UFC 329 odds, lines, predictions, time: Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway picks by elite MMA expert

Scheduled for Saturday, July 11, 2026, the main event and the entire five-bout main card will commence at approximately 9 p.m. ET from the iconic T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Fans across the United States can stream the event live on Paramount+. The card promises a night of intense action, with the main event being a pivotal moment for two of the UFC’s most recognizable figures.

Conor McGregor, the 37-year-old Irish superstar, enters this bout seeking a significant victory after a challenging period in his career. A former UFC featherweight and lightweight champion, McGregor made history as the first fighter to simultaneously hold titles in two different weight classes. His career record stands at 22 wins and 6 losses, with an impressive 19 victories coming by knockout, one by submission, and two by decision. McGregor’s impact on mixed martial arts transcends the octagon, having propelled the sport to unprecedented global recognition and financial success. However, his recent professional outings have seen a downturn, with the "Notorious" one losing three of his last four fights. His most recent defeat was a TKO loss to Dustin Poirier at UFC 264 on July 10, 2021, which also resulted in a significant leg injury that has kept him sidelined. Despite these setbacks, McGregor remains a formidable striker, celebrated for his precision, timing, and devastating left hand. His resume includes numerous accolades, such as two Fight of the Night awards, one Knockout of the Night, and a record-setting seven Performance of the Night bonuses, including five consecutive, underscoring his capacity for highlight-reel finishes. He also shares a unique distinction with Jared Cannonier, being one of only two fighters to secure knockout victories across three different weight divisions.

Facing McGregor is Max Holloway, the 34-year-old Hawaiian phenom, widely regarded as one of the greatest featherweight fighters of all time. Holloway, a former UFC featherweight champion and symbolic "BMF" titleholder, boasts a professional record of 27 wins and 9 losses. His victories include 12 knockouts, two submissions, and 13 decisions, showcasing his well-rounded skill set. Currently ranked No. 4 in the Meta UFC lightweight rankings, Holloway’s career has been defined by his relentless pace, unparalleled volume striking, and remarkable durability. He holds several significant UFC striking records, including the most significant strikes landed in UFC history with 3,681, and the most strikes landed in title fights with 1,414. Like McGregor, Holloway has also collected numerous post-fight bonuses, earning one Knockout of the Night, seven Fight of the Night honors, and five Performance of the Night awards. However, Holloway also arrives in Las Vegas with a point to prove, having lost two of his last three fights, including a unanimous decision defeat to Charles Oliveira at UFC 326 this past March. This bout marks a significant move up to welterweight for Holloway, a considerable jump from his natural featherweight division, posing a unique challenge for the Hawaiian.

The rematch carries substantial weight for both fighters. Their first encounter in August 2013 saw a young McGregor secure a unanimous decision victory over an equally nascent Holloway. Both have evolved dramatically since then, becoming champions and legends in their own right. This welterweight contest will test McGregor’s renowned power against Holloway’s legendary chin and cardio, with the added variable of a higher weight class impacting both their typical strategies and endurance.

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The betting markets reflect the current form and perceived advantages heading into UFC 329. At DraftKings Sportsbook, Max Holloway is positioned as the favorite in the main event, currently listed at -298 (requiring a $298 wager to win $100). Conor McGregor, in contrast, enters the octagon as the underdog at +240. Other notable betting lines include an over/under of 2.5 total rounds for the fight, indicating expectations for a contest that could end early or extend into the championship rounds. The odds for the fight to go the distance are set at +350, suggesting that oddsmakers anticipate a finish before the final bell.

For those looking to navigate the complex betting landscape of UFC 329, SportsLine expert Kyle Marley has provided detailed predictions and betting advice. Marley has established himself as a highly successful MMA analyst, with a track record that speaks volumes. Over the past three-plus years, $100 bettors who have followed his selections are up nearly $10,000, and since May 2018, his picks have generated returns well over $21,000. His expertise was particularly evident in 2020 when he accurately predicted five consecutive main-event underdog winners following the UFC’s return to action after a brief hiatus. Marley’s consistent success has made him a trusted source for UFC betting insights.

Among his disclosed picks for UFC 329, Marley is backing Tracy Cortez (+102) to secure a unanimous decision victory against Cong Wang (-122) in a women’s flyweight preliminary bout. Providing his rationale, Marley stated, "Wang is the better striker here, and she has knockout power. Cortez isn’t a bad striker, but she needs to wrestle heavily in this fight. I could see either side looking like a big favorite; it just depends on who dictates where the fight takes place. I’ll side with Cortez to win the fight on the ground." Marley has also indicated strong picks for the McGregor vs. Holloway main event and other significant matchups on the card, including an underdog who he believes "brings a higher striking and grappling pace to the fight" and is poised for a major upset.

Beyond the headliner, the UFC 329 main card features several compelling matchups that could have significant implications for their respective divisions:

  • Benoit Saint-Denis (-148) vs. Paddy Pimblett (+124): A highly anticipated lightweight showdown featuring two exciting and aggressive fighters. Saint-Denis’s relentless pressure will clash with Pimblett’s unpredictable style and fan appeal.
  • Cory Sandhagen (-142) vs. Mario Bautista (+120): A crucial bantamweight contest where Sandhagen, known for his elite striking and unorthodox movement, looks to maintain his position against the surging Bautista.
  • Brandon Royval (+180) vs. Lone’er Kavanagh (-218): A flyweight clash featuring two dynamic strikers, with Kavanagh entering as a significant favorite.
  • King Green (-112) vs. Terrance McKinney (-108): A tightly contested lightweight bout with nearly even odds, promising an explosive exchange between two aggressive finishers.

As UFC 329 approaches, all eyes will be on the T-Mobile Arena for what promises to be an unforgettable night of mixed martial arts. Fans and bettors alike are encouraged to consult expert analysis from seasoned professionals like Kyle Marley for comprehensive insights into all the matchups.

UFC 329 Main Card Odds
(Odds from DraftKings and subject to change)

  • Conor McGregor (+240) vs. Max Holloway (-298)
  • Benoit Saint-Denis (-148) vs. Paddy Pimblett (+124)
  • Cory Sandhagen (-142) vs. Mario Bautista (+120)
  • Brandon Royval (+180) vs. Lone’er Kavanagh (-218)
  • King Green (-112) vs. Terrance McKinney (-108)

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