NASCAR Cup Series Awaits Its Next Inaugural Victor, One Year After Josh Berry’s Breakthrough

Las Vegas Motor Speedway, March 3, 2025 – Exactly one year has passed since Josh Berry, piloting the iconic No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford, surprised the NASCAR Cup Series field and etched his name into history as the 206th different race winner. His victory, achieved after leading just 18 laps in a dramatic finish, marked a significant moment in the sport. However, in the twelve months that have followed, no other driver has managed to replicate that maiden success, creating a curious drought in the annals of first-time Cup Series winners.

This unusual pause contrasts with recent trends. In 2024, Harrison Burton broke through for his first win, and the year prior, Shane van Gisbergen achieved a similar feat. The 2022 season, marked by the introduction of the Next Gen car, was particularly fruitful for new victors, with four drivers—Tyler Reddick, Ross Chastain, Daniel Suárez, and Chase Briscoe (who became the 200th different Cup winner)—all celebrating their maiden victories. The current season, however, stands at a standstill regarding new entrants into the winner’s circle.

With 11 of the 36 full-time drivers still seeking their first Cup Series checkered flag, the question of who will become the 207th is a prominent topic of discussion within the garage and among fans. Several contenders have come agonizingly close, displaying the speed and potential to break through. Their performances and statistical profiles suggest a select group is most poised to achieve this milestone.

Carson Hocevar: A Victory Imminent?

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Among the frontrunners, Carson Hocevar, driving the No. 77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet, stands out. His recent performances have been nothing short of remarkable, signaling that a maiden victory is a matter of when, not if. Hocevar was on the cusp of leading at the white flag of the 2026 Daytona 500 and secured a front-row starting position for the final restart at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The 23-year-old’s commitment to Spire Motorsports, underscored by a contract extension through the 2030s, indicates a singular focus on achieving his first Cup Series win. In the 2025 season alone, Hocevar recorded four top-five finishes, including two second-place results, and has led an impressive 141 laps. His statistical trajectory strongly suggests he is a prime candidate to end the winless streak.

Ty Gibbs: Chasing Elusive First Triumph

Ty Gibbs of Joe Gibbs Racing has also been a consistent front-runner, narrowly missing a victory just days ago at Phoenix Raceway. He held the lead with approximately ten laps remaining before being overtaken by Ryan Blaney. Despite the late-race challenge, Gibbs secured his second consecutive top-five finish, demonstrating his resilience and competitive edge. Statistically, Gibbs holds the distinction of having the most starts for Joe Gibbs Racing without a win. Across 127 Cup Series starts, he has amassed 19 top-five finishes, 35 top-ten finishes, two pole awards, and has led 852 laps. These numbers are unparalleled among winless drivers, highlighting his strong performance metrics. The veteran team is reportedly dedicating significant resources to help Gibbs achieve his first Cup Series victory.

Ryan Preece: Seeking Points-Paying Glory

Ryan Preece, representing RFK Racing, has experienced the taste of victory in a Cup Series event, albeit in an exhibition race. He secured a memorable win in the rain-affected Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium earlier this year. This non-points-paying victory has reportedly fueled Preece’s determination to claim an official Cup Series win. Having already achieved victories at the lower NASCAR national series levels, Preece has reached as high as third place in Cup Series competition. Last season, he was also a strong contender at Talladega Superspeedway, finishing second in a photo finish before a disqualification due to a technical infraction. With 227 Cup Series starts dating back to 2015, Preece is one of the most experienced drivers on the cusp of a win. His 2025 season saw three top-five finishes, and 133 of his 313 career laps led were accumulated in that same year, indicating his continued development and competitiveness.

Connor Zilisch: A Rookie’s Potential

The highly-touted rookie, Connor Zilisch, driving for Trackhouse Racing, has faced an arduous start to his full-time Cup Series campaign, marked by unfortunate incidents and mechanical issues. However, flashes of significant speed have been evident, particularly at Circuit of the Americas (COTA). Had it not been for two spins during restarts, Zilisch might have claimed victory at the road course. With three more road or street course races remaining on the 2026 schedule, these venues could offer him a prime opportunity. This season’s challenges echo his rookie year in the O’Reilly Series, where he overcame a slow start to achieve success. Despite not yet recording a top-ten finish in the Cup Series, Zilisch has only seven starts to his name, leaving ample time for him to navigate the learning curve and overcome his current streak of misfortune.

Zane Smith: A Developing Threat

Zane Smith of Front Row Motorsports has emerged as a surprise contender in the early stages of the 2026 season. He narrowly missed winning the Daytona 500 and secured another strong finish at Atlanta. An incident on the final restart at COTA prevented him from potentially starting the year with three consecutive top-ten results. While Front Row Motorsports’ last Cup Series win dates back to 2023, and Smith’s most statistically probable path to victory lies on drafting-style tracks, his recent performances warrant close attention. Furthermore, Smith has demonstrated versatility, achieving a second-place finish at Nashville in 2024 and an impressive third-place result at Bristol last year. These performances suggest he possesses the capability to contend for a win on various track types.

Other full-time drivers who have yet to secure a Cup Series victory include Noah Gragson, Todd Gilliland, John-Hunter Nemechek, Riley Herbst, Ty Dillon, and Cody Ware. Their continued presence in the series means they also remain potential candidates to join the exclusive club of inaugural winners, though their recent performances may place them further down the immediate pecking order.

The anticipation surrounding the next first-time winner is palpable within the NASCAR community. As the 2026 season progresses, the narratives of these drivers will continue to unfold, each striving to achieve that career-defining moment and add their name to the storied history of the NASCAR Cup Series. The current drought, while statistically unusual, only heightens the drama and excitement as the sport heads towards its next chapter of breakthrough victories.

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