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In an era characterized by instant analysis and rapid-fire narratives, a deeper examination of the 2025 MotoGP season reveals that claims of Aprilia posing a significant threat to Ducati’s established supremacy may be premature. While Aprilia has undoubtedly made strides, a comprehensive look at the data suggests that Ducati’s perceived stagnation is more of a statistical illusion than a tangible decline in performance.
Ducati’s 2024 season set an exceptionally high benchmark, with the Italian manufacturer achieving unprecedented levels of dominance. The team secured 19 victories out of a possible 20 races, representing a 95% win rate. Furthermore, Ducati riders claimed 53 podium finishes out of 60 opportunities, an impressive 88.3% success rate. The season also saw Ducati riders achieve a clean sweep of the podium in 14 Grand Prix events. In total, Ducati amassed 722 points out of a maximum of 740, demonstrating a remarkable 98% point-scoring efficiency.
The 2025 season, while not quite reaching the heights of its predecessor, still represents a strong performance for Ducati. The team secured 17 wins out of 22 races, a 77.3% win rate, achieved by four different riders. Ducati riders also claimed 44 podium finishes out of 66 opportunities, a 66.6% success rate, with seven Grand Prix events featuring a Ducati rider on all three steps of the podium. In total, Ducati accumulated 768 points out of a possible 814, translating to a 94% point-scoring efficiency.
While the raw numbers indicate a slight dip compared to the extraordinary 2024 season, it is crucial to consider the factors that contributed to this marginal regression. Notably, Ducati reduced its presence on the grid from eight bikes to six. Additionally, the injury sustained by Marc Marquez at the Indonesian Grand Prix had a significant impact on the team’s performance. Marquez, who had been a key rider for Ducati, missed the final four races of the season due to complications from his injury. Coincidentally, three of Aprilia’s four wins in 2025 occurred during Marquez’s absence, at the Australian, Portuguese, and Valencian Grand Prix.
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Prior to the Australian Grand Prix, the first race Marquez missed, Ducati had dominated the season, winning 16 of the 18 races held. The only exceptions were the British Grand Prix at Silverstone, where Marco Bezzecchi secured victory after Fabio Quartararo’s Yamaha engine failed, and the French Grand Prix at Le Mans, where Johann Zarco capitalized on wet conditions to claim an unexpected win for Honda.
Another significant factor affecting Ducati’s performance was the departure of Pramac Racing, which switched to become Yamaha’s satellite team. This move reduced Ducati’s presence on the grid by two bikes, representing a 25% reduction in firepower. Pramac Racing had been a strong contributor to Ducati’s success in previous seasons, with Jorge Martin winning the 2024 World Championship, contributing three wins and 16 podiums.
Aprilia, on the other hand, demonstrated notable improvement in 2025. The team increased its win tally from one in 2024 (Maverick Vinales in Austin) to four in 2025, with three wins from Marco Bezzecchi and one from Raul Fernandez (Australia). In 2024, Aprilia had only secured one podium finish, while in 2025, the team achieved 11 podium finishes. Aprilia’s point tally increased from 302 in 2024 (41% of the total available) to 418 in 2025 (51.4%), representing a 10-percentage point increase.
Aprilia’s improvement marks the second-largest gain among manufacturers, surpassed only by Honda. However, despite these advancements, even Marco Bezzecchi remains cautious about considering Aprilia a genuine threat to Ducati’s dominance.
"We would like to be rivals of Ducati, but every year is a new story and nothing can be taken for granted," Bezzecchi said in Valencia, prior to securing his third win of the season. "We must keep this mentality of focusing on our work. Ducati will start as the favourite. Marc won the title with five races to spare, so two victories are not enough for me to consider myself at his level."
Jorge Martin, who has transitioned to Aprilia, also acknowledged the adjustments he needs to make, indicating that he still feels like a "rookie" at times on Aprilia’s MotoGP bike. This underscores the challenges involved in adapting to a new machine and the complexities of competing at the highest level of MotoGP.
Ducati’s ongoing development efforts are also worth noting. At the Valencia test, Ducati introduced a more extreme fairing solution, demonstrating the team’s commitment to innovation and performance enhancement. These technological advancements further solidify Ducati’s position at the forefront of MotoGP development.
The statistical data, contextual factors, and expert opinions suggest that while Aprilia has made significant progress, claims of the team posing an immediate threat to Ducati’s MotoGP dominance are likely overstated. Ducati’s slight statistical regression in 2025 can be attributed to factors such as a reduction in the number of bikes on the grid and the injury sustained by Marc Marquez. Furthermore, Ducati’s ongoing technological advancements and the cautionary statements from Aprilia riders indicate that Ducati remains the team to beat in MotoGP. While Aprilia’s improvement is commendable, it is unlikely to unseat Ducati’s established supremacy in the foreseeable future.
The upcoming season will be crucial in determining whether Aprilia can continue its upward trajectory and mount a more credible challenge to Ducati’s dominance. However, based on the available data and expert analysis, Ducati is expected to remain the frontrunner in MotoGP, with Aprilia still needing to overcome significant hurdles to truly compete for the championship.
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