Ali Akbar Rosady
Week 12 of the college football season proved to be a pivotal and exceptionally entertaining period, characterized by significant playoff implications, dramatic upsets, and thrilling finishes across all divisions. Top-ranked teams faced stern tests, with No. 4 Alabama suffering a surprising home defeat and other College Football Playoff (CFP) contenders, including No. 3 Texas A&M, No. 16 Georgia Tech, No. 17 USC, and No. 18 Michigan, narrowly escaping potential disasters. Beyond the high-stakes matchups, the weekend featured an array of high-quality football, from midweek MACtion spectacles and Friday night ACC thrillers to nail-biting noon and 3:30 p.m. ET contests. Notable individual performances included Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy with 300 rushing yards and three touchdowns, and Ole Miss’ Kewan Lacy contributing 224 rushing yards and three scores. Smaller-school ranks also contributed to the excitement with numerous overtimes, comebacks, and last-minute playoff berths.
Top-Tier Drama and Playoff Repercussions
The most significant event of Week 12 unfolded in Tuscaloosa, where No. 4 Alabama fell to No. 11 Oklahoma with a final score of 23-21. The defeat marked a considerable upset, particularly given Alabama’s statistical dominance. Postgame win expectancy (PGWE), a metric assessing the likelihood of victory based on predictive stats, indicated Alabama should have won 95.2% of the time. The Crimson Tide showcased a substantial success rate advantage (46.7% to 27.5%), fewer negative plays, and more goal-to-go situations despite a significant field position disadvantage. Oklahoma’s victory was propelled by crucial defensive plays, notably an 87-yard Eli Bowen pick-six, and timely special teams contributions, including a 42-yard Isaiah Sategna III punt return and a tipped field goal. This outcome, coupled with Georgia’s comfortable win over Texas, impacted Alabama’s SEC title odds, which now stand at 30.0% according to SP+, trailing Georgia (33.0%) and Texas A&M (31.5%). The loss also shifted Alabama from CFP Tier 2 to Tier 3, with their playoff odds at 58.6%. Oklahoma’s playoff chances improved to 41.7%, joining Alabama in Tier 3 alongside BYU (50.2%), Virginia (41.7%), and Georgia Tech (36.6%).
Earlier in the day, No. 3 Texas A&M mounted a historic comeback against South Carolina, winning 31-30 after trailing 30-3 at halftime. The Aggies’ first half, marked by quarterback Marcel Reed’s struggles (6-of-19 passing, two interceptions, two sacks), saw them facing what could have been the worst home loss for a top-three team against an unranked opponent in recent history. However, Texas A&M dominated the second half 28-0. Key second-half statistics highlighted their resurgence: 371 total yards (9.8 per play) compared to South Carolina’s 76 yards (2.9 per play), and a 65.8% success rate against South Carolina’s 23.1%. Marcel Reed rebounded dramatically, completing 16-of-20 passes for 298 yards and three touchdowns. Despite a fumbled trick play near the goal line that could have extended their lead, the Aggies secured the win after South Carolina’s final drive stalled due to two sacks on quarterback LaNorris Sellers. This critical victory solidified Texas A&M’s position in CFP Tier 1 with a 99.9% playoff chance, alongside Ohio State and Indiana.
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The ACC race also saw significant movement. No. 16 Georgia Tech narrowly avoided an upset, defeating Boston College 36-34. Despite an outstanding performance from Tech’s Haynes King, who threw for 371 yards and a touchdown while adding 61 non-sack rushing yards, the Yellow Jackets trailed 28-17 entering the fourth quarter. Jordan Allen’s 54-yard score and Aidan Birr’s late chip-shot field goal secured the victory after Boston College missed a crucial two-point conversion. Virginia, following a 34-17 win over Duke, currently holds the best ACC title odds at 41.3%, followed by Georgia Tech at 27.1%. Virginia can clinch an ACC Championship Game berth with a win over Virginia Tech in two weeks, while Georgia Tech faces a challenging matchup against Pitt.
No. 18 Michigan also secured a late comeback win, defeating Northwestern 24-22. After taking a 21-9 lead in the third quarter, Michigan’s offense stalled, allowing Northwestern to take a sudden lead following a Preston Stone touchdown and a Braden Turner interception return. However, Bryce Underwood led a final drive, setting up Dominic Zvada’s 31-yard field goal at the buzzer. Michigan remains in CFP Tier 4 with 7.6% odds, facing the daunting prospect of needing to defeat Ohio State to reach the playoff. Other teams in Tier 4 include Utah (29.9%), USC (17.8%), Miami (15.5%), Vanderbilt (13.8%), and SMU (10.0%).
Midweek MACtion and Small-School Thrillers
The Mid-American Conference (MAC) provided high-octane drama. Kent State defeated Akron 42-35 in overtime in an "all-timer" for the Wagon Wheel trophy. Kent State held a 35-17 lead in the fourth quarter, fueled by four Dru DeShields touchdown passes, including an 89-yarder to Da’Realyst Clark. Akron, however, mounted a furious comeback, scoring, recovering an onside kick, kicking a field goal, recovering a fumble, and tying the game with a 13-yard Ben Finley-to-Israel Polk touchdown and two-point conversion. DeShields ultimately secured the win with a 25-yard touchdown pass to Ardell Banks on the first play of overtime. This victory remarkably kept Kent State’s bowl hopes alive after an 0-12 season in 2024. In another critical MACtion contest, Western Michigan defeated Ohio 17-13, with every score shifting the lead. Jalen Buckley’s touchdown in the fourth quarter, following a 71-yard reception by Tailique Williams, gave WMU a 17-13 lead, placing them in sole possession of first place in the MAC.
Across other divisions, dramatic finishes were commonplace. In FCS action, No. 11 Harvard secured a share of the Ivy League title with a 45-43 victory over Penn. The unbeaten Crimson trailed 27-14 but rallied, with Kieran Corr hitting a 53-yard field goal at the buzzer after Jaden Craig completed three passes in 22 seconds. Harvard remains a top contender in the FCS SP+ rankings, sitting at No. 3. In a five-overtime marathon, No. 22 South Dakota defeated No. 23 Southern Illinois 53-51, with Larenzo Fenner’s two-point conversion in the fifth overtime sealing the win and improving South Dakota’s record to 8-4.
Division II football also delivered. Lenoir-Rhyne triumphed over Catawba 48-46 in Hickory, North Carolina, blowing a 42-12 lead before Khamoni Robinson scored the game-winning touchdown with six seconds left. Tiffin secured a 23-21 victory over No. 8 Findlay with a 13-yard game-winning touchdown pass from Alex Johnson to Jaedyn McKinstry on the final play. West Liberty defeated Wheeling 68-67 in an offensive shootout that began with a 100-yard kick return, while West Texas A&M completed a 21-point comeback to beat Angelo State 45-44 with six seconds remaining. In Division III, Merchant Marine defeated Coast Guard 39-38 in the Secretaries’ Cup at Fenway Park, highlighted by Bubba Mustain’s 274 rushing yards, three touchdowns, 150 passing yards, and two more scores. No. 25 Franklin & Marshall secured their first-ever Division III playoff berth with a 29-28 overtime victory over No. 3 Johns Hopkins, overcoming a 21-point deficit.
SP+ Analysis and Heisman Watch
The SP+ rankings updated this week revealed significant shifts in team ratings. Texas Tech saw the largest gain among top teams, rising 3.6 points to third overall after a dominant performance against UCF. The Red Raiders posted 8.6 yards per play and a 68.3% success rate, indicating a comprehensive victory. Conversely, NC State experienced a notable drop, falling 3.0 points from 57th to 68th after a 41-7 loss to Miami, largely due to quarterback CJ Bailey’s struggles and the defense’s performance.
In the weekly Heisman watch, Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy earned 10 points for his 300-yard, three-touchdown performance against Mississippi State, marking a resurgence after an October slump. Ole Miss’ Kewan Lacy, Hardy’s former teammate, followed with 224 rushing yards and three touchdowns against Florida. Other top performers included Oregon’s Dante Moore (306 passing yards, 2 TDs), Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza (299 passing yards, 4 TDs), Georgia’s Gunner Stockton (229 passing yards, 4 TDs, 33 rushing yards, 1 TD), and Georgia Tech’s Haynes King (371 passing yards, 1 TD, 61 rushing yards). Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed also made the list for his second-half heroics.
Through 12 weeks, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin leads the season Heisman points race with 29 points, tied with Alabama’s Ty Simpson. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is close behind with 26 points. The ongoing Heisman race is anticipated to culminate in the Big Ten Championship Game, featuring Sayin and Mendoza, which could be a decisive factor in awarding the trophy.
Upcoming Midweek Fixtures
As the regular season draws to a close, midweek action continues to hold significance. Wednesday’s MACtion slate includes Miami (Ohio) at Buffalo, a crucial matchup for two teams tied with two conference losses. Another notable contest, Central Michigan at Kent State, offers Kent State a slim chance to achieve bowl eligibility. These games underscore the continued importance of every contest as teams vie for conference titles and postseason berths.
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