Rivalry Week Poised to Unravel College Football Playoff and Conference Title Contests

The penultimate week of the college football regular season provided significant entertainment, marked by a dramatic comeback in Salt Lake City, several decisive blowouts, a notable Heisman surge from Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia, and a season-defining finish at the Division II level. Despite these captivating moments, Week 13 saw minimal shifts in the College Football Playoff (CFP) landscape. No team within the top 14 of the CFP rankings suffered a loss, and among the 16 ranked teams that secured victories, 15 won by double-digit margins, with 10 achieving wins of 20 points or more. While the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) offered some unexpected outcomes, such as Georgia Tech’s subdued performance against Pitt, the overall weekend was largely devoid of major upsets.

Fortunately, Rivalry Week is now on the horizon, traditionally a catalyst for significant shifts and dramatic conclusions. With opportunities remaining to inject volatility into the 2025 season, a comprehensive review of Week 13 now pivots to a forward-looking analysis of Week 14’s pivotal matchups and their implications for college football’s most anticipated weekend.

At-Large Playoff Bids: The Unsettled Picture

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The consistent victories among top-ranked teams last weekend have left the playoff picture notably ambiguous. As a general guideline, a two-loss team from the Southeastern Conference (SEC) or Big Ten, or a one-loss team from the Big 12 or ACC, is typically considered a strong contender for a playoff berth. However, with only two weeks remaining, the number of such teams currently exceeds the available playoff slots. Six SEC teams and four Big Ten teams possess two or fewer losses, complemented by two Big 12 teams with a single loss, indicating that several deserving programs may ultimately find themselves on the outside looking in.

Rivalry Week presents a crucial opportunity to redefine this landscape. However, the prospect of significant upheaval remains uncertain, as each of the current top 13 teams in the CFP rankings are favored to win their respective matchups, with 10 of them projected to win by double digits according to SP+ projections.

Friday’s Key Playoff Contests:

No. 6 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (noon ET, ABC): SP+ projects Ole Miss as a 13.9-point favorite with an 82% win probability. While Georgia, Indiana, and Texas A&M appear to have strong playoff assurances, a loss for Ole Miss could complicate their standing, particularly amidst speculative narratives regarding head coach Lane Kiffin’s future. The Rebels, with a 10-1 record, would prefer to avoid such uncertainties.
No. 12 Utah at Kansas (noon ET, ESPN): Utah is favored by 15.1 points with an 83% win probability. The Utes narrowly preserved their playoff aspirations last Saturday in a remarkable contest against Kansas State. Trailing 31-21 at halftime after surrendering points on five consecutive possessions, Utah mounted a 14-0 run. However, Kansas State, led by Joe Jackson’s unstoppable run game, responded with a 16-0 burst. Jackson’s 24-yard score seemed to seal the game, but Tao Johnson’s 100-yard return of a two-point pass made it 47-37. The Utes then saw Devon Dampier connect with Larry Simmons for a 20-yard touchdown with 2:47 left. Following a Kansas State three-and-out, Dampier orchestrated a 59-yard run on fourth-and-1, setting up his own go-ahead touchdown with 56 seconds remaining. Lander Barton secured the comeback with a game-ending interception, marking a 51-47 victory.
No. 4 Georgia at No. 16 Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Georgia is projected to win by 12.9 points with a 79% win probability.
No. 2 Indiana at Purdue (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC): Indiana holds a substantial 33.9-point advantage with a 98% win probability.
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 17 Texas (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Texas A&M is a 5.3-point favorite with a 63% win probability in this rivalry clash.

Saturday’s Pivotal Playoff Encounters:

No. 1 Ohio State at No. 18 Michigan (noon ET, Fox): Ohio State is favored by 14.6 points with an 82% win probability.
No. 13 Miami at Pitt (noon ET, ABC): Miami is projected to win by 6.0 points with a 65% win probability.
No. 5 Texas Tech at West Virginia (noon ET, ESPN): Texas Tech holds a significant 31.5-point advantage with a 98% win probability.
UCF at No. 11 BYU (1 p.m. ET, ESPN2): BYU is favored by 19.1 points with an 88% win probability.
No. 7 Oregon at Washington (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS): Oregon is projected to win by 6.7 points with a 66% win probability.
LSU at No. 8 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Oklahoma is favored by 11.7 points with a 77% win probability.
No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Tennessee (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Tennessee is a narrow 0.7-point favorite with a 52% win probability, indicating a highly competitive matchup.
No. 10 Alabama at Auburn (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Alabama is projected to win by 6.0 points with a 65% win probability.
No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Notre Dame holds a commanding 31.7-point advantage with a 98% win probability.

In previous seasons, both Texas and Michigan might have found themselves in "win and you’re in" scenarios for the playoff. However, with Georgia Tech and USC recently suffering losses, the Longhorns and Wolverines are projected to rank around 15th and 16th, respectively, in the upcoming CFP rankings. While this places them within range, a crowded field – particularly if Vanderbilt upsets Tennessee and if BYU and Notre Dame secure dominant victories as anticipated – could limit their path to the playoff. The desire for playoff chaos can manifest in two ways: either through numerous upsets and general unpredictability, which could paradoxically clarify the picture, or through a series of results that create a significant selection headache for the committee, such as upset victories by Michigan and Texas, a Vanderbilt win over Tennessee, and a potential Ole Miss loss, while other favorites prevail.

Group of 5 Playoff Bid: A Two-Team Battle Emerges

The competition for the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP slot appears largely confined to two primary contenders: James Madison and the champion of the American Athletic Conference. The American Conference championship is highly likely to feature a Tulane-North Texas matchup in two weeks. While the exact ranking implications remain to be seen, as the committee has only marginally ranked Tulane thus far, these three teams collectively hold a greater than 95% chance of securing the playoff spot.

Temple at North Texas (Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): North Texas is favored by 24.0 points with a 93% win probability.
James Madison at Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 3:45 p.m. ET, ESPNU): James Madison is favored by 21.6 points with a 91% win probability.
Charlotte at No. 24 Tulane (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU): Tulane holds a substantial 33.8-point advantage with a 98% win probability.

Last Saturday, North Texas posted exceptional offensive numbers against Rice, and Tulane secured a late victory over Temple. James Madison, however, faced a formidable challenge from Washington State, a team that nearly upset Ole Miss and Virginia in recent weeks. The Cougars led JMU until Wayne Knight’s 58-yard rush with 6:24 remaining propelled the Dukes to a 24-20 victory. This performance may finally prompt the committee to include James Madison in its rankings this week.

Conference Title Races: Intra-Conference Drama Peaks

SEC

Four teams—Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss—remain in contention for the SEC title.

Texas A&M (6-1 SEC): Secures a spot in the SEC championship game with a victory over Texas. A loss could eliminate them unless both Alabama and Ole Miss also lose.
Alabama (6-1 SEC): Most likely to advance with a win over Auburn, leveraging a head-to-head victory against Georgia and a potential advantage in the "conference opponent winning percentage" tiebreaker.
Georgia (7-1 SEC): Currently leads with a 7-1 SEC record and holds tiebreakers over Ole Miss (head-to-head win) and, if Texas A&M loses, over the Aggies (record against common opponents). However, if both Texas A&M and Alabama win as favorites (a 41% chance according to SP+), Georgia would be eliminated from title contention, though their playoff hopes would remain strong.
Ole Miss (6-1 SEC): Likely requires a win coupled with losses from both Alabama and Texas A&M to secure a championship game berth, given the complexities of multi-way tiebreakers.

Big Ten

The Big Ten championship picture is nearing clarity. Indiana (7-0 Big Ten) needs only to defeat Purdue to clinch its inaugural trip to Indianapolis for the football championship game, with a 98% win probability. However, an upset by Michigan over Ohio State (7-0 Big Ten) would likely pave the way for Oregon (6-1 Big Ten) to advance if the Ducks defeat Washington. Should both Ohio State and Oregon suffer upsets, Michigan (5-2 Big Ten) would then claim the Big Ten title game berth. SP+ projects an 80% chance of both Indiana and Ohio State winning. Michigan (6-2 Big Ten) secured a 45-20 victory over Maryland last Saturday, while Oregon (6-1 Big Ten) defeated No. 15 USC 35-27 in a penalty-laden contest, maintaining control despite USC’s fourth-quarter rally.

Big 12

Arizona at No. 25 Arizona State (Friday, 9 p.m. ET, Fox): Arizona is favored by 4.0 points with a 60% win probability.

The Big 12 championship game is anticipated to be a rematch between BYU (6-1 Big 12) and Texas Tech (6-1 Big 12). SP+ assigns an 86% probability that both teams will win their upcoming games, thereby clinching their spots. However, upsets in the Territorial Cup (Arizona State over Arizona) and Utah-Kansas could open pathways for Arizona State (5-2 Big 12) or Utah (5-2 Big 12) to reach the championship game, especially if either BYU or Texas Tech also lose. Utah’s path is particularly narrow, requiring a win, victories by BYU and Arizona State, and a significant upset loss for Texas Tech. The probability of either Tech or BYU winning the conference crown is 98.8%, leaving a small but discernible chance for chaos.

ACC

Beyond the Miami-Pitt contest, three additional games are crucial for resolving the complex ACC championship race:

Wake Forest at Duke (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ACCN): Duke is a narrow 0.4-point favorite with a 51% win probability.
Virginia Tech at No. 19 Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN): Virginia is favored by 22.2 points with a 92% win probability.
SMU at California (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2): SMU is favored by 16.5 points with an 85% win probability.

Pitt’s 42-35 victory over Georgia Tech last week, in which freshman Ja’Kyrian Turner rushed for 201 yards, effectively eliminated the Yellow Jackets (6-2 ACC) from ACC contention. The ACC currently features three 6-1 teams (Virginia, Pitt, and SMU), two of whom were unranked prior to last weekend, along with 5-2 Miami and Duke. If all three 6-1 teams secure victories, Virginia and SMU would play for the ACC title due to Pitt’s inferior record against common opponents. If only two of the three win, the path to the championship game becomes clearer. However, the conference’s history of unpredictability means that tiebreakers such as "conference opponent win percentage" and "higher SportSource Analytics team rating" could come into play, potentially extending the resolution of the championship picture into Sunday.

American Athletic Conference

Navy at Memphis (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Memphis is favored by 11.5 points with a 76% win probability.
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic (Saturday, noon ET, ESPN+): East Carolina is favored by 11.1 points with a 76% win probability.
Rice at South Florida (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+): South Florida is favored by 27.3 points with a 96% win probability.

SP+ indicates a 91% chance that Tulane (6-1 American) and North Texas (6-1 American) will both win their Saturday games and subsequently meet in the American title game. However, Navy (6-1 American) could capitalize on any unexpected upsets. Should Navy also fall as an underdog to Memphis, the door might open for USF (5-2 American) or East Carolina (5-2 American), with blended computer rankings potentially determining tiebreakers.

Sun Belt Conference

Troy at Southern Miss (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Southern Miss is a narrow 2.5-point favorite with a 56% win probability.

James Madison (7-0 Sun Belt) has clinched the Sun Belt East Division title. The winner of the Troy (5-2 Sun Belt) vs. Southern Miss (5-2 Sun Belt) game will represent the West Division in the championship, likely as a significant underdog against the Dukes.

Mountain West Conference

San Diego State at New Mexico (Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN): San Diego State is favored by 4.7 points with a 62% win probability.
Boise State at Utah State (Friday, 4 p.m. ET, CBS): Boise State is favored by 3.5 points with a 59% win probability.
UNLV at Nevada (Saturday, 9 p.m. ET, CBSSN): UNLV is favored by 15.8 points with an 84% win probability.

The Mountain West features San Diego State (6-1 MW) at the top, with Boise State (5-2 MW), UNLV (5-2 MW), and New Mexico (5-2 MW) in close pursuit. If San Diego State defeats New Mexico, Boise State holds the tiebreaker over UNLV and would secure a championship berth with a win. A Boise State loss would then put UNLV in with a victory. A New Mexico upset, however, could lead to a multi-way tie at 6-2, necessitating the use of blended computer rankings for tie-breaking.

Conference USA

Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Western Kentucky is favored by 3.7 points with a 59% win probability.
Kennesaw State at Liberty (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN): Kennesaw State is favored by 4.0 points with a 60% win probability.

A three-way tie exists at 6-1 among Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, and Western Kentucky. The winner of the Western Kentucky-Jacksonville State game is guaranteed a spot in the title game. If Kennesaw State also wins, the Owls will face the WKU-JSU winner for the championship. A Kennesaw State loss, however, could invoke Jacksonville State’s head-to-head win over Kennesaw (if JSU loses to WKU) or trigger blended computer rankings if WKU loses to JSU.

Mid-American Conference (MAC)

Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan (Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): Western Michigan is favored by 8.6 points with a 70% win probability.
Ohio at Buffalo (Friday, noon ET, ESPNU): Ohio is favored by 2.9 points with a 57% win probability.
Toledo at Central Michigan (Saturday, noon ET, ESPN+): Toledo is favored by 10.3 points with a 74% win probability.
Ball State at Miami (Ohio) (Saturday, noon ET, CBSSN): Miami is favored by 20.3 points with a 90% win probability.

By Wednesday morning, the MAC race will either be clearer or significantly more convoluted. Western Michigan (6-1 MAC) secures a championship spot with a Tuesday victory over Eastern Michigan. A four-way tie among Central Michigan, Miami, Ohio, and Toledo (all 5-2 MAC) complicates the other division title, with tiebreakers potentially favoring WMU and Miami, though Toledo’s head-to-head win over Miami could be pivotal.

Bowl Eligibility: A Fight for Postseason Play

Twenty-one teams currently hold a 5-6 record, and Army sits at 5-5, all requiring a victory this weekend to achieve bowl eligibility. Delaware, though 5-6, is technically ineligible for a bowl, but could receive a bid if there are insufficient eligible teams to fill all slots. SP+ projections suggest approximately 10 of these teams will secure the necessary win.

Several of these teams are involved in the playoff and conference title races mentioned above, including Auburn (vs. Alabama), Buffalo (vs. Ohio), Kansas (vs. Utah), Mississippi State (at Ole Miss), Rice (at USF), Temple (at North Texas), and UCF (at BYU).

"Winner Bowls" – Direct Qualification Matchups:

5-6 Georgia Southern at 5-6 Marshall (Saturday, 1:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Marshall is favored by 10.2 points with a 74% win probability.
5-6 Arkansas State at 5-6 Appalachian State (Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Appalachian State is a narrow 1.8-point favorite with a 54% win probability.
5-6 Penn State at 5-6 Rutgers (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, BTN): Penn State is favored by 14.4 points with an 82% win probability. Penn State, under interim head coach Terry Smith, demonstrated strong form in a 37-10 victory over Nebraska, with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton combining for 204 rushing yards and four touchdowns. A letdown against Rutgers, despite the Scarlet Knights’ decent offense, would be unexpected.

Other 5-6 Teams Seeking Eligibility:

5-6 Kentucky at Louisville (Saturday, noon ET, ACCN): Louisville is favored by 7.1 points with a 67% win probability.
Houston at 5-6 Baylor (Saturday, noon ET, TNT): Houston is favored by 3.4 points with a 42% win probability.
Colorado at 5-6 Kansas State (Saturday, noon ET, FS1): Kansas State is favored by 15.4 points with an 83% win probability.
UTEP at 5-6 Delaware (Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Delaware is favored by 5.0 points with a 62% win probability.
Louisiana-Monroe at 5-6 Louisiana (Saturday, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Louisiana is favored by 15.6 points with an 84% win probability.
South Alabama at 5-6 Texas State (Saturday, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Texas State is favored by 11.4 points with a 76% win probability.
5-5 Army at UTSA (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+): UTSA is favored by 7.3 points with a 68% win probability.
5-6 Florida State at Florida (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): Florida State is favored by 7.1 points with a 67% win probability.
Oregon State at 5-6 Washington State (Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET, The CW): Washington State is favored by 16.6 points with an 85% win probability.

SP+ Rankings: Notable Movers

The updated SP+ rankings for the week reflect significant shifts in team ratings.

Moving Up:

North Texas: Up 4.0 adjusted points per game (from 24th to 18th). Their video-game-like offensive display propelled them into the SP+ top 20, exceeding last year’s Boise State CFP ranking.
UNLV: Up 3.6 points (from 64th to 54th).
Wake Forest: Up 3.5 points (from 63rd to 52nd).
South Florida: Up 3.2 points (from 38th to 28th).
Vanderbilt: Up 3.2 points (from 18th to 13th). Vanderbilt’s dominant performance against Kentucky contributed to their late rise.

Moving Down:

Florida: Down 4.9 adjusted points per game (from 50th to 69th). At 69th overall, this marks Florida’s lowest team rating since 1979 (Charley Pell’s 0-10-1 inaugural season).
Syracuse: Down 4.5 points (from 101st to 118th).
UCLA: Down 3.9 points (from 85th to 101st).
Colorado: Down 3.3 points (from 78th to 96th).
Illinois: Down 3.2 points (from 23rd to 32nd).

Heisman Watch: Pavia Takes the Lead

With only two weeks remaining in the Heisman race, Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia has claimed the top spot in the weekly points standings.

This Week’s Top 10 Heisman Performances (F1-style scoring: 10 points for 1st, 9 for 2nd, etc.):

Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt: 33-for-39 passing for 484 yards, 5 touchdowns, 1 interception, plus 63 non-sack rushing yards and 1 touchdown against Kentucky.
Arch Manning, Texas: 18-for-30 passing for 389 yards, 4 touchdowns, plus 1 rushing touchdown and 1 receiving touchdown against Arkansas.
Drew Mestemaker, North Texas: 19-for-23 passing for 469 yards, 3 touchdowns, plus 1 rushing touchdown against Rice.
Joe Jackson, Kansas State: 24 carries for 293 yards, 3 touchdowns, plus 19 receiving yards against Utah.
Raleek Brown, Arizona State: 22 carries for 255 yards, 1 touchdown, plus 33 receiving yards and 1 receiving touchdown against Colorado.
LJ Martin, BYU: 32 carries for 222 yards, 2 touchdowns, plus 44 receiving yards against Cincinnati.
Wyatt Young, North Texas: 8 receptions for 295 yards, 2 touchdowns against Rice.
LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina: 16-for-20 passing for 274 yards, 2 touchdowns, plus 82 non-sack rushing yards and 2 touchdowns against Coastal Carolina.
Ja’Kyrian Turner, Pitt: 21 carries for 201 yards, 1 touchdown, plus 12 receiving yards against Georgia Tech.
Jordan Kwiatkowski, Central Michigan: 14 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 1 sack, and 1 forced fumble against Kent State.

The past week witnessed an exceptional array of individual performances, with any of the top seven contenders potentially deserving of the top spot in other weeks. Diego Pavia’s dominant performance, coupled with Vanderbilt’s defensive improvement against Kentucky, was particularly impactful. Over his last three games, Pavia has accumulated 1,226 passing yards (averaging 408.7 per game) with 11 touchdowns and only one interception, propelling him to the forefront of the Heisman points race.

Season-Long Points Leaders (through Week 13; tiebreaker: points over past four weeks):

Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (34 points)
Julian Sayin, Ohio State (29 points, 13 in past four weeks)
Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points, 0 in past four weeks)
Taylen Green, Arkansas (27 points)
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (26 points)
Gunner Stockton, Georgia (25 points, 6 in past four weeks)
Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (25 points, 0 in past four weeks)
Demond Williams Jr., Washington (21 points)
Haynes King, Georgia Tech (18 points)
Drew Mestemaker, North Texas (16 points, 8 in past four weeks)

With seven players within 10 points of the lead, the Heisman race remains tightly contested. Current ESPN BET betting odds favor Mendoza (-130) and Sayin (+425), with Jeremiyah Love (+500) and Pavia (+600) identified as other realistic contenders. Marcel Reed (+1400) and Gunner Stockton (+3500) are also listed. The outcome could hinge on the Big Ten championship game, potentially featuring