Ali Akbar Rosady
Las Vegas, NV – The mixed martial arts world is abuzz following the official announcement of Conor McGregor’s highly anticipated return to the octagon, but early betting lines suggest a challenging path for the former two-division champion. McGregor is set to face Max Holloway in the main event of UFC 329 on July 11, held at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas during International Fight Week. While the bout marks a rematch of their 2013 encounter, which McGregor won by unanimous decision, current oddsmakers have positioned "The Notorious" as a considerable underdog.
According to figures released by BetOnline.Ag, McGregor is presently listed at +475, indicating a significant underdog status. Conversely, Max "Blessed" Holloway enters the contest as a substantial favorite, priced at -450. These odds translate to an implied win probability of approximately 17.4 percent for McGregor, underscoring the perceived difficulty of his comeback fight against one of the sport’s most consistent and high-volume strikers. The wide margin in the betting lines reflects a confluence of factors, including McGregor’s prolonged absence from active competition, his age, and Holloway’s sustained elite-level performances.
A Decade in the Making: The Rematch Narrative
The first meeting between Conor McGregor and Max Holloway occurred on August 17, 2013, at UFC Fight Night 26 in Boston. Both fighters were burgeoning talents in the featherweight division, with McGregor holding a professional record of 13-2 and Holloway standing at 7-2. The contest was a pivotal moment in both their careers. McGregor, despite tearing his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) mid-fight, secured a unanimous decision victory (30-27, 30-27, 30-26), showcasing his potent striking and composure even with a significant injury. This win propelled McGregor into a rapid ascent towards the featherweight title, while Holloway embarked on a remarkable journey of his own.
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Fast forward over a decade, and both fighters have cemented their legacies as icons of the sport. The context for this rematch could not be more different.
Conor McGregor’s Long Road to Return
For Conor McGregor, the path back to the UFC cage has been fraught with challenges. The 35-year-old (soon to be 36 by fight night) has not competed since July 2021, when he suffered a devastating leg injury—a fractured tibia and fibula—during his trilogy bout against Dustin Poirier at UFC 264. This injury capped a period of limited activity and mixed results, following his historic "champ-champ" status in 2016 when he simultaneously held the UFC Featherweight and Lightweight titles.
After his boxing super-fight with Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2017, McGregor’s MMA career saw a significant reduction in frequency. He lost his lightweight title to Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2018, secured a quick TKO win over Donald Cerrone in 2020, and then suffered back-to-back TKO losses to Dustin Poirier in 2021. The leg injury against Poirier marked a severe physical setback, necessitating extensive rehabilitation and a lengthy hiatus from professional competition. His return at UFC 329 will signify a nearly three-year layoff since his last fight and a five-year absence from regular contention at the sport’s pinnacle.
Concerns surrounding ring rust, his ability to absorb damage after such a severe injury, and the enduring effects of age on a fighter known for his explosive power and precision striking are undoubtedly factored into the betting community’s assessment. McGregor’s professional record stands at 22 wins and 6 losses.
Max Holloway: The Epitome of Consistency
In stark contrast to McGregor’s recent inactivity, Max Holloway has maintained a rigorous schedule against the elite of the featherweight and lightweight divisions. The 32-year-old Hawaiian boasts a professional record of 25 wins and 8 losses, including an impressive 13-fight winning streak that culminated in him becoming the undisputed UFC Featherweight Champion. During his reign, Holloway successfully defended his title multiple times against formidable opponents such as Jose Aldo (twice), Brian Ortega, and Frankie Edgar, solidifying his reputation as one of the most dominant featherweights in UFC history.
Holloway’s signature style is characterized by relentless pressure, unparalleled striking volume, exceptional cardio, and a granite chin. While he has experienced losses in recent years, particularly in his trilogy with Alexander Volkanovski and a second lightweight bout against Dustin Poirier, these defeats have come against reigning or former champions. His most recent outing was a hard-fought loss to Charles Oliveira at UFC 326 in March, where he challenged for the symbolic "BMF" title. Despite the defeat, Holloway once again demonstrated his durability and offensive prowess, reinforcing his standing as a top-tier competitor.
Holloway’s consistent activity against high-level opposition, coupled with his prime fighting age and proven ability to perform in five-round main events, provides a compelling argument for his favoritism in the upcoming rematch. His experience, coupled with McGregor’s layoff and injury history, positions him as the perceived stronger fighter by oddsmakers entering this highly anticipated clash.
UFC 329 Undercard: Supporting Cast of High Stakes
Beyond the blockbuster main event, UFC 329 is scheduled to feature several other significant matchups that have also garnered early betting lines from BetOnline.Ag:
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Benoit Saint Denis (-170) vs. Paddy Pimblett (+145): This lightweight co-main event pits two fan-favorite, high-octane fighters against each other. France’s Benoit Saint Denis has rapidly ascended the ranks with his aggressive, grappling-heavy style and relentless pressure, earning him a reputation for exciting finishes. Paddy Pimblett, the charismatic Liverpudlian, brings a strong submission game and a massive following, though his striking defense has been questioned. The odds suggest Saint Denis is favored, reflecting his recent form against higher-ranked opponents.
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Cory Sandhagen (-150) vs. Mario Bautista (+130): A pivotal bantamweight clash sees top contender Cory Sandhagen, known for his innovative striking and dynamic movement, take on the surging Mario Bautista. Sandhagen consistently faces the division’s elite, while Bautista has quietly amassed an impressive win streak, showcasing a well-rounded skillset. This bout carries significant implications for the bantamweight title picture.
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Brandon Royval (+145) vs. Lone’er Kavanagh (-170): In the flyweight division, the unpredictable and action-oriented Brandon Royval, known for his frenetic pace and submission threats, faces Lone’er Kavanagh. Kavanagh, an emerging talent, enters as the favorite, indicating confidence in his potential against a seasoned and dangerous opponent like Royval. Details on Kavanagh’s professional record and background will likely emerge closer to the fight date.
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Gable Steveson (-1800) vs. Elisha Ellison (+900): The most lopsided odds on the card belong to the heavyweight debut of Olympic gold medalist wrestler Gable Steveson. Steveson, with his unparalleled amateur wrestling pedigree, is a colossal favorite, typical for highly touted prospects making their professional MMA debut against less experienced opposition. Elisha Ellison, an unknown quantity in terms of prominent MMA experience, faces the daunting task of welcoming one of the most decorated amateur wrestlers into the professional mixed martial arts arena.
The complete UFC 329 card promises a night of compelling matchups, with the return of Conor McGregor against Max Holloway serving as the undeniable centerpiece. As fight week approaches, further analysis of fighter camps, physical conditions, and potential tactical approaches will undoubtedly influence public betting and intensify the anticipation for this high-stakes event.
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