Monday's NBA Player Prop Market: Examining Key Betting Opportunities Featuring Luka Doncic, Jalen Duren, and Deni Avdija.

As the NBA season progresses, the player prop market continues to gain traction among bettors seeking value beyond traditional moneylines and spreads. Monday’s slate of games presents several intriguing opportunities, with expert analysis from the SportsLine Projection Model highlighting specific player performances that could yield significant returns. The model, renowned for simulating every NBA game 10,000 times and boasting a track record of well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players over the past eight seasons, enters Week 3 of the 2025-26 NBA season on a robust 26-13 run on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season. This analytical framework offers a data-driven approach to identifying high-value player props, with three specific targets emerging for Monday’s action: Luka Doncic’s defensive contributions, Jalen Duren’s playmaking, and Deni Avdija’s rim protection.

Luka Doncic (Los Angeles Lakers): Over 1.5 Steals (+122)

The Los Angeles Lakers have commenced their season with an encouraging 7-3 record, a performance made all the more notable by the absence of star forward LeBron James, who is sidelined with a back injury. Stepping into a magnified leadership role, Luka Doncic, who joined the Lakers prior to the current season following a significant trade with the Dallas Mavericks, has been instrumental in the team’s early success. Doncic is expected to feature prominently in Monday’s cross-conference clash against the Charlotte Hornets, scheduled for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off. His availability is not in question, having managed a light 27-minute workload in Saturday’s contest before a day of rest.

While Doncic is primarily celebrated for his prodigious offensive talent—his scoring, passing, and court vision often dominating headlines—his defensive engagement has shown a marked increase in recent outings. This enhanced effort on the defensive end has translated into tangible results, with Doncic accumulating an impressive nine steals across his last three games. This surge in defensive activity presents a compelling case for his steals prop on Monday.

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The latest NBA odds have set Doncic’s over/under for steals at 1.5, with the "Over" option currently offering a lucrative payout as high as +122. SportsLine senior data analyst Stephen Oh has identified this as a particularly strong betting opportunity. Oh noted, "This is a +$$$ bet on a line under both his 1.7 average (1.8 on the road) since ’24 and his projection of 2 steals." He elaborated on the rationale, stating, "We are projecting two steals because the Lakers are forcing +3 more turnovers per game this season vs last, and Charlotte is averaging even more turnovers (16) than they did last season."

The Lakers’ defensive scheme appears to have evolved, emphasizing increased pressure and turnover creation, a strategy that aligns well with Doncic’s recent defensive aggression. While he recorded only one steal in his most recent game, the preceding two contests saw him rack up eight steals, indicating a consistent willingness to disrupt passing lanes and challenge ball-handlers. This trend, coupled with the Hornets’ susceptibility to turnovers—their current average of 16 turnovers per game exceeding their previous season’s mark—provides a statistical foundation for the "Over 1.5 steals" projection. Doncic’s heightened defensive focus, combined with an opponent prone to mistakes, positions this prop as a high-value play for Monday.

Jalen Duren (Detroit Pistons): Over 2.5 Assists (+130)

On a Detroit Pistons team that has faced its share of struggles this season, Jalen Duren has emerged as a dominant force in the paint. The young center has been an "absolute scoring and rebounding monster" in recent weeks, consistently delivering impressive individual performances. Over his last three games, Duren has posted scoring totals of 21, 30, and 22 points, and he has reached the 20-point mark in five of his last seven contests. His prowess on the boards and ability to finish around the rim are well-established.

However, Duren’s assist numbers this season have been notably lower than expected, particularly when contrasted with his prior performance. He has gone "Over 2.5 assists" in only two of his eight games this season. Despite this current trend, SportsLine analyst Stephen Oh sees significant value in betting the "Over 2.5 assists" for Duren on Monday, with odds at +130.

The key to this projection lies in the anticipated matchup and a phenomenon known as "regression to the mean." The Pistons are slated to face the San Antonio Spurs, who feature rookie center Alex Sarr. Sarr has rapidly established himself as an aggressive shot-blocker, elevating his average from 1.5 blocks in 27.1 minutes as a rookie to 2.5 blocks in 28.4 minutes this season. Oh explained, "I’m banking on Alex Sarr continuing to be an aggressive shot blocker… Duren will dominate the boards but may look to dish to an open shooter or someone cutting to the rim if Sarr is manning the paint."

This dynamic suggests that Sarr’s presence as a rim protector could encourage Duren to become more of a facilitator. While Duren will undoubtedly continue to attack the glass, encountering a formidable shot-blocker like Sarr might prompt him to seek out open teammates on the perimeter or cutters to the basket, rather than forcing contested shots. This tactical adjustment could naturally lead to an increase in assist opportunities.

Furthermore, Oh highlighted Duren’s historical assist performance: "Even with a low over rate this season, he was 36-38 with a 2.7 average over 2.5 assists last season." This statistic underscores that Duren has previously demonstrated a consistent ability to exceed the 2.5 assist mark. The model projects Duren for exactly 2.5 assists for Monday, and at +130 odds, the bet capitalizes on the expectation that his assist numbers will "start having a few 4 assist games to get back to last season’s levels," representing a prime "regression to the mean situation."

Deni Avdija (Portland Trail Blazers): Over 0.5 Blocks (+127)

Deni Avdija of the Portland Trail Blazers has been undergoing a significant growth spurt in his game, evolving into a multifaceted player described as an "absolute PRA monster" (Points, Rebounds, Assists) and a "true star" in recent times. His elevated status within the team ensures him substantial playing time, typically exceeding 35 minutes per game, which naturally increases his opportunities to impact the game across various statistical categories.

However, Avdija’s aggressive play and central role have also made him a target for opposing teams, who often try to get him into foul trouble early. This strategy has been evident in his recent stat lines, with Avdija accumulating five personal fouls in two of his last four games. This context is crucial when considering his block prop bet for Monday.

The Trail Blazers are set to face the Orlando Magic, a team known for its physically imposing frontcourt. This matchup is expected to be a challenging one for Avdija, but also one where his defensive instincts could be fully engaged. SportsLine analyst Stephen Oh anticipates this dynamic, stating, "I expect the front-court-led Magic to challenge him, and I expect him to get at least one block."

Historically, Avdija’s block numbers have not been consistently high; last season, he went "Over 0.5 blocks" in approximately 30% of his games. However, there has been a noticeable shift in his performance this season, as he is currently on an impressive 5-1 "Over" run for blocks. This recent trend suggests an increased emphasis or effectiveness in his rim protection.

Further bolstering the "Over 0.5 blocks" argument is the Orlando Magic’s own offensive profile. While the Magic averaged just 4.2 shots blocked per game last season, that figure has climbed significantly to 5.9 blocks per game this season. This indicates that Orlando’s offensive schemes, perhaps involving more aggressive drives or post-ups, are creating more opportunities for opponents to record blocks. With Avdija’s extended minutes, his willingness to contest shots, and the Magic’s tendency to generate block opportunities, the +127 odds for him to record at least one block present an attractive value proposition. The expectation is that Avdija’s defensive responsibilities against a robust Magic frontcourt, combined with his recent uptick in block production, will lead him to exceed this modest threshold.

Broader Betting Landscape

The rise of player prop betting has transformed the NBA betting landscape, offering a granular level of engagement with individual player performances. Various online sports betting platforms and sportsbooks provide extensive markets for these props, allowing bettors to leverage statistical models and expert analysis to inform their decisions. For new users, many sportsbooks frequently offer introductory promotions, such as bonus bets or enhanced odds, which can further amplify potential returns on initial wagers. The meticulous simulations and proven track record of models like SportsLine’s underscore the growing sophistication in sports analytics, empowering bettors to make more informed choices across a wide array of NBA betting opportunities.