NHL's Early Season Verdict: Dissecting the Surprises One Month In.

The initial month of the National Hockey League’s 2025-26 season has unveiled a dynamic landscape, where traditional powerhouses and long-shot contenders alike are redefining expectations. While perennial playoff favorites largely maintain their strong positions, and struggling franchises like the San Jose Sharks continue to grapple with bottom-tier rankings, a distinct cohort of teams has either significantly overperformed or severely underwhelmed. This early-season volatility underscores the unpredictable nature of the league, with several clubs demonstrating potential shifts in the balance of power. Analysis, drawing upon comprehensive metrics including playoff odds, detailed season statistics, Neil Paine’s Elo ratings, and other proprietary indicators of team quality, reveals the extent to which teams have deviated from preseason projections. These initial findings prompt critical questions regarding the sustainability of both surprising surges and unexpected slumps. The following report from SportsBreakNews.com delves into the most notable early-season anomalies, assessing which trends appear robust and what these developments signify for the ongoing playoff race and the future trajectory of the league.

Pleasant Surprises

Anaheim Ducks

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Under the new leadership of head coach Joel Quenneville, the Anaheim Ducks have experienced an unexpectedly potent start to the 2025-26 campaign. His inaugural season at the helm has seen the Ducks surge to the top of the league in goals per game and secure a remarkable fourth-place standing in overall goal differential. This performance marks a significant departure from their recent history, where the team had not ranked better than 24th in scoring or 21st in goal differential since the 2018-19 season, indicating a fundamental shift in their offensive and defensive capabilities.

The forward corps, featuring promising young talents Cutter Gauthier and Leo Carlsson alongside established winger Troy Terry, has been exceptionally productive, collectively tallying 49 points. Defensively, former Rangers captain Jacob Trouba has solidified the blue line, providing veteran leadership and robust play, while goaltender Lukas Dostal has supplied strong and consistent performances in net. With one of the best records in the NHL, a team that had missed the playoffs and failed to post a winning record for seven consecutive seasons now holds a 61% probability of postseason contention.

The chance for this positive trend to continue is assessed as moderate. While a 12-game sample size is early for definitive pronouncements in the inherently random nature of hockey, the underlying metrics are encouraging. The Ducks, despite still ranking 26th in the slowly adjusting Elo ratings, are generating significantly more scoring chances than in previous years, an indicator of sustainable offensive improvement. With the league’s third-youngest roster, the early success appears rooted in a long-term developmental strategy rather than a fleeting hot streak.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Pittsburgh Penguins entered the 2025-26 season largely written off by many observers, with widespread speculation concerning the potential trades of Sidney Crosby and Erik Karlsson, and even Evgeni Malkin’s retirement. Coming off a 2024-25 season where they were the oldest team in hockey and ranked sixth-worst in goals-per-game differential, a rapid turnaround seemed improbable. However, the Penguins have defied expectations, positioning themselves as an early contender.

Captain Sidney Crosby, at 38, continues to perform at an elite level, demonstrating remarkable longevity. Malkin and Karlsson have both rediscovered the offensive touch that defined their prime years, while new additions Justin Brazeau and Anthony Mantha have provided crucial secondary scoring. The goaltending tandem of Arturs Silovs and Tristan Jarry has also been a standout, contributing significantly to the team’s improved defensive solidity. Pittsburgh now remarkably ranks in the top five in goal differential, a feat not achieved since the 2020-21 season, and boasts a 56% chance of returning to the playoffs after a three-year absence.

Despite this impressive start, the probability of sustained success is rated as low to moderate. Several warning signs suggest the Penguins may struggle to maintain this pace. The team remains the league’s fifth-oldest, with a significant reliance on veterans. Eight of their top 12 players by goals above replacement (GAR) — including Malkin, Crosby, Karlsson, Mantha, Jarry, Kris Letang, Bryan Rust, and Rickard Rakell — are 30 years or older. Furthermore, the team’s early success is bolstered by unsustainably high percentages: a league-leading 35.9% power-play success rate, the NHL’s fifth-highest team shooting percentage (13%), and the second-best save percentage (.909). When these percentages normalize, underlying metrics, which show the team outside the top 20 in zone-time percentage and share of total scoring chances, indicate potential regression.

Utah Mammoth

Embracing a fresh start and a new identity as the Utah Mammoth this season, the franchise appears to be skating at full speed toward a bright future. The Mammoth currently rank among the top 10 in both points percentage and goals-per-game differential, buoyed by the league’s 11th-best offense and defense. Core players Nick Schmaltz, Logan Cooley, Mikhail Sergachev, Dylan Guenther, and Clayton Keller, all in their prime or younger, are on pace for career-best seasons by goals above replacement (GAR). Newcomers JJ Peterka and Nate Schmidt have also made significant contributions, seamlessly integrating into the team’s system.

Defensively, the Mammoth boast the league’s best unit in terms of fewest shots allowed per game, showcasing a disciplined and effective structure. The team’s playoff probability currently stands at 69%, marking only the second time since 2011-12 (including their tenure as the Arizona Coyotes) that the franchise has held such strong postseason prospects.

The chance for this strong performance to continue is rated as high. The Mammoth’s early success is not a fluke; if anything, their current .643 points percentage might even undervalue their underlying quality. The team ranks seventh in the share of shot attempts, eighth in scoring chances, and sixth in expected goals, indicating consistent control of play. This performance has been achieved against the league’s third-hardest schedule by average opponent Elo rating. Critically, their schedule significantly eases going forward, becoming the 27th-hardest remaining. While the goaltending duo of Karel Vejmelka and Vitek Vanecek has been mediocre so far, ranking 25th in team save percentage, the skaters’ ability to generate chances and play airtight defense suggests that improved netminding could elevate the team further. Utah presents a formidable challenge that more established opponents would be wary of in a playoff scenario.

Detroit Red Wings

The Detroit Red Wings entered the 2025-26 season with a familiar narrative: a team that has teased a playoff return on multiple occasions without fully delivering. Despite this cautious optimism, the Red Wings’ players are demonstrably clicking, led by captain Dylan Larkin, who is playing at a pace that suggests a long-shot MVP candidacy. He is complemented by Alex DeBrincat and the burgeoning trio of Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider, and Emmitt Finnie, all contributing significantly to the team’s improved performance.

While no single statistic on the Red Wings’ résumé immediately jumps off the page, their improvement is notable. Even with their enhanced play, they rank 15th in goals-per-game differential, which, while seemingly modest, would represent their best mark since the second-to-last season of their storied 25-year playoff streak that concluded after 2015-16.

The chance for Detroit’s upward trend to continue is assessed as moderate. With a 59% playoff chance, the Red Wings remain on the skate-blade’s edge of securing a postseason berth, and their middle-of-the-road statistical rankings suggest a stressful journey ahead. However, there are compelling reasons to believe Detroit can solidify their position. In terms of expected goals, a metric that filters out luck from shooting and save percentages to measure control of play, they rank ninth in the share predicted to go their way. Additionally, there is potential for better goaltending from veterans Cam Talbot and John Gibson, whose career track records are superior to their average performances thus far this season. Furthermore, the schedule offers some relief, transitioning from the fourth-hardest faced to date to the 16th-hardest going forward.

Not-So-Pleasant Surprises

St. Louis Blues

Following a remarkable late-season surge under new coach Jim Montgomery last season, where the St. Louis Blues compiled a 21-9 record over the final 30 regular-season games (a better mark than the 20-10 finish of their 2018-19 Stanley Cup-winning team), expectations for the 2025-26 season were high. However, the Blues have stumbled out of the gate, posting a 5-8-3 record and holding the league’s second-worst overall standing. They currently sit last in goals allowed per game and goals-per-game differential, experiencing the largest loss of playoff probability (-34%) of any team since opening night.

The team’s top skaters—including Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, Dylan Holloway, Colton Parayko, and Cam Fowler—have all significantly undershot their goals above replacement (GAR) expectations. Compounding these struggles, goaltender Jordan Binnington has been among the NHL’s least effective netminders. His struggles were notably punctuated by an incident involving Alex Ovechkin’s 900th goal, where Binnington attempted to hide the puck, highlighting a challenging period for the veteran.

The probability of this negative trend continuing is rated as low to moderate. Despite their dismal start, the Blues retain a 32% playoff probability, largely due to the underwhelming performance of other teams in the Western Conference basement. Underlying metrics suggest a potential rebound. St. Louis has been one of the unluckiest teams in the league by PDO, a stat measuring shooting and save percentages that tends to regress to the mean. Beneath the surface, the team ranks seventh in their share of total scoring chances, 11th in their share of expected goals, and fourth in offensive zone time percentage. If the goaltending tandem of Binnington and Joel Hofer, currently 31st in team save percentage, can improve closer to league average, the Blues are very capable of turning their season around.

Calgary Flames

For some time, the Calgary Flames have operated on a parallel trajectory with the St. Louis Blues, culminating in their tie for the West’s final playoff spot in 2024-25 (which St. Louis won on a tiebreaker). Now, the Flames share the dubious distinction of having experienced the largest decrease in playoff chances in the league to start 2025-26. Their goaltenders, Dustin Wolf and Devin Cooley, have performed admirably under challenging circumstances, playing behind a defense that allows 30.5 shots per game. However, they have received some of the league’s worst goal support, with the Flames’ 2.06 goals-per-game rate ranking last in the NHL. This team entered the season needing either more offensive punch or a more stingy defensive approach, but has, so far, achieved neither.

The chance for this challenging period to continue is assessed as moderate. The Flames are in a more precarious position than the Blues, with their playoff odds having plummeted to 18%, roughly half that of St. Louis. The outlook for an offensive turnaround is particularly bleak, given the team ranked 29th in goals per game last season and made minimal additions over the summer. The team is banking on positive regression from veterans such as Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, Blake Coleman, and Yegor Sharangovich, whose historical scoring numbers suggest they are underperforming.

However, Calgary does possess a few mitigating factors. Their underlying scoring-chance and expected-goals shares are better than their poor record indicates. Crucially, the Flames face the most significant scheduling easement in the league, transitioning from the number one most difficult schedule faced to the 30th-most difficult going forward, which could provide much-needed relief.

New York Rangers

Weeks prior to the 2025-26 season, SportsBreakNews.com highlighted the New York Rangers as a team under immense pressure to prove that last season’s disappointing performance was an anomaly for a franchise that has largely been a model of consistency over the past two decades. However, their start to the current season has done little to dispel concerns that fundamental issues persist within the Broadway Blueshirts.

New York currently ranks 20th in goals-per-game differential, a mark they have only reached twice since the 2005 lockout. The manner in which they have achieved this is statistically peculiar: they boast the best defense in the league by goals allowed per game, yet simultaneously field the second-worst offense. Such an extreme disparity in offensive and defensive rankings has not been observed since the 1963 Chicago Blackhawks, who finished first defensively and sixth offensively (a high ranking for the Original Six era).

The probability of this unusual trend continuing is rated as low. Similar to the St. Louis Blues, the Rangers maintain reasonably decent playoff odds (41%) despite their low standing in the Eastern Conference. The team possesses too much offensive talent—including Artemi Panarin, J.T. Miller, and Mika Zibanejad—to remain last in scoring, particularly after six consecutive seasons of ranking 16th or better offensively. While their defensive dominance might slightly regress, a 31st-ranked offense is far less characteristic of this roster. In terms of controlling play, the Rangers rank fourth in scoring-chance share, fifth in expected-goals share, and seventh in offensive zone-time share. When their league-worst 7.8% shooting percentage inevitably improves, the Rangers are expected to begin winning more consistently, and their playoff chances will likely rise significantly.

Minnesota Wild

Prior to the 2025-26 season, the Minnesota Wild made headlines by signing Kirill Kaprizov to the richest contract in NHL history (set to commence next season), reflecting his indispensable value to the franchise. Since 2020-21, Kaprizov had been responsible for approximately one-third of Minnesota’s offense, and in 2024-25, the team performed like a borderline top-10 unit with him on the ice, but significantly declined without him. Kaprizov continues to uphold his end of the bargain this season, on pace for 45 adjusted goals and 105 adjusted points.

However, the team’s goaltending, defense, and depth scoring have not matched his output. Minnesota ranks a disappointing 20th in goals per game despite Kaprizov’s production, alongside a 25th ranking in goals allowed per game and 29th in overall goals-per-game differential. This suggests that the Wild’s substantial commitment to one player has, to start the season, been insufficient to overcome the collective flaws of the rest of the roster.

The probability of this struggling trend continuing is rated as moderate to high. The Wild present a confusing mixed bag of statistics in 2025-26. On the positive side, they are a top-six team in terms of share of offensive zone time, which typically suggests potential for improved results once their 98.9 PDO (ranking 25th in the league and indicative of bad luck) normalizes. However, the Wild have not capitalized effectively on this zone time, ranking 23rd in scoring-chance share and 25th in expected-goals share, which may signal a need for tactical adjustments from coach John Hynes to generate higher quality opportunities. Adding to their challenges, the Wild face a slightly tougher schedule from this point forward, and with only a 24% playoff chance, their margin for error is exceedingly thin.