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As the roar of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season fades and the focus shifts towards the upcoming 2025 campaign, oddsmakers are already casting a speculative eye toward the 2026 championship battle. BetMGM, a prominent sports betting platform, has released its initial futures odds for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series title, highlighting perennial contenders and emerging talents, even as the sport’s final format for that season remains undetermined.
The uncertainty surrounding the exact championship format for 2026 does not appear to deter the early market. Whether NASCAR opts for an elimination-style playoff with an expanded final round, a ten-race playoff structure, or a return to a season-long points system, certain drivers consistently emerge as favorites in the eyes of bettors and analysts.
Leading the pack at +500 odds are Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin. Larson, fresh off his second Cup Series championship in 2024, has solidified his status as one of the premier drivers in the modern era. His remarkable consistency and adaptability across various track types make him a formidable contender year after year. Hamlin, a veteran driver with a deep understanding of championship-level racing, is also positioned as a top favorite, underscoring his continued presence at the front of the field and his persistent pursuit of a maiden Cup Series title. His 2025 runner-up finish, as referenced by BetMGM’s odds, indicates his sustained competitiveness.
Following closely behind are the other two drivers who comprised the 2024 Championship 4. William Byron, a consistent performer in recent seasons, is listed at +600. Byron has demonstrated significant growth and maturity, often finding himself in contention for victories and playoff berths. Chase Briscoe, completing the Championship 4 alongside Larson and Byron, is priced at +1000. Briscoe has shown flashes of championship potential, and his odds reflect a belief in his ability to contend for the ultimate prize.
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A notable inclusion among the early favorites is 19-year-old phenom Connor Zilisch, who is slated to embark on his first full-time Cup Series season in 2026 with Trackhouse Racing. Zilisch’s +1000 odds, placing him on par with Briscoe and ahead of established teammate Ross Chastain (+2500), signal a significant level of market anticipation for his potential. Zilisch has garnered attention through strong performances in lower series and select Cup Series starts, leading to high expectations for his transition to full-time competition.
Veteran Joey Logano, a three-time Cup Series champion, sits at +1600. Logano’s championship pedigree is undeniable, having secured titles in 2018, 2022, and 2024. His success in even-numbered years has become a notable trend, and bettors are evidently factoring this statistical anomaly into their projections for 2026. Logano, driving for Team Penske, remains a significant threat in any championship format.
Further down the odds board, Carson Hocevar, a rising star for Spire Motorsports, is listed at +3000. His odds place him ahead of notable drivers such as Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Ty Gibbs, and RFK Racing’s Chris Buescher. Hocevar’s impressive performances in his limited Cup Series experience have clearly caught the attention of oddsmakers, suggesting a belief in his potential to upset more established competitors.
Two former Cup Series champions, Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski, are both listed at +5000. For both highly experienced drivers, achieving odds of +5000 indicates that a return to championship contention in 2026 would represent a substantial improvement over their recent performances. Both drivers possess the talent and championship experience to be factors, but their current market position suggests a need for significant resurgences to reach the pinnacle of the sport once again.
At the longer odds, 2025 Rookie of the Year contender Shane van Gisbergen is priced at +25000. He is among a group of 13 drivers who share the lowest odds to win the Bill France Cup in 2026. Van Gisbergen, a highly accomplished road racer from New Zealand, has shown promise in his limited Cup Series starts, particularly on road courses. His odds reflect the considerable challenge of translating that success into a full-season championship bid, especially on ovals.
The release of these early betting odds, while speculative, offers a glimpse into the current perception of driver strength and potential heading into the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season. These figures will undoubtedly evolve as the 2025 season unfolds, with driver performances, team developments, and potential rule changes all playing a significant role in shaping the championship narrative. For now, the market suggests a strong endorsement for established stars like Larson and Hamlin, while also acknowledging the rising potential of younger talents like Zilisch and Hocevar. The narratives of veteran champions like Logano, Busch, and Keselowski are also being assessed through the lens of their recent form and historical tendencies. The ongoing evolution of NASCAR’s playoff format and the competitive landscape within the teams will be crucial factors in determining how these early predictions ultimately materialize.
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