CFP Committee Prepares for Second Ranking Reveal, Undefeated Indiana and Texas A&M Vie for No. 2 Spot

Following the initial release of the College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings, selection committee chair Mack Rhoades emphasized the core principle guiding their decisions: "We’ve watched the games," he stated during the weekly teleconference. "Let me repeat that; we watch the games." This commitment to film study and on-field performance will be crucial as the committee convenes to determine its second set of rankings, set for Tuesday night at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. A central debate is expected to revolve around the No. 2 position, with undefeated Indiana and Texas A&M presenting compelling, yet distinct, cases. Indiana narrowly escaped a 3-6 Penn State team, while Texas A&M secured a decisive victory over a CFP top-25 opponent in Mizzou. The committee’s deliberations will delve into detailed statistics, team résumés, and the context of last week’s No. 2 and No. 3 placements. Another significant discussion point will be the projected fall of No. 7 BYU following their 29-7 loss to No. 8 Texas Tech.

Here is an in-depth projection of the selection committee’s potential top 12 ahead of Tuesday’s announcement:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0)

The Ohio State Buckeyes are widely anticipated to retain their No. 1 ranking, maintaining their flawless record with a victory over 2-8 Purdue. While the 33rd strength of schedule (SoS) according to ESPN Analytics might raise some questions, the Buckeyes consistently demonstrate elite performance, ranking No. 1 in Game Control and No. 3 in Strength of Record (SoR). Committee chair Rhoades previously highlighted the Buckeyes’ slight edge in offensive line play and defensive prowess after reviewing game film. "Ohio State has some, I’m going to call them explosive players, that probably stood out as well," Rhoades noted, underscoring the team’s talent. Despite Texas A&M’s strong performance, it would be challenging for the committee to justify dropping Ohio State, especially given Indiana’s close call against Penn State. The Buckeyes entered Week 11 with a commanding 99.2% chance to reach the playoff, a 41.1% chance for the No. 1 seed, and a 27% chance to win the national championship, solidifying their position as a top contender. Their toughest remaining fixture is the rivalry game on November 29 at Michigan, where they will aim to avoid a fifth consecutive loss to the Wolverines.

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2. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0)

Indiana’s perfect 10-0 record positions them strongly for a top-four berth, despite a challenging road victory against a 3-6 Penn State squad that did little to bolster their résumé. The Hoosiers’ earlier double-digit road win against No. 9 Oregon and another CFP top-25 triumph at Iowa remain critical components of their case. Both Oregon and Iowa were involved in close contests on Saturday, with Oregon securing a game-winning field goal against Iowa. Indiana’s ability to dispatch two strong teams, and a historic 63-10 win against 6-3 Illinois, further solidifies their standing, even if Illinois is not a CFP top-25 opponent. The primary challenge to Indiana’s No. 2 spot comes from Texas A&M, which boasts a higher strength of schedule and strength of record, according to ESPN metrics. However, Indiana’s overall body of work is expected to keep them ahead for now. With remaining opponents Wisconsin and Purdue both holding six losses, Indiana entered Week 11 with the best chance in the Big Ten to reach the conference championship game. Their toughest remaining game is an in-state rivalry matchup on November 28 at Purdue, a Friday night contest where ESPN Analytics gives them at least a 97% chance of victory.

3. Texas A&M Aggies (9-0)

Texas A&M continues to build a compelling case for a higher ranking, marked by their dominant 38-17 road win at Mizzou on Saturday. This victory extends their streak to three consecutive SEC road wins, complementing their earlier triumph at Notre Dame on September 13. While the committee will note Mizzou’s absence of starting quarterback Beau Pribula, and the Aggies’ comfortable handling of freshman Matt Zollers in his first start, the overall performance was impressive. Last week, Rhoades acknowledged Texas A&M as a "really, really good football team," praising their "dynamic playmaker at quarterback, Marcel Reed," who can threaten defenses with both his arm and feet. Rhoades also cited the Aggies’ lower defensive efficiency ranking (No. 18) compared to Ohio State (No. 3) and Indiana (No. 2) as a "separator" in last week’s tough decision. However, with Indiana’s narrow escape against Penn State, Texas A&M’s sound road win against a ranked Mizzou team could prompt a reevaluation. The Aggies entered Saturday with a 56.7% chance to earn a first-round bye but faced less than a 50% chance to beat Texas in their regular-season finale. That matchup, on November 28 at Texas, represents their toughest remaining game and only ranked opponent left on the schedule.

4. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1)

Alabama is expected to hold its position as the highest-ranked one-loss team after securing a home victory against LSU on Saturday. Their head-to-head win over Georgia remains a critical factor, keeping them above the Bulldogs. The Tide’s road win against No. 5 Georgia is arguably one of the most impressive victories in the country, potentially surpassing any claimed by the undefeated teams above them. The season-opening loss to Florida State continues to be the primary impediment to a higher ranking. The October 11 win at Mizzou is still considered strong, particularly as Alabama faced the Tigers with their starting quarterback Beau Pribula healthy. A CFP top-25 win against Tennessee, which had a bye this week, further bolsters their résumé. Rhoades previously lauded Alabama’s "really, really impressive" four-game stretch, including two road wins, one in Athens, which he described as "one of the hardest, toughest environments." He also highlighted the "historical in the SEC" achievement of beating four straight ranked teams without a bye. Alabama’s strength of schedule (No. 4 nationally) heading into Week 11 surpassed all teams ranked above it, though they were No. 5 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric. Their toughest remaining game is on November 15 against Oklahoma.

5. Georgia Bulldogs (8-1)

Georgia is projected to remain at No. 5, positioned between Alabama and Ole Miss due to head-to-head results. The Bulldogs secured a straightforward win at Mississippi State, avoiding the second-half surges or comeback efforts seen in their previous three games. Rhoades expressed the committee’s appreciation for Georgia’s performance, noting quarterback Gunner Stockton’s progression and increased confidence, describing him as a dual-threat player. The committee explicitly factored in the head-to-head loss at home against Alabama and the road victory against Ole Miss. Given that no drastic results occurred around them, Georgia is unlikely to experience significant movement in this week’s rankings. The Bulldogs will play their final SEC game of the season on Saturday against Texas, before concluding the month against Charlotte and rival Georgia Tech. Their toughest remaining game is the November 15 clash against Texas. The Longhorns, coming off a bye week and a four-game winning streak, will present a significant challenge in Athens, especially with Georgia having just played a road game.

6. Ole Miss Rebels (9-1)

Ole Miss is poised to stay at No. 6, with their dominant win against The Citadel doing little to alter their standing, as their respect was already established in the first ranking. The Rebels remain behind Georgia due to their head-to-head road loss to the Bulldogs on October 18. Heading into Saturday, Ole Miss held a slight advantage over Texas Tech in Strength of Record and a more significant lead in strength of schedule (No. 25 vs. No. 58). The committee will also consider Ole Miss’s road loss to Georgia as a "better loss" than Texas Tech’s road defeat to Arizona State, a team that has lost two of its last four games. However, Texas Tech’s recent win over previously undefeated BYU could apply pressure. Ole Miss’s most impressive victory remains the October 25 road game against No. 12 Oklahoma. The 45-10 win against Tulane on September 20 continues to enhance the Rebels’ overall record strength. Tulane’s subsequent wins against Memphis, Northwestern, and Duke are noted, as the committee pays attention to "opponents’ opponents." The Egg Bowl, on November 28 at Mississippi State, represents their toughest remaining game, a potential trap that could impact their playoff seeding or even their inclusion.

7. Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-1)

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are expected to climb in the rankings after a commanding double-digit victory over previously undefeated BYU, showcasing them as arguably the best team in the Big 12 on Saturday. While their loss to Arizona State could keep them behind Ole Miss, the committee considers mitigating factors such as injuries. The Red Raiders were without starting quarterback Behren Morton (knee) during their close road loss to the Sun Devils, a "quality loss" that Rhoades noted the committee discusses alongside "quality wins." Beyond the BYU victory, Texas Tech also earned a significant road win against No. 13 Utah. The Red Raiders’ consistent dominance, with nine wins by at least 20 points this season, and a defense that held BYU to its fewest points in two seasons, further bolsters their case. According to ESPN Analytics, Texas Tech has a 93% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, with BYU at 55% and Cincinnati at 19%. A potential Big 12 championship could significantly enhance their résumé. Their toughest remaining game is on November 29 at West Virginia, a notoriously difficult venue, although they hold at least an 80% chance to win their final two regular-season games.

8. Oregon Ducks (8-1)

Oregon received a crucial résumé boost with their Saturday road win at Iowa, marking their first victory against a CFP top-25 team. Rhoades had previously pointed out Oregon’s lowest record strength among the top 10. The Iowa victory also demonstrated the Ducks’ impressive depth and resilience, as they secured the win in adverse weather conditions and without several injured starters, including three key receivers. The committee will weigh whether Iowa’s three losses will cause them to fall out of the top 25, potentially diminishing the quality of Oregon’s win. Nonetheless, the Ducks have consistently passed the "eye test," ranking in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency prior to Saturday. With the exception of their two close road wins at Iowa and Penn State, Oregon has largely dominated opponents, ranking No. 4 nationally in Game Control. Despite having at least a 70% chance to win each of their remaining games (Minnesota, USC, and at Washington) according to ESPN Analytics, their head-to-head home loss to Indiana remains a significant obstacle to reaching the Big Ten title game. Their toughest remaining game is on November 22 against USC, a game that could flip the conference pecking order if the Trojans can also beat Iowa.

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2)

Notre Dame is expected to hold steady after dismantling an outmatched Navy team, which played without injured starting quarterback Blake Horvath. This victory extends their winning streak to seven games after an 0-2 start. The committee previously acknowledged that their two early losses were by a combined four points to two CFP top-25 teams, including the unbeaten No. 3 Texas A&M. The Irish’s 34-24 win against USC on October 18 continues to resonate, especially with USC now holding a 7-2 record. Rhoades recently praised Notre Dame’s defensive improvement and highlighted their "best backfield in the country" with Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love. He also noted their ability to overcome the loss of their starting center against USC while still producing significant rushing yards. Notre Dame’s ranking hinges somewhat on BYU’s drop after their loss to Texas Tech; a significant fall for the Cougars could lead to a slight promotion for the Irish. ESPN Analytics indicates Notre Dame still has the best chance of any team to win out. Their toughest remaining game is on November 15 at Pitt, where the Panthers, currently on a five-game winning streak, will have had a bye week to prepare.

10. Texas Longhorns (7-2)

The Texas Longhorns, coming off a bye week, are projected to remain in the top 12. They have won four straight games, including CFP top-25 victories against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. While Vanderbilt needed overtime to defeat a 4-6 Auburn team, that win still contributes positively to Texas’s résumé. The October 4 road loss at Florida remains a notable "stain," but their 14-7 season-opening road loss to No. 1 Ohio State is not seen as detrimental. The committee will likely compare Texas’s SoS (No. 11) favorably against BYU’s (No. 45), although BYU’s lone loss was to a top-10 team, while Texas lost to Florida. No team has a greater opportunity to impress the selection committee in the final three weeks than Texas, with matchups against two CFP top-five teams in No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M. Winning both could propel them past Notre Dame. However, splitting these games could result in a three-loss team potentially excluded from the playoff, similar to Alabama last year. Their toughest remaining game is the November 28 clash against in-state rival Texas A&M, the second top-five team they will face in a three-week span.

11. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2)

Oklahoma is expected to stay at No. 11 after their bye week, primarily due to their head-to-head loss to Texas on October 11. Wins against Tennessee and Michigan keep them within range of the 12-team playoff field, particularly as the committee ranked Tennessee at No. 25, making them the highest-ranked three-loss team. The committee is unlikely to shuffle this order given both Texas and Oklahoma were off this week, though OU could remain at No. 12 if BYU is kept higher. A critical "need to know" for Oklahoma is that if the playoff were held today, they would likely be bumped out during the seeding process to accommodate the ACC champion, which is currently projected to be ranked outside the top 12 but guaranteed a spot. Their toughest remaining game is on November 15 at Alabama, a must-win situation as a third loss would likely not be offset by their current résumé, placing them firmly on the playoff bubble.

12. BYU Cougars (8-1)

BYU is projected to fall to No. 12 after their significant 29-7 road loss to No. 7 Texas Tech. While their October 18 win against Utah is a quality victory, the nature of Saturday’s defeat will heavily influence the committee. BYU was thoroughly outplayed, managing only 67 rushing yards, committing three turnovers, averaging 4.9 yards per pass, and converting just 3 of 14 third downs. This performance prompts a reevaluation of BYU’s entire body of work, especially given their strength of schedule (No. 45) significantly trails Notre Dame (23), Texas (11), and Oklahoma (13). The committee will likely honor BYU’s head-to-head win against Utah, providing a safety net to keep them in the top 12. However, a drop behind two-loss Texas and Oklahoma is not unreasonable. Their toughest remaining game is on November 22 at Cincinnati. If BYU manages to run the table and win the Big 12 title game, they would secure a playoff spot. However, a scenario where they finish as a two-loss runner-up with a second lopsided loss to Texas Tech could see them excluded to make room for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, currently projected to be South Florida out of the American Conference.

Projected Playoff Bracket

Based on the projected rankings, the seeding for the College Football Playoff would be as follows:

First-round Byes:

No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC Champion)
No. 4 Alabama

First-round Games:
(On campus, December 19 and 20)

No. 12 South Florida (American Champion) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech (ACC Champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Texas Tech (Big 12 Champion)
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal Games:
(At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential, and Allstate Sugar Bowl on December 31 and January 1)