The Chase is on for NASCAR's new look playoff format

The initial "Chase Grid," a snapshot of the playoff contenders and their starting positions relative to the leader, Denny Hamlin, highlights the early favorites. Hamlin, leading the pack, is followed by Ryan Blaney (-25 points), Tyler Reddick (-35), Ty Gibbs (-40), Chase Briscoe (-45), Christopher Bell (-50), Kyle Larson (-55), Chase Elliott (-60), Joey Logano (-65), Chris Buescher (-70), Daniel Suarez (-75), Carson Hocevar (-80), William Byron (-85), Bubba Wallace (-90), Austin Cindric (-95), and Ryan Preece (-100). This seeding reflects the points accumulated during the regular season, setting the stage for a dramatic ten-week showdown.

The playoff schedule is designed to test drivers across a diverse range of track types and complexities, beginning with the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway on September 6th. This historic track, known for its demanding layout, will kick off the first round, which also includes the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway (September 13th) and the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway (September 19th). Subsequent rounds will feature races at Kansas Speedway (September 27th), Las Vegas Motor Speedway (October 4th), Charlotte Motor Speedway (October 11th), Phoenix Raceway (October 18th), Talladega Superspeedway (October 25th), and Martinsville Speedway (November 1st). The ultimate champion will be crowned at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 8th, following the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville.

The Favorites Emerge from Data and Performance

Denny Hamlin, with an impressive four wins and a series-leading average finish of 8.2, stands as the statistical favorite to claim his maiden championship. When questioned about potential challenges from his fellow Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing stablemates, Hamlin acknowledged the numerical advantage but cautioned against overlooking drivers who consistently elevate their performance in playoff scenarios. "If you would use numbers, you would say yes," Hamlin commented. "But there are drivers that I believe step up in these scenarios in the playoffs, in the Chase. So, I don’t believe that the advantage is quite as steep as maybe as what it was."

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This sentiment directly addresses the formidable challenge posed by second-seeded Ryan Blaney. Despite a season where Ford and Team Penske have not consistently demonstrated the outright speed seen in previous years, Blaney’s team, led by crew chief Jonathan Hassler, has shown competitive pace, particularly on intermediate tracks, according to Racing Insights. Blaney himself identified the mile-and-a-half ovals as crucial battlegrounds for the championship. "The mile-and-a-halves are a place to where we know we have to continue to improve, and I feel like we’ve made steps from Chicago," Blaney stated. "Indianapolis isn’t a mile-and-a-half, but it’s a bigger track and (Joey Logano) had a heck of a run there, so that really shows me that we’ve made a step in the right direction." He expressed curiosity about the team’s performance at upcoming intermediate tracks like Charlotte, Las Vegas, and Kansas, emphasizing the need for continuous improvement. "It’s just a matter of who can put the best 10 together and someone is going to do that. Hopefully that’s us."

When asked if the playoff battle would be a direct confrontation between Blaney and the Toyota contingent, he demurred, highlighting the depth of the field. "I wouldn’t say that," Blaney replied. "I think there’s a lot of other guys that can go out there and do it. All 16 teams in this thing, I think, are very, very good and can really go on runs, but the Toyotas are incredibly fast. We’ve seen that all year. I think the Fords, for myself and (Joey Logano) and (Austin Cindric), and (Ryan Preece) and (Chris Buescher), I feel like we’ve had a really good last two or three months and closed the gap there." He reiterated the importance of the upcoming intermediate track races as a benchmark against Toyota and acknowledged the threat posed by Chevrolet drivers Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott. "So, I don’t think it’s us versus the Toyotas. It’s us versus 15 other people. That’s how I look at it."

Christopher Bell, seeded sixth, expressed unwavering confidence in the Toyota brand’s championship prospects. "Yes. I believe that the champion will be a Toyota," he declared. However, Bell, who has yet to secure a victory this season, acknowledged a critical caveat. His most recent win was nearly a year ago at Bristol. "Can we win a championship? Yes," Bell stated. "Without winning, right? Can we win a championship without winning a race? No. That’s my answer. I don’t believe so." This sentiment underscores the pressure on Bell and other winless Toyotas to secure victories in the playoffs, a requirement under the current format.

Beyond Hamlin, the other Toyota contenders face distinct challenges. Bell, despite his playoff pedigree, needs a win. Ty Gibbs, a multiple race winner, is the youngest contender. Chase Briscoe, after a strong resurgence following a slower start to the season, expressed confidence in his team’s potential. "Last year, we were not a strong and dominant team until the playoffs started, and what it did, we were arguably one of the best teams," Briscoe recalled. "Now I know we are more than capable of winning the championship. Like just internally, I would say myself, James (Small, crew chief), the entire team, we feel way better about this year than we did last year just because we kind of know what to expect and we also know what the expectation is now for ourselves just because we kind of do it week in, week out."

Tyler Reddick, who experienced a dominant stretch earlier in the season with five wins in nine races, has faced inconsistency in the latter part of the regular season, including five finishes outside the top 25 in the last ten. Reddick attributed this not solely to bad luck, but to lessons learned. "It is more than bad luck," he stated. "There are things that have happened that we have learned from, and most importantly how we respond and handle those moments and make the most out of them isn’t something that we need to forget or move on from." He added, "Yeah, ideally, it’s good to have good points days, but as much as you want to think that you will have 10 races go exactly as planned, no mistakes, no issues – things are going to happen that you are not ready for and you are going to have to fight through adversity at points. We’ve been through enough of it and ready if we have more of it."

The Mid-Pack’s Hopes and the Power of Momentum

Despite the statistical leanings toward the top seeds, Tyler Reddick articulated how any driver could theoretically make a championship run. "Points can be lost and gained in huge chunks if you perform at a very high level or perform at a very extremely bad level or have really bad days," Reddick explained. "Again, it will be really interesting to see how it plays out. With the previous format, if you get 70 points up, you are feeling super good and feeling like you are in a great spot, but you can lose 77 of them in a race, so it’s all very interesting to keep that in mind."

Joey Logano, seeded ninth after a mid-season surge from 20th, represents a significant threat. His history of performing exceptionally well in the playoffs, having won three championships under the previous format, fuels his confidence. "That’s a reputation that we’ve earned over the years, that unfortunately, during the regular season we seem to just be okay, and then it gets to game time and the 22 starts to show up," Logano remarked. "So I feel confident in our team that we can do it. People think that way because we have done it and we’ve done it multiple times, so I feel like we can show up again when it matters and do it in a different format."

Hendrick Motorsports drivers Kyle Larson and William Byron, both championship contenders in previous seasons, enter this year’s playoffs without a win. Larson, while not as outwardly confident as in prior years, referenced his 2023 championship run. "I’m not as confident as I’ve been, for sure, in other years," Larson admitted. "But I wasn’t, honestly, sitting here that confident last year, and we were able to win the championship. I know there’s a path to do it. We did it last year without winning a race in the final 10 races, and we weren’t even really all that consistent, from what I remember. I think if we can be ultra-consistent in these final 10 races, there’s no doubt that I could see ourselves winning the championship." He also noted the team’s strong performance on several upcoming tracks.

William Byron, on the other hand, believes past performance holds little weight. "I think it’s anyone’s game," Byron stated. "I mean, look at how the points have swung over the year between first and second. So, I think it’s really going to be who performs the best for 10 races. I would really love to be the first seed, but I think it’s going to come down to who races well the next 10 weeks." This perspective aligns with the simulation findings, where the driver accumulating the most points over the final ten races won 70% of the simulated championships, irrespective of their starting seed.

Chase Elliott, who began the season with two wins but has experienced a significant slump, is seeded eighth. Reflecting on his season, Elliott noted the inherent volatility of NASCAR. "You’re never as far off as you probably think you are or can think you are at different moments," Elliott said. "I think our performance early in the year is really a good reminder of that, right? Like, you know, we had a great start, I thought, to the season. We had a lot of performance in the opening month, month-and-a-half. You know, we were super pumped about that and just excited that we were getting the season started off that way. We kind of had a summer stretch that we didn’t want to have to see. But we did, and we’ve seen both sides of the coin."

The Underdogs’ Ambitions

Ryan Preece, who secured the final playoff spot with a dramatic win at Daytona, enters the postseason as the 16th seed, 100 points behind Hamlin. Undeterred, Preece stated, "At the end of the day, we’ve won two races this year – one points paying and one non-points paying – but why not? There’s only one place for us to go and that’s forward." He echoed Byron’s sentiment that starting position is not a definitive predictor of success. "I don’t believe that," Preece asserted. "Not at all. I think those guys are going to race the hell out of each other and if they have a couple of bad races, there’s no win and you’re in to get to the next round. It’s going to be tough to make up those points, so if you’re a team that puts 10 great weeks together and wins races and gets stage points, the fact that you’re in the top 16, I hate to tell you just because you’re 16th in points doesn’t mean you didn’t execute a great season."

Carson Hocevar, the 12th seed, who secured a win earlier this season and reached as high as fifth in the standings, draws inspiration from Ryan Newman’s 2014 playoff run, where he reached the championship race without a win. Hocevar’s team motto, "we’re playing with house money," reflects a low-pressure, high-reward approach. "Our team moral or motto is we’re playing with house money," Hocevar said. "Luke (Lambert) and Matt McCall were on that (Newman) team in 2014, and that’s how they approached it, and they finished second. I’m not going to look at the points until the end. They’ll let me know when I walk up at the banquet where I finished."

Bubba Wallace, seeded 14th, also embraces the "anyone can win" mentality. "The same people that say that say you can’t get the numbers lost in translation," Wallace commented. "If you put together the best 10 weeks for us and you do that better than the rest – who knows if that propels us to a championship, because we are 90 points behind, but if you outperform the rest of the group, then who knows." He emphasized the impact of the points reset, which significantly alters the landscape compared to a pure points-based system. "I think anybody has a shot. Now if the points didn’t reset, I think we were 300 or so points out from Denny (and) we had no shot. But we are 90 out now, and if you win a race, it’s up to 75 points, and maybe they all have a bad race. We’ll see how it goes."

As the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs commence, the combination of rigorous statistical analysis, driver performance data, and the inherent unpredictability of motorsport promises a compelling championship battle. The new format, while statistically favoring top seeds, has also invigorated the hopes of those starting further back, setting the stage for a season where strategic execution and clutch performances will ultimately decide who reigns supreme.