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The intensifying playoff battle in the NASCAR Cup Series has been overshadowed by a recurring debate surrounding the fairness of the sport’s qualifying metric, particularly after two crucial time trial sessions were washed out by rain during the initial stages of the Chase for the Championship. This recurring disruption has amplified concerns about the impact of the metric on crucial playoff points and the competitive balance of the championship.
The current qualifying metric, implemented in 2020, serves as the primary determinant for race starting orders when traditional qualifying is not feasible. It is calculated based on a weighted average, with 70 percent of the score derived from a team’s finishing position in the most recent race and 30 percent from their standing in the owner points. This system was initially introduced as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to the cancellation of qualifying for all events that season. It provided an alternative to simply awarding the pole position to the championship leader, a move that could have been perceived as inequitable.
However, the application of this metric during the ten-race playoff segment introduces a specific adjustment: the championship contenders, the top 16 drivers, are grouped together to take their qualifying attempts last. This is intended to provide them with an advantage, allowing them to gauge track conditions and adjust their strategy based on the performance of earlier qualifiers. The issue arises when rain intervenes, forcing NASCAR to set the entire starting lineup based solely on the metric, without the playoff grouping. This was the scenario that unfolded for both the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway and the Bristol Night Race, the first two races of the 2023 Chase.
The implications of this situation were particularly pronounced at Darlington. The starting grid for the Southern 500 was heavily influenced by the preceding race at Daytona International Speedway, a superspeedway notorious for its propensity for multi-car "Big One" crashes. For teams caught in these incidents, their finishing positions were severely compromised, leading to a significantly disadvantaged starting position at Darlington. This made it exceedingly difficult to contend for the Stage 1 win and the associated valuable stage points.
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Kyle Larson, driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, found himself a prominent victim of this particular circumstance. After being impacted by a Daytona crash, his starting position at Darlington was significantly lower than his usual competitive standing. This directly hindered his ability to earn early stage points, which are critical in the tightly contested championship format. Ironically, the same metric that disadvantaged Larson at Darlington propelled him to the pole at Bristol. Having secured a victory the previous week at Gateway, he benefited from the 70 percent finishing position component of the metric, earning the top spot.
Larson, along with his crew chief Cliff Daniels, has voiced their reservations about the current system when qualifying is rained out. Daniels, speaking to Motorsport.com on multiple occasions, has advocated for a return to a starting lineup based purely on owner points in such scenarios. This would have placed Larson seventh at Darlington and second at Bristol, reflecting his team’s consistent performance throughout the season rather than a potentially compromised prior race result.
"I mean, you can have the metric to set the qualifying order, but I think just lining up the field based off points would be good," Larson stated. "Especially in The Chase now or with this point format, every point being so important. I thought it just was kind of crappy to feel like we were starting off a disadvantage (at Darlington) and we raced our butts off and just missed stage one points."
Larson currently holds a precarious one-point lead over Denny Hamlin in the championship standings with seven races remaining. The stage points lost at Darlington could prove to be a significant factor in the final outcome. While acknowledging that his team could have performed better at Daytona to mitigate the issue, Larson expressed a desire for a more straightforward approach when weather disrupts the schedule. "But yeah, I think curious what other teams think, but I think setting the metric for qualifying order is okay, but I think if it rains out, I would say I’d be for going back to just starting off points," he added.
Denny Hamlin, another championship contender, firmly rejected any notion of returning to a random pill draw for determining starting order, aligning with Larson on that point. "The random stuff, no," Hamlin commented. "Absolutely not. I mean, could you imagine going to the finale and two guys battling for a championship, one draws pill one, like that’s horrible. Random? Absolutely not. You’ve got to earn your way. If you want to do 50-50, that’s fine, because we’re 20 some races in. If you’re buried in the point, it’s not because the metric did it. It’s because you didn’t perform well."
Addressing the rainout scenario, Hamlin acknowledged the complexity, particularly when it occurs at the start of the Chase and immediately following a superspeedway event. "If it rains, it’s difficult because (Darlington) kicked off the Chase, and it also was after a (super)speedway, and we all know speedways can get very random, right," Hamlin said. "Yeah, I don’t know. We don’t want to make it too complicated for the fans that at this racetrack, you set your metric one way, another way, you do it, I don’t know, if you just do 50 percent or more of where you are in the standings, then I think that that kind of will fix itself in the long run."
Ryan Blaney, driver of the No. 12 Team Penske Ford, initially expressed a degree of detachment when questioned about the issue at Gateway. He described the confluence of a superspeedway race followed by a Chase playoff race with a rained-out qualifying session as a unique and eyebrow-raising occurrence. However, the repetition of this scenario at Bristol amplified its impact, affecting critical elements like pit stall selection and early stage points.
"I personally feel like the metric is a good thing," Blaney stated. "Random draws have been brought up, but then we’re going to complain when I draw pill one and it’s like, ‘well, why the heck should I go out first when I’m in The Chase?’ So I don’t know. I personally think it’s good where it’s at. It was just one of those situations (that) weekend that was pretty unique and sometimes those unique things happen, you have to just deal with it."
Other drivers offered varied perspectives. Ross Chastain, driver of the No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet, adopted a pragmatic approach, stating he is not involved in discussions with NASCAR regarding these formats and will simply adapt to whatever rules are in place. Bubba Wallace, piloting the No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota, found the metric itself to be fair from a qualifying order standpoint. "That part is fair," Wallace said. "You have the top 16 guys that are fighting for a championship and the metric is a competition within the race, because we all want to go out last on Saturdays. If you have a bad race, you pay for it, and that’s sport. I think that’s fair, and I have no complaints." His primary point of confusion, however, arises with rainouts, which shift him from a potentially advantageous late qualifying position to being dictated by his previous race result.
Michael McDowell, driver of the No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford, suggested that qualifying rainouts are infrequent occurrences during the Chase, typically happening only once or twice. "How you feel about it depends on where you are right," McDowell explained. "I mean, I don’t know what the fairest thing is, right, because like even out late isn’t advantage (everywhere) you know, and those Chase guys that get to go out last, that’s an earned advantage over the whole season. I think I’m okay with how we’re doing that. As far as rainouts go, I don’t think you can change it. The metric is working everywhere else except in those scenarios. The rainout will happen once or twice over a Chase format, but over the whole season, it’s fair."
Brad Keselowski, driver of the No. 6 RFK Racing Ford, offered a more philosophical outlook, comparing the pursuit of perfect fairness in the qualifying format to the inherent inequities of life itself. "I don’t know if there’s really a great way to work through those situations," Keselowski remarked. "I’ve been around the sport long enough to see multiple different systems and I didn’t really like any of them. None of them are great. You’re trying to find a solution to something that isn’t equitable to begin with. It rains out or whatever the situation is that makes you have to use the metric, there’s no real equitable or fair way to do it, so then NASCAR is just trying to be consistent. There’s winners and losers. That’s how life works. I don’t particularly feel great about any of the systems enough to sit here and say that, ‘Oh, we should do this one instead.’ And I have a lot of empathy for NASCAR who gets forced into making that decision because I can honestly sit and say that if I was in their position, I don’t know what better decision there is to make."
As the Chase continues, the debate over the qualifying metric, especially in the face of unpredictable weather, is likely to persist, underscoring the ongoing challenge for NASCAR to balance competitive fairness with logistical realities.
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