Ali Akbar Rosady
UFC 322 is poised to deliver an evening of high-stakes mixed martial arts action from Madison Square Garden in New York on Saturday, November 15. The event features a lineup of elite talent, highlighted by two pivotal championship contests and several matchups with significant divisional implications. While the pre-fight rhetoric may not always be the most bombastic, the caliber of in-cage ability on display, particularly from headliners Jack Della Maddalena, Islam Makhachev, Valentina Shevchenko, and Zhang Weili, promises a memorable night for fight fans. Each of these four athletes is vying for a crucial slice of history, underpinning the importance of their respective performances.
The main event features a highly anticipated welterweight title defense as Jack Della Maddalena (1, P4P-8) steps into the octagon against the formidable Islam Makhachev (P4P-1). Della Maddalena, making his first defense of the welterweight championship, aims to solidify his reign and potentially initiate what analysts suggest could be a legendary tenure at the division’s pinnacle. His opponent, Islam Makhachev, widely recognized as MMA’s No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter and the reigning lightweight king, seeks to achieve rare "champ-champ" status. Securing a second title would undoubtedly bolster Makhachev’s already impressive credentials among the sport’s all-time greats.
Della Maddalena enters the bout on an exceptional 18-fight winning streak, a run that includes a thrilling championship victory over Belal Muhammad. Despite this impressive record, some observers suggest that Della Maddalena’s capabilities might be underestimated against an opponent of Makhachev’s stature. Makhachev, too, is on an absurdly dominant run, characterized by his unparalleled grappling prowess. His wrestling game is a cornerstone of his success, consistently allowing him to control opponents on the canvas, bank rounds, or secure finishes. Beyond his grappling, Makhachev’s striking, though often overshadowed, has proven effective, notably out-striking Alexander Volkanovski in two highly contested encounters. The main event is projected to be a back-and-forth war of attrition, with a decisive finish unlikely. Expert analysis suggests that the outcome may hinge on which fighter can generate the most significant bursts of offense. Della Maddalena’s perceived advantage in striking power could allow him to land critical shots, potentially forcing Makhachev to retreat or securing brief knockdowns, which might sway judges in an exceedingly close contest. Success for Della Maddalena will also require effective takedown defense and winning crucial scrambles. The consensus among some analysts favors Della Maddalena to retain his title via decision.
In the co-main event, a superfight that has been years in the making will unfold as Valentina Shevchenko (1, P4P-2) faces Zhang Weili (P4P-1). This bout is widely regarded as the highest-level mixed martial arts contest between two women in history. Shevchenko, deep into her championship narrative, boasts an extraordinary record of seven title defenses during her initial reign as flyweight queen and an additional defense in her second tenure. Seeking a fresh challenge, she finally secured a matchup with Zhang Weili, the two-time strawweight champion who currently holds the No. 1 position on the women’s pound-for-pound rankings.
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The stylistic matchup between Shevchenko and Zhang presents a fascinating challenge, with virtually no discernible weaknesses in either fighter’s game. Both women grade as A-plus in striking, grappling, wrestling, and defense, indicating a contest of razor-thin margins. While Shevchenko might possess a slight edge in strength and Zhang in speed, these differences are minimal. Spectators can anticipate a technical showcase, with Shevchenko likely aiming to establish range and test her ability to tie up and outmuscle Zhang. Conversely, Zhang will be scouting for openings to land power punches and establish her own wrestling game. The full spectrum of their technical abilities is expected to be on display, which could include moments of subtle feints and exhausting grappling exchanges against the fence. Despite the immense challenge, Shevchenko is projected by some experts to retain her title. The rationale often cites Shevchenko’s demonstrated knack for winning close rounds that may be light on overall volume, a trait less consistently observed in Zhang’s championship bouts. This contest is also widely favored to go the distance, with the victor securing a convincing, though potentially not definitive, decision.
Further down the main card, a compelling welterweight clash pits Sean Brady (4) against Michael Morales (T8). Both fighters are considered future title contenders in the division. Morales, an Ecuadorian prospect, possesses high-level athleticism, potent striking, and sufficient wrestling to maintain stand-up exchanges against many opponents. However, Brady’s established strength lies in his practical application of wrestling within an MMA context, a skill often lacking even in highly credentialed grapplers. Brady has also diligently rounded out his game, making him a formidable opponent. While Morales presents a significant threat, some analysts believe he may lack the experience necessary to fully stifle Brady’s wrestling-centric attack at this stage of his career. The projection leans towards Brady securing a victory, potentially via decision or a late ground-and-pound finish. This contest is also viewed as a crucial learning experience for Morales, similar to Brady’s own development following his loss to Belal Muhammad.
Another welterweight bout features Leon Edwards (5) facing Carlos Prates (10). Edwards enters this fight following back-to-back losses to Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady, raising questions about his career trajectory and standing within the championship picture. Prates, a "smoking striker" known for his electrifying finishes, aims to capitalize on Edwards’ recent struggles and vault himself into title contention, seeking to rebound from his own recent loss to Ian Machado Garry. Prates is expected to aggressively pursue a knockout victory. Despite his recent setbacks, Edwards’ standup remains sharp, suggesting he will not shy away from a striking battle with Prates. Some analysts believe that a matchup against a striker like Prates, rather than another wrestler, might favor Edwards, allowing him to demonstrate his offensive capabilities if he can overcome the mental hurdles of his previous performances. The consensus anticipates a decision victory for Edwards.
Rounding out the main card, a lightweight battle pits Beneil Dariush (8) against Benoit Saint Denis (14). This fight presents a classic veteran-versus-rising-contender dynamic. Saint Denis, with his "berserker style," appears to have resolved issues from his disappointing 2024 campaign and is expected to return to his full-force approach. Dariush, a 16-year veteran, has faced the elite of the 155-pound division and possesses a recent victory over Renato Moicano, who previously defeated Saint Denis. While Dariush has shown resilience in the past, his ability to consistently bounce back has become less predictable as his fight time accumulates. Concerns regarding Dariush missing weight for this contest further tilt expert projections towards Saint Denis. The expectation is that Saint Denis’s relentless pressure will overwhelm Dariush, potentially leading to an early finish.
The preliminary card for UFC 322 also features a host of engaging matchups:
- Bo Nickal is projected to defeat Rodolfo Vieira.
- Gregory Rodrigues is favored over Roman Kopylov.
- Erin Blanchfield (4, P4P-9) is expected to secure a victory against Tracy Cortez (12).
- Malcolm Wellmaker is projected to defeat Ethyn Ewing.
- Kyle Daukaus is favored over Gerald Meerschaert.
- Chepe Mariscal is expected to defeat Pat Sabatini.
- Angela Hill (T12) is projected to secure a victory against Fatima Kline.
- Baisangur Susurkaev is favored over Eric McConico.
- Matheus Camilo is expected to defeat Viacheslav Borshchev.
UFC 322 will broadcast from Madison Square Garden in New York. The five-fight early preliminary card commences at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, Disney+, and FX. This is followed by a four-fight preliminary card airing on ESPNEWS, ESPN+, Disney+, and FX at 8 p.m. ET. The highly anticipated five-fight main card will begin at 10 p.m. ET, exclusively available on ESPN+ pay-per-view. All rankings referenced reflect the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings at the time of publication.
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