Anshari Taslim
The National Basketball Association’s player movement landscape has undergone significant shifts in recent years, with the trade market increasingly dominating headlines. Franchise cornerstones and All-Star talents routinely change teams through intricate trade packages, often involving extensive hauls of draft picks. This trend has created an environment where few players are genuinely considered untouchable, fostering a dynamic of constant roster upheaval driven by trades. However, this heightened activity in the trade market has concurrently led to a discernible decrease in the excitement surrounding NBA free agency.
Over the past several collective bargaining agreements (CBAs), the mechanisms for contract extensions have been streamlined, making it easier for teams to secure their key players long-term. This has resulted in a scenario where the league’s premier talents rarely reach the open market, effectively limiting the pool of impactful unrestricted free agents. Consequently, teams have less incentive to preserve significant cap space, perpetuating a cycle that has culminated in a somewhat restricted free-agent class in recent years. While notable names are present, many are unlikely to relocate due to existing team commitments or player options. The era reminiscent of the 2019 offseason, which saw star players like Kevin Durant (Brooklyn Nets), Kyrie Irving (Brooklyn Nets), Jimmy Butler (Miami Heat), and Kawhi Leonard (Los Angeles Clippers) all make significant moves as free agents, is largely considered a bygone period.
Despite this broader trend, the value of strategic free-agent acquisitions remains undeniable, as evidenced by the reigning NBA champions, the New York Knicks. Their ascent to the league’s pinnacle was anchored by what many consider one of the most impactful free-agent signings in recent memory. While the current 2026 free-agent class may not feature a player poised for an identical trajectory, the journey of Jalen Brunson serves as a powerful reminder that even the most unexpected talents, when placed in optimal circumstances, can evolve into immensely valuable assets and foundational pieces for championship contenders. Brunson, a former second-round pick, transformed into an All-NBA caliber guard, leading the Knicks to their first championship in decades following his arrival. His exceptional playmaking, scoring prowess, and leadership proved instrumental, underscoring the potential for overlooked free agents to redefine a franchise’s fortunes.
This upcoming offseason presents a new cohort of players eligible for free agency. For the purpose of this ranking, unrestricted free agents (UFAs), restricted free agents (RFAs), and players holding player options were considered. Players with team options were excluded, though this class could see a boost if any of them, particularly a handful from the Oklahoma City Thunder, are not retained. In instances where exercising a player option is the overwhelmingly obvious strategic decision, such as with Zach LaVine, those players were omitted from this list. A comprehensive ranking of 40 theoretically available players has been compiled.
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1. Austin Reaves – Player Option
Austin Reaves, currently with the Los Angeles Lakers, is eligible for a five-year contract that could commence at 25% of the salary cap, projecting to a value of approximately $239.3 million. Reaves has emerged as a critical component of the Lakers’ roster, providing secondary playmaking, consistent three-point shooting, and tenacious defense. His 2025 season saw him average 16.5 points, 5.2 assists, and 3.8 rebounds, shooting 46% from the field and 38% from three-point range. While cap-space rich teams like the Brooklyn Nets or Chicago Bulls could theoretically present a maximum offer, the Lakers possess his Bird Rights, allowing them to exceed the salary cap to re-sign him. Dallas Mavericks star Luka Dončić, a close friend and former Olympic teammate, has also publicly expressed his desire for Reaves to join him. However, the prevailing expectation is that Reaves will ultimately re-sign with the Lakers, likely at a figure slightly below his maximum potential, as the team continues to build around its established young core.
2. Jalen Duren – Restricted Free Agent
As an All-NBA selection, Jalen Duren is technically eligible for a contract exceeding Reaves’s, potentially reaching 30% of the salary cap, or $287.1 million over five years from the Detroit Pistons. Duren, a formidable presence in the paint, showcased his athleticism and rebounding ability in the 2025 regular season, averaging 14.1 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks. However, his performance in the Pistons’ playoff run, particularly his struggles with foul trouble and offensive efficiency against more seasoned opponents, has likely diminished his chances of securing a true max contract. Detroit faces a pivotal decision, especially considering the development of Ausar Thompson, a non-shooting perimeter player who is also eligible for a rookie extension this offseason and is critical to their long-term build. If the Pistons express any reservations, Duren could attract a substantial offer sheet from teams with cap flexibility, such as the Lakers, Nets, or Bulls. Nevertheless, a return to Detroit on a contract below the maximum is considered the most probable outcome.
3. LeBron James – Unrestricted Free Agent
LeBron James, widely regarded as one of the greatest players in NBA history, has consistently commanded max or near-max salaries throughout his 19-year career. At 41 years old, he continues to defy age, maintaining significant productivity with averages of 25.1 points, 7.3 assists, and 7.2 rebounds in his 2025 season, coupled with his well-documented ability to elevate his play in the postseason. Despite his enduring impact, he is no longer the player he was at his peak, and his destination choices will likely be highly selective. The Lakers hold a significant advantage through their Bird Rights, enabling them to offer him any amount up to his maximum, which would be just shy of $58 million annually. Should he decide to explore other options, teams like the Golden State Warriors, seeking to revitalize their championship aspirations, are expected to pursue him, potentially utilizing their non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which starts at around $15 million.
4. Trae Young – Player Option
Following his trade to the Washington Wizards, the initial widespread expectation for Trae Young was a three-year extension in the range of $120 million. While this remains a plausible outcome, recent rumblings suggest a developing market for the dynamic point guard. Young has been cited as a potential backup option for the Miami Heat, particularly if Giannis Antetokounmpo were to sign elsewhere. The Nets and Bulls, both possessing substantial cap space and a need for a franchise cornerstone, could also justify offering him a significant contract in free agency. Young’s 2025 season with the Wizards saw him average 26.8 points and 10.1 assists, showcasing his elite scoring and playmaking. Given this emerging market, the Wizards may need to increase their offer to secure Young’s long-term commitment.
5. Walker Kessler – Restricted Free Agent
Walker Kessler, a towering center, missed a significant portion of the 2025 season due to injury and remains a developing free-throw shooter. However, his value is intrinsically linked to the ongoing shift towards the "Victor Wembanyama era," where size, rim protection, and defensive versatility are increasingly prized commodities. Kessler provides elite rim defense, strong offensive rebounding – a critical component in the New York Knicks’ championship run – and hints of three-point shooting upside. At just 24 years old, his market is anticipated to be extensive. Reports suggest dissatisfaction with the Utah Jazz’s negotiation approach, potentially leading to sign-and-trade offers. In the event of a complete breakdown in talks, Kessler could opt to accept his one-year qualifying offer, becoming an unrestricted free agent the following offseason.
6. Peyton Watson – Restricted Free Agent
Peyton Watson, a versatile wing, shares some characteristics with Kessler, albeit in a different positional context. While less accomplished and with a history of injuries, Watson is young, highly athletic, and coming off a breakout 2025 season where he averaged nearly 15 points on over 41% three-point shooting in an expanded role. The Knicks’ championship model, heavily reliant on two-way wings like OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges, underscores the potential for Watson to develop into a similar impactful player. The ultra-expensive Denver Nuggets are likely exploring salary-shedding maneuvers to facilitate his return. However, if they are unable to do so, a sufficiently high offer from another team could deter them from matching.
7. James Harden – Player Option
James Harden holds a $43.3 million player option for the upcoming season, though only $13.3 million of that is guaranteed. Historically, Harden’s pattern involves mid-season trades, strong initial performances, followed by playoff disappointments. Now 36, his decline is a factor. In the 2025 season with the Cleveland Cavaliers, he averaged 19.5 points and 8.3 assists. It is highly probable he will opt out of his current option and re-sign with the Cavaliers for multiple years at a lower annual figure, a move that would assist Cleveland in navigating the complexities of the second apron under the new CBA.
8. Andrew Wiggins – Player Option
At 31, Andrew Wiggins is at a critical juncture for securing another long-term contract. His current performance, averaging 17.8 points and 4.5 rebounds in 2025, coupled with his established reputation as a high-level defensive forward who can shoot threes and create his own offense, makes him an attractive asset. Wiggins was an essential component of the Warriors’ 2022 championship team. Given the limited means the Miami Heat would have to replace him, it would likely benefit Wiggins to opt out and compel Miami to negotiate a new deal. The Los Angeles Lakers represent an obvious potential suitor if he were to become available.
9. Draymond Green – Player Option
Draymond Green, a four-time NBA champion and defensive stalwart, holds a $27.7 million player option for the next season. While his playoff resume and career path differ significantly from Harden’s, their contractual situations share similarities. The most sensible move for Green would be to opt out, accept a lower annual salary, and re-sign with the Golden State Warriors on a multi-year deal, aiming to retire with the franchise. This decision would also provide the Warriors with greater financial flexibility to make other significant roster additions this offseason, particularly in navigating the hard cap imposed by the apron. Green’s impact, though not always reflected in scoring, was evident in his 8.5 points, 7.0 assists, and 6.8 rebounds in 2025.
10. Ayo Dosunmu – Unrestricted Free Agent
Ayo Dosunmu’s situation presents a significant challenge for the Minnesota Timberwolves. As an unrestricted free agent, he averaged 13.2 points, 3.5 assists, and 3.0 rebounds in 2025. The Timberwolves’ substantial payroll places them in a precarious position to replace him if he departs. The recent success of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, a key reserve they lost in free agency who subsequently won Most Improved Player, further highlights the risk. A contract offer above the mid-level exception would likely deter most potential suitors. However, if cap-space teams like the Lakers, Nets, or Bulls engage, his market value could escalate significantly. Dosunmu is widely considered a starting-caliber player, and Minnesota will likely face a financial ceiling in their efforts to retain him.
11. Tari Eason – Restricted Free Agent
Tari Eason, an athletic and defensively oriented wing, finished his age-24 season in 2025 with averages of 11.8 points and 6.5 rebounds. While he has not demonstrated the same offensive leap as Peyton Watson, similar logic regarding his potential applies. Eason possesses an improving jumper and a strong aptitude for offensive rebounding. The Houston Rockets, while not facing the same dire financial constraints as Denver, must be mindful of Amen Thompson’s impending extension. This situation implies a potential financial threshold beyond which the Rockets might be unwilling to match an offer sheet for Eason.
12. Fred VanVleet – Player Option
A new agreement between Fred VanVleet and the Houston Rockets appears highly probable. VanVleet is recovering from a torn ACL, and the Rockets’ offensive struggles in the 2025 playoffs without him underscored his critical importance. Houston’s decision not to trade his salary for a guard last season further suggests their commitment. VanVleet and the Rockets appear to be intrinsically linked, with the most likely scenario being him declining his player option (worth $24.5 million) to sign a new multi-year deal, building on his 2025 averages of 18.2 points and 7.1 assists.
13. Kristaps Porziņģis – Player Option
Kristaps Porziņģis represents a high-risk, high-reward proposition in this free-agent class. As a skilled shooting big man, he is immensely valuable in the current NBA landscape, especially with the league’s evolving focus on versatile bigs. His 2025 season saw him average 21.5 points and 7.5 rebounds, shooting 40% from three-point range. However, his career has been plagued by significant injury concerns. A new deal with the Golden State Warriors is the most probable outcome. Should the Warriors need to preserve cap flexibility for other targets, such as LeBron James, another team could swoop in with a mid-level offer. The San Antonio Spurs, who have shown past interest and experienced issues with center depth in the playoffs (e.g., Luke Kornet’s minutes), could offer Porziņģis the mid-level exception, managing his regular-season workload to unleash him as a key backup or even a frontcourt partner for Victor Wembanyama in the postseason.
14. Rui Hachimura – Unrestricted Free Agent
Rui Hachimura’s offensive efficiency, particularly his three-point shooting, has been remarkable. Over the past three regular seasons, he has shot 42.6% from deep, escalating to an astounding 50.7% on threes across the last four postseasons. While his defensive effort and rebounding as a power forward remain areas for improvement, Hachimura has transformed into an elite shooter and a capable scorer who can attack closeouts and create some of his own offense for the Lakers. If the Lakers opt to utilize their cap space for external free agents, Hachimura could become available at the mid-level exception. His 2025 averages were 13.8 points and 4.2 rebounds.
15. John Collins – Unrestricted Free Agent
John Collins offers a more balanced skill set than Hachimura, though Hachimura’s more consistent shooting gives him a slight edge among the "tweener" bigs. Collins is an effective pick-and-roll offensive player, and while he shouldn’t be a primary rim protector, his ability to play center in certain lineups is a valuable asset. His 2025 season with the Los Angeles Clippers saw him average 15.5 points and 7.8 rebounds. With the Clippers’ frontcourt depth diminished after trading Ivica Zubac, a new deal for Collins appears likely.
16. Mitchell Robinson – Unrestricted Free Agent
Mitchell Robinson is a starting-caliber center whose significant durability concerns limit his minutes. In the 2025 season, he averaged 8.2 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks for the Knicks. If a team is seeking a timeshare center, Robinson could be an ideal fit, providing elite rim protection, lob finishing, and offensive rebounding for approximately 20 minutes per game. If the Knicks are willing to exceed the second apron, they hold a strong position to retain him. However, if they operate under a firm budget, and with only about $13 million below the second apron threshold and at least four roster spots to fill, Robinson could be targeted by cap-space teams or center-needy teams in the mid-level market, with the Charlotte Hornets standing out as a strong fit.
17. Quentin Grimes – Unrestricted Free Agent
Quentin Grimes has primarily functioned as a standard "3-and-D" shooting guard throughout his career, a valuable archetype in the NBA. However, in March and April of 2025, in an expanded on-ball role, he averaged 25 points, attempting (unsuccessfully) to leverage this performance for a contract last offseason. His 2025 season with the Philadelphia 76ers saw him average 12.5 points and 3.0 rebounds. The question remains whether he possesses more on-ball creation than Philadelphia has allowed him to demonstrate. If another team believes this to be the case, it is difficult to envision the 76ers, who frequently manage their proximity to the luxury tax line, matching a significant offer. If he remains in Philadelphia, a contract roughly in the mid-level range is expected.
18. Coby White – Unrestricted Free Agent
Coby White demonstrated in Chicago that he is capable of starting for an NBA team, averaging 19.8 points and 5.0 assists in his 2025 campaign. However, he settled into one of the league’s most effective backup roles last season for his hometown Charlotte Hornets, crucially closing out their Play-In victory over Miami. Given LaMelo Ball’s injury concerns, the Hornets should be willing to pay a premium for a high-level backup like White. Unless a team, such as the Atlanta Hawks (should they elect to operate below the cap), makes an overwhelming offer for White to be a starter, he is likely to remain in his current, very favorable situation in Charlotte.
19. CJ McCollum – Unrestricted Free Agent
CJ McCollum, at 34, continues to be a formidable scorer, famously proving to be a "Knicks killer" by leading the Atlanta Hawks to two playoff victories against the eventual champions. While not the same player he was in Portland, McCollum can still exchange buckets with almost anyone, averaging 21.0 points and 5.8 assists in 2025. It would not be surprising if the Hawks brought him back on a substantial one-year deal. Atlanta is likely focused on maintaining financial flexibility while considering its long-term strategy, but McCollum was instrumental in their mid-season turnaround and remains their only reliable off-the-dribble threat.
20. Norm Powell – Unrestricted Free Agent
Norm Powell, 33, experienced two of his most productive seasons recently, achieving All-Star status with Miami last year and nearly doing so with the Clippers two years prior. He averaged 18.5 points in 2025. However, he has shown a tendency to decline late in the season due to injury. The Miami Heat’s defensive concerns about playing him alongside Tyler Herro could dictate his future. If Herro is traded, Miami would likely re-sign Powell to a significant, short-term deal as their designated guard scorer. Otherwise, he might have to settle for another team’s mid-level exception.
21. Collin Gillespie – Unrestricted Free Agent
Collin Gillespie emerged as a starting-level point guard and a fringe Most Improved Player candidate in the 2025 season, averaging 14.5 points and 6.2 assists for the Phoenix Suns. While the Suns likely wish to retain him, complications arise. If they intend to start Jalen Green alongside Devin Booker in the backcourt, Gillespie might be enticed by more minutes elsewhere. The Suns currently have limited luxury tax room (approximately $15 million) and aim to reset their repeater tax clock. Furthermore, they only possess Early Bird Rights for Gillespie, limiting their offer to 140% of the projected league-average salary. This could make them vulnerable to a larger offer from another team. Despite these factors, the Suns are expected to prioritize Gillespie’s return, with a contract around the mid-level exception being a probable outcome.
22. Anfernee Simons – Unrestricted Free Agent
Anfernee Simons, an explosive scorer with an underrated clutch resume, averaged 22.1 points and 4.8 assists in 2025. However, his significant defensive liabilities necessitate a star-level offensive output to justify his role, a level he has yet to consistently reach. For contending teams, Simons likely projects as a high-impact bench player, as demonstrated by the Boston Celtics not starting him last season. A contract in the mid-level range seems appropriate, though the Bulls, if they elect to keep him, might offer a slightly higher figure on a shorter-term deal.
23. Bennedict Mathurin – Restricted Free Agent
Bennedict Mathurin is a microwave scorer whose elite skill is his exceptional ability to draw fouls. In 2025, among players averaging at least 25 minutes, Mathurin had the ninth-highest free-throw attempt rate, a statistic typically reserved for All-Stars. His shot and defense have not developed as quickly as hoped, contributing to Indiana’s decision to trade him to the Los Angeles Clippers. Mathurin averaged 16.0 points and 4.0 rebounds in 2025. His foul-drawing prowess pairs well with Darius Garland’s less aggressive style of play. Mathurin’s long-term role is likely as a sixth man, and his market should reflect this. The Clippers will likely match any offer sheets to retain the asset, though the price they paid for Ivica Zubac suggests they may not value Mathurin as a starter.
24. Robert Williams III – Unrestricted Free Agent
Robert Williams III, a cheaper alternative to Mitchell Robinson, shares similar attributes: capable of starter-level play but not starter-level minutes due to significant health risks. He played only 26 combined games in the 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons. However, he returned for a healthy and productive 2025-26 season, averaging 10.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks. Any team with a healthy center rotation should consider him for an enhanced playoff role. His performance against San Antonio in the first round for the Portland Trail Blazers underscored his potential impact.
25. Collin Sexton – Unrestricted Free Agent
Collin Sexton has consistently shown growth in his offensive game, evolving into a high-level bench scorer and a borderline elite shooter, averaging 18.8 points and 4.5 assists in 2025. He has also made substantial strides as a playmaker. While a viable defensive guard has yet to materialize for him in the NBA, despite glimpses in college, he has never had strong defensive infrastructure around him. Until his defensive potential is realized, he remains a valuable backup point guard.
26. Tobias Harris – Unrestricted Free Agent
Tobias Harris, now heading into his age-34 season, has amassed significant career earnings, remarkably ranking as the 22nd-highest paid player in NBA history. In 2025, he averaged 15.0 points and 6.0 rebounds for the Detroit Pistons. At this stage, his days of securing obscene contracts are likely behind him. Teams can expect decent three-point shooting, occasional individual creation (which notably increased during a stretch of the 2025 playoffs), and a strong locker room presence. He could still start, but is probably best suited for a high-end bench role on a good team. The Pistons could create substantial cap space by renouncing his cap hold, suggesting he may need to accept a discount or seek employment elsewhere.
27. Kelly Oubre – Unrestricted Free Agent
Kelly Oubre, similar to Tobias Harris, could start for some teams but is likely best suited for a high-end bench role. In 2025, he averaged 14.2 points and 4.5 rebounds for the Philadelphia 76ers. It is difficult to envision Philadelphia retaining both Oubre and Quentin Grimes if they aim to avoid the luxury tax, making Oubre a potentially available asset. He is a serviceable wing defender who takes plenty of three-pointers but needs to improve his consistency, reliably providing around 15 points per night. Wing depth remains a valuable commodity in the NBA.
28. Sandro Mamukelashvili – Player Option
Sandro Mamukelashvili’s value hinges significantly on a team’s defensive strength, as his shooting and passing are genuine offensive weapons. He holds a player option for the minimum salary, but his 2025 season, in which he garnered fringe Sixth Man of the Year consideration by averaging 10.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, vastly outplayed that figure. He is expected to command a high-end backup contract, potentially similar to the deal Luke Kornet received from San Antonio a year ago.
29. Landry Shamet – Unrestricted Free Agent
Landry Shamet spent the past two years on minimum-salary contracts, a valuation that made sense given his prior defensive limitations. However, he has shown substantial growth on the defensive end, averaging 8.5 points and 2.8 assists in 2025 for the Knicks. When combined with his reliable jumper and the championship experience gained with the Knicks, Shamet is likely looking at a contract worth $8-10 million annually. The Knicks possess sufficient guard depth to potentially let him walk if they are concerned about the second apron, though they would undoubtedly prefer to retain him if willing to incur the associated tax penalties.
30. Keon Ellis – Unrestricted Free Agent
Keon Ellis, who averaged 7.0 points and 2.5 rebounds in 2025, became a cause célèbre among NBA analysts during his initial bench role in Sacramento. Despite a plus-defender reputation, he struggled to earn consistent minutes in Cleveland under Kenny Atkinson. Ellis is a relatively small defender, and while he reliably makes three-pointers, his offensive contributions beyond that are limited. He is a niche player best suited for a team with ample offensive creation and a dire need for point-of-attack defense, such as the Lakers. Asking for more than this specific role would likely lead to disappointment.
31. Kevin Porter Jr. – Player Option
The question surrounding Kevin Porter Jr. is whether his 2025 season, where he averaged 17.5 points and 5.5 assists for the Milwaukee Bucks, represented a genuine leap or merely inflated statistics on a struggling team. His scoring numbers were notably lower when sharing the court with Giannis Antetokounmpo, and he remains heavily reliant on contested jumpers. However, he significantly increased his free-throw attempts without Antetokounmpo and showed meaningful improvements as both a playmaker and defender. Despite his talent, career inconsistency and past off-court issues will likely keep his market somewhat tepid. The Bucks are expected to retain him, making him a featured part of their post-Antetokounmpo roster to further assess his development.
32. Marcus Smart – Player Option
Marcus Smart’s market will be limited by age (32) and a history of injuries. However, he outperformed his bi-annual exception contract for the Lakers in 2025, averaging 9.8 points, 5.0 assists, and 1.5 steals, and was particularly effective in the first-round series against Houston. He still provides strong defense and reliable ball-handling for bench units, though his shot remains inconsistent. Ideally, Smart would join a contending team capable of managing his minutes across an 82-game season.
33. Luke Kennard – Unrestricted Free Agent
Luke Kennard, one of the NBA’s premier three-point shooters, also carries a reputation for being frustratingly reluctant to shoot at times. His career pattern involves teams falling in love with his offense, only for defensive shortcomings and inconsistent shot selection to erode coaching trust. In 2025, he averaged 10.2 points, shooting 43% from three. While still a valuable player and a difference-maker against the Rockets, he is likely limited to one-year deals below the mid-level at this stage of his career.
34. Deandre Ayton – Player Option
Deandre Ayton’s career has been characterized by maddening inconsistency, capable of ranging from a high-level starter to borderline unplayable within a single game. His talent was recognized by being drafted before Luka Dončić, yet his frustrating play led Portland to pay $25 million for him to depart last season. In 2025, he averaged 14.5 points and 9.5 rebounds. He struggles to get to the free-throw line, and his pick-and-roll defense is a weakness. However, his mid-range jumper is automatic, he defends the post effectively, and when engaged, he can be a very high-level rebounder. At his best, he could be significantly higher on this list; at his worst, he is a legitimate negative asset.
35. De’Anthony Melton – Unrestricted Free Agent
The impact of De’Anthony Melton’s inconsistent three-point shooting in 2025 (averaging 8.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.2 steals) on his free-agent market is a key question, as this was an outlier season for him. His defense and overall floor game were strong in prior years. As a smaller guard with an injury history, his market may not fully reflect his capabilities, but he should certainly command a contract above the minimum from a quality team next season.
36. Jose Alvarado – Player Option
Jose Alvarado holds a $4.5 million player option for the upcoming season. He may opt out to explore free agency, but he is also eligible for an extension. The Knicks have a history of working with players to opt-in and extend for short-term financial flexibility, as seen with Josh Hart. Alvarado, like Shamet and Robinson, is subject to the Knicks’ willingness to delve into the second apron. With Tyler Kolek potentially in-house as a replacement, Alvarado may not have extensive leverage. However, as a Finals hero and local icon, a new deal with the Knicks makes sense for all parties involved. In 2025, he averaged 6.8 points and 2
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