UFC 321: Heavyweight Crown on the Line as Aspinall Meets Gane in Abu Dhabi

For the first time since March 2023, the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heavyweight division will see its undisputed champion defend the lineal title without an active interim belt in circulation. Tom Aspinall, the former interim titleholder, elevated to full champion status earlier this year, is set to make his inaugural defense against Ciryl Gane in the main event of UFC 321 this Saturday in Abu Dhabi. The path to this unified championship bout has been shaped by the prolonged absence and recent activities of former champion Jon Jones, whose combination of inactivity and a stated unwillingness to face Aspinall previously led to the creation of an interim title. Jones, who vacated the title in June, briefly announced retirement before signaling his intent to return to competition later this year, leaving the heavyweight division to forge a new era. As the promotion makes its 22nd visit to the capital of the United Arab Emirates, five critical storylines command attention on a card packed with significant matchups and championship implications.

1. The Weight of Expectation on Tom Aspinall’s Shoulders

Tom Aspinall (14-3, 11 KOs, 3 Submissions) enters UFC 321 carrying the full weight of the heavyweight championship for the first time, facing intense scrutiny regarding his readiness for a sustained reign. Despite an impressive professional record marked by eight stoppage victories in his nine UFC appearances, questions persist regarding the 32-year-old Englishman’s capabilities beyond the early rounds. Aspinall has never competed past the second round in his 18 professional fights, including his UFC tenure, leaving his championship-round endurance untested. His ground game, while theoretically strong due to his BJJ black belt, remains largely unseen under prolonged pressure. Concerns have also been raised regarding his chin and defensive habits, particularly a tendency to keep his chin exposed while backpedaling, although he has yet to be decisively penalized for it.

Former champion Jon Jones, in justifying his past avoidance of Aspinall, had publicly questioned Aspinall’s marketability, fighting acumen, and long-term potential, suggesting he might be a "flash-in-the-pan." Aspinall, who is currently installed as more than a 4-to-1 betting favorite against Gane, faces a crucial test. A decisive victory would not only validate his status as the undisputed champion but also serve as a definitive retort to Jones’s dismissive remarks, firmly establishing Aspinall as the division’s legitimate future and a risk worth avoiding for any legacy-conscious fighter. Conversely, a loss, particularly one exposing his perceived weaknesses, could inadvertently lend credence to Jones’s previous statements, complicating Aspinall’s claim to the top of the heavyweight hierarchy.

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2. Ciryl Gane’s Critical Juncture for Championship Redemption

For Ciryl Gane (12-2, 5 KOs, 3 Submissions), UFC 321 represents what many observers consider his final realistic opportunity to capture the undisputed heavyweight championship. The 35-year-old Frenchman burst onto the UFC scene in 2019, showcasing an unparalleled blend of agility, striking technique, and athleticism for a heavyweight. His early career saw him amass a perfect 10-0 record, culminating in an interim heavyweight title victory over Derrick Lewis in August 2021. However, the subsequent years have presented a narrative of arrested development, particularly concerning his grappling defense.

Gane’s vulnerabilities on the ground were starkly exposed in two prior title attempts. His undisputed title challenge against Francis Ngannou in January 2022 resulted in a unanimous decision loss, a fight where Ngannou, fighting with a compromised knee, managed to control Gane with wrestling. The subsequent undisputed title bout against Jon Jones in March 2023 was even more decisive, with Gane succumbing to a guillotine choke just 2 minutes and 4 seconds into the first round. While Gane rebounded with a dominant TKO victory over Serghei Spivac in September 2023, he also endured visibly tough moments during his September 2022 TKO win over Tai Tuivasa. Gane’s path to this third title shot underscores the need for a significant evolution in his defensive grappling and a demonstration of mental fortitude in deep waters. Against Aspinall, Gane must prove he has addressed his glaring weaknesses, particularly his susceptibility to high-level grapplers, if he is to finally secure the coveted undisputed crown.

3. The Scramble for the Vacant Women’s Strawweight Title

The women’s strawweight division finds itself in a transitional phase following the departure of its dominant two-time champion, Zhang Weili. The 36-year-old Chinese superstar recently vacated her 115-pound title to pursue a historic superfight against flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko, scheduled as the co-main event for UFC 322 in November. This unprecedented move, aiming for a two-division champion status, has created a significant void in a strawweight division that currently lacks the marquee depth it once commanded.

Into this void step Virna Jandiroba (20-3, 1 KO, 13 Submissions) and Mackenzie Dern (13-4, 7 Submissions), who will contest the vacant championship in the co-main event of UFC 321. This bout marks a highly anticipated rematch of their October 2020 encounter, which Dern won by unanimous decision. Jandiroba, a 37-year-old former Invicta FC champion, has experienced a late-career resurgence in the UFC, boasting an impressive five-fight win streak that includes victories over top contenders such as Loopy Godinez, Amanda Lemos, Marina Rodriguez, Yan Xiaonan, and Angela Hill. Known for her soft-spoken demeanor outside the cage, Jandiroba’s technical grappling and relentless pressure have made her a formidable force.

Mackenzie Dern, 32, once hailed as a future star with immense marketing potential due to her elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree, has had a more inconsistent path since her 2018 UFC debut. While she enters this bout on a two-fight win streak, her record stands at 3-4 in her last seven outings, including losses to top contenders like Yan Xiaonan and Jessica Andrade. To fulfill her potential and capture the undisputed title, Dern must demonstrate significant improvements in her striking technique and game planning against a former foe who has consistently evolved her overall mixed martial arts skillset since their initial meeting. The winner will inherit a division ripe for a new era of championship dominance.

4. Umar Nurmagomedov’s Quest for Bantamweight Contention

The bantamweight division, widely regarded as one of the UFC’s deepest and most competitive, sees Umar Nurmagomedov (17-1, 5 KOs, 7 Submissions) return to action with aspirations of challenging the dominant champion, Merab Dvalishvili. Nurmagomedov, a cousin of UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov, suffered his sole professional loss in January, a unanimous decision defeat to Cory Sandhagen, which halted his previously unbeaten run. Despite the setback, Nurmagomedov’s comprehensive skill set – blending elite Sambo, wrestling, and striking – positions him as a unique threat in the 135-pound weight class. He expressed confidence post-fight that he had done enough to win against Sandhagen, despite the judges’ scorecards (48-47 twice, 49-46).

Nurmagomedov has been vocal about his commitment to address any perceived gaps in his performance, particularly regarding his gas tank, which some analysts suggest was a factor in his loss to Sandhagen. His ability to threaten takedowns and maintain a high pace could theoretically pose problems for the relentlessly pressuring Dvalishvili, who has effectively cleared out a significant portion of the division. As Dvalishvili prepares for a potential rematch against former champion Petr Yan in December, Nurmagomedov’s upcoming bout against Mario Bautista (14-2, 5 KOs, 6 Submissions) is pivotal. Bautista, riding an impressive eight-fight win streak, presents a formidable challenge. Nurmagomedov, installed as high as a 6-to-1 betting favorite, is under pressure to deliver a statement victory to re-establish his trajectory towards a future title shot against "The Machine," a challenge he believes he is uniquely equipped to handle.

5. Alexander Volkov Faces a Formidable "Gift" in Jailton Almeida

Alexander Volkov (37-10, 24 KOs, 4 Submissions), the towering Russian heavyweight, finds himself in a critical contender’s bout against Brazilian ground specialist Jailton Almeida. Volkov enters this matchup on a three-fight win streak, having secured TKO victories over Tai Tuivasa (September 2023), Alexander Romanov (March 2023), and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (June 2022). His last loss was to Tom Aspinall in March 2022. While the original article incorrectly referenced a disputed split decision loss to Ciryl Gane in December, Volkov’s career has indeed been marked by a series of high-stakes fights that have often eluded him, notably a late knockout loss to Derrick Lewis in 2018 while he was comfortably ahead.

UFC CEO Dana White has previously expressed a desire to "take care" of Volkov after certain contentious outcomes, leading to this matchup being colloquially termed a "gift." However, Almeida (20-3, 7 KOs, 12 Submissions) is anything but an easy fight. Almeida, who has compiled an 8-1 record in the UFC with seven finishes and four submissions, is a relentless grappler. While he is coming off a TKO loss to Curtis Blaydes in March 2024, which snapped his impressive six-fight UFC winning streak, his skill set poses a significant threat to Volkov. Almeida enters as a slight betting favorite, largely due to Volkov’s historically inconsistent takedown defense. For the 36-year-old former Bellator MMA champion, a victory over Almeida is crucial. It would not only solidify his position among the top contenders but also potentially place him in line for an elusive UFC title shot, a goal that remains contingent on the returns of figures like Jon Jones or the potential heavyweight aspirations of Alex Pereira.