Why Sunday’s NASCAR Cup race at Darlington is a real throwback

The primary catalyst for this anticipated shift is NASCAR’s decision to implement a 750-horsepower engine package, a notable increase from the 670-horsepower configuration that has been standard since the Next Gen car’s debut in 2022. This power surge is complemented by a revised aerodynamic setup. The cars will transition from their intermediate track configuration to specifications tailored for short tracks, featuring a reduced underbody, a simplified rear diffuser, and a 3-inch spoiler, down from the previous 4-inch version. These changes are designed to reduce downforce and encourage more independent car control, a hallmark of classic Darlington racing.

Veteran driver Denny Hamlin, a past winner at Darlington, was among the first to articulate the potential impact of these modifications. Following simulator sessions to prepare for the Goodyear 400, Hamlin expressed his expectations of a more unpredictable and demanding race.

"One thing I will tell you is that heads up on Darlington, you want to see some cars out of control here in a few weeks," Hamlin stated earlier this month. "These cars, with essentially little to no underbody because we’re now going to the short track aerodynamic package for Darlington, these cars are out of control."

Hamlin further elaborated on his simulations, predicting significant tire degradation. "I’m predicting four seconds of fall off, it might be more. It’s just the cars with the underbody taken off and that simple diffuser, just even on new tires, just absolutely out of control. So, it’s going to be a wild card race."

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Christopher Bell, another prominent competitor, has echoed Hamlin’s sentiments, indicating that the upcoming race at Darlington will be a departure from recent years with the Next Gen car. "I think Darlington is going to be very, very, very different than what we’ve had in the years past with the Next Gen car so, I’m excited about it," Bell commented. "I think it has potential to look like a much different Darlington race than what we’ve had in the in the last couple of years."

Bell drew parallels to the recent Cup Series race at Phoenix Raceway, which also utilized the 750-horsepower engine. He described that event as a significant improvement in terms of on-track action and passing opportunities. "I just had a ton of fun at Phoenix," Bell said. "I thought Phoenix was night and day different than what we’ve had the last, well, since we’ve started going there, it’s been really hard to pass and this race was the first race. I felt like you could actually make your way through the field if you had a better car. I proved that; Ryan Blaney proved that it seemed like."

He attributed the enhanced racing at Phoenix to the increased horsepower, which he believes made the track surface feel more challenging and led to greater tire wear. "If you had a better car, you were able to pass, and I think a lot of that a lot of that was due to the horsepower and the added horsepower made the track feel slick. The tires degraded. We were sliding around, and the best cars made the way to the front. I think Darlington is going to be more of the same."

Ross Chastain, a driver known for his aggressive style, also expressed his appreciation for Darlington Raceway. While acknowledging that recent Next Gen cars have not exhibited the same level of tire fall-off as older models, he maintains that the track itself is inherently conducive to exciting racing. "I only race the old car one year at (Chip Ganassi Racing) and all my other races there have been with Trackhouse," Chastain stated. "And in all my years racing there, we’re always sliding around. … I don’t think we’ve had bad races at Darlington. Darlington, in my opinion, is the best race track in the world."

The consensus among many drivers is that the combination of Darlington’s notoriously abrasive surface and the new technical package is likely to create a racing environment that closely resembles the classic, challenging races of the past, where tire management and driver skill were paramount.

Brad Keselowski, a seasoned veteran and team owner, has humorously, yet seriously, noted the potential for increased mechanical stress and tire wear. "The biggest thing I’m thinking about at Darlington is to go 50 laps on a set of tires was almost impossible with the NextGen car in the last two or three seasons, and now that we have more horsepower and less aero, I don’t know if we’re gonna be able to go 35 laps," Keselowski explained. "So, keeping up with the tires is going to be a big challenge. The drivers managing it, the teams putting our setups to where it can do it. Darlington is going to be a heavy lift. It’s always a heavy lift, but it’s a heavier lift now, I think, with these circumstances and a lot of unknowns entering the race at Darlington."

Keselowski anticipates a race where tire strategy will be a critical factor, potentially leading to more frequent pit stops and varied race strategies. "It might turn out no different, but I don’t think that will be the case. I think it’s gonna be a really difficult race."

His teammate at RFK Racing, Chris Buescher, anticipates that the new configuration will open up more passing opportunities by allowing drivers greater control over tire degradation. Buescher suggests that a strategic approach to tire management will be key, with drivers potentially choosing to push hard early in a run and accept increased fall-off, or conserve tires for a stronger finish.

"If somebody is going to go be aggressive and really push hard and just wear out tires early, the hope is that you will see them fall off three or four tenths harder over the last 15-20 laps of a run versus somebody that just tries to be more consistent throughout the entire thing," Buescher elaborated. "I would say that if you have two cars that battle it out from the green flag until a green flag cycle, and are both pushing extremely hard, you’re going to see a minimal difference in fall off, which I think is not going to lead to those two cars being able to trade places as easily at the tail end of a run versus somebody that’s not pushing as hard early. That’s my prediction. I don’t know if that’s completely accurate, but, ultimately, we are all going to be grip limited."

While acknowledging that clean air remains advantageous for passing with the Next Gen car, Buescher believes that extreme tire wear could mitigate this advantage. He also pointed to the potential for drivers to utilize the lower, less-used portions of the track, such as the apron in Turns 3 and 4, if they offer additional grip, though he noted this would likely be a temporary tactic rather than a sustainable race strategy.

"You’re just going to be looking for some amount of clean air, some amount of grip on the racetrack," Buescher said. "We’ve seen the bottom, what you would almost call the apron of three and four come in in year’s past. That’s hard on tires, but it is gripped up because it’s not been run in so hard through the years, so is that an option for a couple laps? Probably. Is that somewhere you’re gonna run an entire run? I would say very unlikely, so there are some options at Darlington for sure."

Ultimately, Buescher expressed excitement for the unknown variables this weekend’s race presents. "Like I said at the beginning, I think we have a lot more questions than answers right now, and I’m excited to see how that all plays out," he concluded. "Fortunately, all of our RFK Fords are in group two, so we get to watch that first practice and take notes or point and laugh or whatever it may be that we’re doing, but we will be watching with a sharp eye for sure."

The Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway is scheduled to take the green flag on Sunday, with expectations high for a return to the challenging, attrition-filled racing that has long defined this iconic track. The technical changes implemented by NASCAR appear designed to revive an element of unpredictability and driver skill that many fans and competitors have missed.

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