirations, potentially placing him in line for a long-awaited UFC title shot. However, the heavyweight division’s landscape is complex, with the potential return of Jon Jones and the looming presence of light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira, who has expressed interest in moving up. Volkov’s "gift" from Dana White is anything but an easy fight; it is a high-stakes encounter that will test his ability to thwart Almeida’s grappling and keep the fight standing, where his striking prowess is most effective.
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