Ali Akbar Rosady
For the first time since Jon Jones’ undisputed heavyweight championship victory over Ciryl Gane in March 2023, the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s premier heavyweight title will be contested without an active interim belt in play. Tom Aspinall, the previously crowned interim champion, has been elevated to undisputed status and is set to make his inaugural defense against Ciryl Gane this Saturday, headlining UFC 321 in Abu Dhabi. This event marks the promotion’s 22nd visit to the capital city of the United Arab Emirates, solidifying its position as a key international fight destination.
The recent instability in the heavyweight division stemmed largely from Jones’ prolonged inactivity and his vocal reluctance to face Aspinall. This period saw the creation of an interim title, which Aspinall secured with a dominant first-round knockout of Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 295 in November 2023. However, the landscape shifted significantly in June when Jones announced he was vacating the undisputed title and briefly retiring from the sport, only to declare his intention to return later in the year, leaving the division open for a new era. As fight night approaches, five prominent storylines are poised to shape the narrative of this highly anticipated card.
1. The Weight of Expectation: Tom Aspinall Under Scrutiny
Tom Aspinall (14-3 MMA, 7-1 UFC), the 31-year-old Englishman, enters his first undisputed title defense carrying considerable pressure. Despite a near-flawless nine-fight tenure in the Octagon, featuring eight stoppage victories and only one loss due to a knee injury against Curtis Blaydes in July 2022 (a setback he effectively avenged by claiming the interim title), key aspects of his game remain untested. Aspinall has never competed beyond the second round in his 18 professional mixed martial arts bouts, leaving questions regarding his stamina over championship distance (five rounds). His ground game, despite holding a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, has rarely been showcased extensively under duress. Furthermore, while possessing undeniable speed and devastating power, Aspinall has occasionally displayed a tendency to keep his chin exposed when backpedaling, a vulnerability that has yet to be exploited by an opponent.
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Jon Jones, during his period of inactivity, frequently made dismissive remarks about Aspinall, questioning his drawing power, his overall fighting ability, and suggesting he might be a "flash in the pan." With Aspinall currently installed as a significant betting favorite, often exceeding 4-to-1 against Gane, a loss of any kind could inadvertently lend credence to Jones’ previous statements. For Aspinall, this contest against Gane is an opportunity to emphatically prove his legitimacy as a long-term divisional kingpin and demonstrate that Jones had valid reasons to avoid risking his near-perfect professional record against such a dynamic and explosive talent who appears to represent the future of the heavyweight division.
2. Ciryl Gane’s Championship Imperative: A "Now or Never" Moment
At 34 years old, Ciryl Gane (12-3 MMA, 9-3 UFC) faces what many consider to be his final opportunity to capture undisputed heavyweight gold. The 6-foot-5 Frenchman burst onto the UFC scene in 2019, just a year after transitioning from a successful Muay Thai career, quickly establishing himself as a prototype for the modern heavyweight with his exceptional athleticism and striking prowess. He achieved interim heavyweight champion status by stopping Derrick Lewis in August 2021, improving his professional record to an unblemished 10-0.
However, the subsequent period has seen Gane’s trajectory seemingly stall. His ground game, once considered a minor concern, was decisively exposed in two high-stakes title fights. He suffered a unanimous decision loss to Francis Ngannou at UFC 270 in January 2022, where Ngannou, fighting with a compromised knee, surprised many by employing a wrestling-heavy strategy. This was followed by a swift first-round submission loss to Jon Jones at UFC 285 in March 2023, a fight that lasted a mere 2 minutes and 4 seconds. In between these title bids, Gane endured several challenging moments, notably being visibly hurt multiple times during his third-round knockout victory over Tai Tuivasa at UFC Paris in September 2022, showcasing a susceptibility to power shots. While he appeared to rebound with a dominant TKO win over a streaking Serghei Spivac in September 2023, Gane is acutely aware that a third unsuccessful bid for the undisputed crown could permanently relegate him from the championship conversation. His primary objective against Aspinall will be to negate the Englishman’s early aggression, drag the fight into later rounds, and demonstrate significant improvements in his defensive grappling and overall resilience.
3. Zhang Weili’s Departure Reshapes Women’s Strawweight: Jandiroba vs. Dern II
The women’s strawweight division is currently in a state of flux following the departure of its reigning two-time champion, Zhang Weili. The 34-year-old Chinese star recently vacated her 115-pound title to pursue a historic superfight at flyweight, challenging pound-for-pound queen Valentina Shevchenko in the co-main event of UFC 322 scheduled for November. Zhang’s exit, at a time when the strawweight division is perceived by some as lacking the star-powered depth it once commanded, has created a significant opportunity for contenders to ascend.
This weekend’s co-main event features a compelling rematch for the vacant title between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern, who previously met in December 2020. Virna Jandiroba (19-3 MMA, 9-3 UFC), a 36-year-old Brazilian and former Invicta FC champion, has experienced a career resurgence. After losing three of her first six UFC bouts following her 2019 debut, she has strung together an impressive five-fight win streak, showcasing a highly technical grappling game. Her recent victories include notable names such as Yan Xiaonan, Amanda Lemos, Loopy Godinez, and Marina Rodriguez.
Mackenzie Dern (13-4 MMA, 8-4 UFC), 31, also from Brazil, has followed a different path. Upon her 2018 UFC debut, she was widely touted as a future star with immense marketing potential due to her elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree. While she enters this rematch on a two-fight win streak, her recent record of 3-4 in her last seven outings indicates a period of inconsistency, with losses to top contenders like Marina Rodriguez and Yan Xiaonan. To fulfill her early potential and capture the undisputed title, Dern will need to demonstrate improved striking technique and more consistent game planning against a former foe who has consistently evolved her skill set since their first encounter, which Dern won by unanimous decision.
4. The Bantamweight Contender Clash: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista
A pivotal bantamweight clash sees Umar Nurmagomedov take on Mario Bautista, with significant implications for the division’s title picture. The question surrounding Umar Nurmagomedov (17-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC), cousin of UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov, centers on his ability to overcome Merab Dvalishvili, who handed him his sole professional loss. That unanimous decision defeat occurred at UFC 306 in September 2024, in a highly anticipated contender’s bout, not a title fight, as the bantamweight championship is currently held by Sean O’Malley. Dvalishvili, the #1 ranked contender, is scheduled for a future bout against former champion Petr Yan, not a title defense.
Nurmagomedov’s loss to Dvalishvili was notably contentious; he revealed he broke his right hand in the first round and maintains he did enough to win despite scorecards of 48-47 (twice) and 49-46. "The Machine" Dvalishvili is renowned for his relentless pace and suffocating wrestling, presenting few exploitable weaknesses. Nurmagomedov, with his perfectly well-rounded game and a proven ability to threaten takedowns, is considered one of the few fighters capable of matching Dvalishvili’s skillset. His primary identified deficit in their previous encounter was a perceived gas tank disparity, an area he has reportedly focused on adjusting. He is installed as a substantial betting favorite, as high as 6-to-1, to snap Mario Bautista’s impressive eight-fight win streak. Mario Bautista (14-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC) has quietly become a formidable force in the division, showcasing improved striking and submission skills during his unbeaten run. The victor of this bout is expected to position themselves for a shot at the bantamweight title, either against the reigning champion O’Malley or the winner of the forthcoming Dvalishvili-Yan contest.
5. Alexander Volkov’s "Gift" is a Heavyweight Gauntlet Against Jailton Almeida
Alexander Volkov (38-11 MMA, 12-5 UFC), the towering Russian heavyweight and former Bellator MMA champion, is currently on a three-fight win streak, most recently defeating Tai Tuivasa via submission in September 2023. His last loss was to Tom Aspinall in March 2022. The narrative presented in the original text regarding a "five-fight win streak snapped in December when Gane took home a split-decision that almost no one agreed with" is factually inaccurate, as Volkov fought Gane once in June 2021, losing via unanimous decision, and did not compete against Gane in December of any recent year.
Despite the factual discrepancies in the preceding narrative, UFC CEO Dana White has historically expressed support for Volkov after contentious decisions, such as his 2018 knockout loss to Derrick Lewis in a fight he was dominating. This perceived goodwill appears to have manifested in a key contender’s bout against the highly dangerous Brazilian ground specialist, Jailton Almeida. Almeida (20-3 MMA, 8-1 UFC) boasts an impressive 8-1 record in the UFC, with seven of those victories coming by finish, including four via submission. He enters the contest as a slight betting favorite, largely due to Volkov’s often inconsistent takedown defense throughout his career.
For the 36-year-old Volkov, a victory over Almeida would be monumental. It would likely propel him into a long-sought-after UFC title shot, an accolade that has remained elusive despite his consistent presence among the division’s elite. However, this path is not without potential obstacles, as a returning Jon Jones or a rising light heavyweight contender like Alex Pereira, who has expressed interest in moving to heavyweight, could potentially bypass him in the title queue. This matchup presents a classic striker-versus-grappler dynamic, with Volkov’s long-range striking and power clashing against Almeida’s suffocating pressure and submission prowess.
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