Data Analysis Suggests Aprilia's Challenge to Ducati's MotoGP Supremacy Remains Distant

The narrative of a surging Aprilia threatening Ducati’s dominance in MotoGP has gained traction, fueled by visible improvements and key race victories. However, a closer examination of the statistical data from the recent seasons suggests that while Aprilia has undoubtedly made strides, the idea of an imminent takeover at the top of the championship standings is premature.

The perception of a decline in Ducati’s performance often circulates within the MotoGP paddock. Yet, the numbers paint a different picture, indicating that Ducati’s "stagnation" is more of a mirage than a reality. To fully understand this dynamic, it’s essential to dissect the performance metrics from the past two seasons and account for the factors influencing those figures.

In the 2024 season, Ducati achieved unprecedented success, setting a high benchmark against which all subsequent performances are measured. Out of 20 possible race wins, Ducati secured 19, translating to a 95% win rate. Their presence on the podium was equally dominant, with 53 podium finishes out of 60 opportunities, an impressive 88.3% success rate. The sheer consistency of Ducati’s performance was further underscored by their clean sweep of the rostrum in 14 Grand Prix events. In terms of points accumulation, Ducati amassed 722 points out of a maximum possible 740, achieving an astonishing 98% strike rate. This record-breaking campaign set an exceptionally high standard.

The 2025 season saw some regression from these peak figures, but the drop-off was not as substantial as some observers suggest. Ducati riders secured 17 wins out of 22 races, which amounts to a 77.3% win rate. These victories were distributed among four different riders, highlighting the depth of talent within the Ducati camp. Additionally, Ducati riders claimed 44 podiums out of 66 races, a 66.6% podium rate. There were seven Grand Prix events where Ducati riders occupied all three podium positions, further showcasing their competitive strength. In total, Ducati collected 768 points out of a possible 814, representing 94% of the maximum points available during the season.

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While the 2025 figures did not match the opulence of the 2024 season, they still represent the second-best performance in Ducati’s history. The slight regression can be attributed to several significant factors that had an undeniable impact on the overall outcome.

One of the primary factors was the reduction in the number of Ducati bikes on the grid. The manufacturer went from fielding eight bikes in 2024 to six in 2025. This reduction in the number of competitive machines naturally affected Ducati’s overall ability to accumulate wins, podiums, and points.

Another critical factor was the injury sustained by Marc Marquez, one of Ducati’s leading riders. Marquez suffered a serious injury at the start of the Indonesian Grand Prix, which significantly hampered his performance and forced him to miss the final four rounds of the season. The damage to his already compromised right arm sidelined him during a crucial period of the championship. It’s worth noting that three of Aprilia’s four wins in 2025 (Australia, Portugal, and Valencia) occurred during Marquez’s absence, suggesting that his presence might have altered the outcome of those races.

Prior to the Australian Grand Prix, the first race Marquez missed, Ducati had won 16 of the 18 events held, demonstrating their dominance for the majority of the season. The exceptions were Silverstone, where Marco Bezzecchi emerged victorious after Fabio Quartararo’s Yamaha engine failed, and Le Mans, where Johann Zarco capitalized on rainy conditions to secure an unlikely win for Honda.

The departure of Pramac Racing as Ducati’s satellite team also played a significant role. Pramac’s switch to becoming Yamaha’s satellite team meant that Ducati lost two Desmosedici bikes from the grid, a 25% reduction in their overall firepower. This was not just any reduction; it involved the reigning world championship team from 2024, which had contributed three wins and 16 podiums through Jorge Martin, the reigning world champion. The absence of Pramac Racing undoubtedly affected Ducati’s ability to maintain its high level of performance.

In contrast, Aprilia made notable improvements during the 2025 season. The team increased its win tally from one in 2024 (Maverick Vinales in Austin) to four in 2025, with three wins from Bezzecchi and one from Raul Fernandez (Australia). In 2024, Vinales’ victory in Texas was the team’s only podium finish, while in 2025, Aprilia celebrated 11 podiums. Aprilia’s total points increased from 302 in 2024 (41% of the total available) to 418 in 2025 (51.4%), representing a 10 percentage point increase.

Aprilia recorded the second-largest improvement among manufacturers, surpassed only by Honda. While this progress is commendable, the notion that it automatically positions Aprilia as a genuine threat to Ducati is not universally shared, even within the Aprilia camp.

Marco Bezzecchi, one of Aprilia’s leading riders, expressed caution about the team’s prospects. "We would like to be rivals of Ducati, but every year is a new story and nothing can be taken for granted," Bezzecchi said in Valencia, before securing his third win that same Sunday. "We must keep this mentality of focusing on our work. Ducati will start as the favorite. Marc won the title with five races to spare, so two victories are not enough for me to consider myself at his level."

Bezzecchi’s remarks highlight the need for a realistic assessment of Aprilia’s current standing. While the team has made significant progress, it still faces a considerable challenge in overcoming Ducati’s established dominance.

The data suggests that while Aprilia is making advances, they are not yet at a level to consistently challenge Ducati for the championship. Ducati’s slight regression in 2025 was influenced by factors such as a reduction in the number of bikes on the grid and the injury to Marc Marquez, rather than a fundamental decline in their performance. Aprilia’s improvements are noteworthy, but they are not yet sufficient to dethrone Ducati from its position at the top of MotoGP.