NBA player props, picks, odds: Target Victor Wembanyama with Friday NBA best bets

As the NBA season progresses into its third week of the 2025-26 campaign, discerning bettors are increasingly turning to player prop markets for value, with advanced analytical models providing critical insights into individual performance projections. On Friday, the SportsLine Inside the Lines team, leveraging its sophisticated projection model, has pinpointed several compelling player prop opportunities, with particular attention drawn to San Antonio Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama and his assist potential against the Houston Rockets.

Victor Wembanyama, the towering 7-foot-4 center, continues to defy conventional positional expectations with his versatile skill set. Renowned for his ability to handle the ball like a guard and shoot effectively from the perimeter, Wembanyama has established himself as a multifaceted offensive threat. Currently ranked 14th in the NBA in scoring, averaging 25.6 points per game, his impact extends beyond individual scoring to facilitating for his teammates. While not typically leading the Spurs in assists, Wembanyama has demonstrated a capacity to distribute the ball effectively, creating scoring opportunities for others.

For Friday’s contest against the Rockets, SportsLine’s Inside the Lines team has endorsed a pick on Wembanyama to exceed 3.5 assists. This particular prop bet carries odds of +118, indicating a favorable return should the prediction materialize. The SportsLine Projection Model, which meticulously simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, forecasts Wembanyama to achieve 4.0 assists in this matchup, slightly above the set line and his historical average.

Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s senior data analyst, provided the rationale behind this projection. "I actually like that he’s on 9-for-28 from the field his last two games, with just five total assists in back-to-back Spurs losses," Oh stated. He elaborated on the potential for strategic adjustments following a losing streak, suggesting that Wembanyama might prioritize finding open teammates more frequently. This pattern aligns with his previous performances during a three-game winning streak, where he recorded significant Points+Rebounds+Assists (PRA) stat lines, including outputs of 27/16/6, 24/15/4, and 31/14/4. Since the previous season, Wembanyama has averaged 3.7 assists per game, with an even 23-23 record against the 3.5 assists line, making the current projection of 4.0 assists and the plus-money odds an attractive proposition.

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Beyond the Wembanyama selection, the SportsLine model has identified two additional player props offering potential value for Friday’s slate.

Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks: Over 10.5 Points (-127)

Atlanta Hawks wing Zaccharie Risacher, in his second professional season, has seen an expanded role within the team’s offense, particularly following the injury to star guard Trae Young. Since Young’s absence, Risacher has averaged 14 points per game over the three full games played, indicating his increased scoring responsibility. The SportsLine model projects Risacher to score 12.5 points in approximately 24 minutes of play, taking just under 11 field goal attempts. This projection aligns closely with his current season averages.

The matchup against the Toronto Raptors also presents a favorable environment for Risacher. The Raptors have struggled defensively on the road, allowing an average of 120 points per game. Risacher’s past performances against Toronto further bolster this pick, having scored 16 points in a matchup on October 22nd and 14 points in another encounter with the Raptors. Historically, dating back to the previous season, Risacher has surpassed the 10.5-point mark in 61% of his games (47-30), providing a robust statistical foundation for this wager.

Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City Thunder: Over 6.5 Points (-114)

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Alex Caruso’s defensive prowess is expected to be a crucial factor in his playing time during Friday’s game against the Sacramento Kings. The Kings roster features a formidable lineup of "big, athletic, offensively aggressive wing players" outside of Domantas Sabonis, necessitating Caruso’s defensive presence on the court. This defensive demand is projected to translate into more than 24 minutes of playing time for Caruso.

Furthermore, the game’s projected outcome, with the Thunder favored by 10.5 points, suggests a potential blowout scenario. In such instances, Caruso’s minutes could remain high, or even increase, as the Thunder manage the game. The SportsLine model projects Caruso to score 8.5 points in 24 minutes. Analyst Stephen Oh highlighted a strong correlation between Caruso’s minutes and his scoring output. When Caruso plays between 22 and 24 minutes, he has exceeded the 6.5-point line in 14 of 18 games. Conversely, when his playing time falls between 18 and 22 minutes, he only surpasses this line in 12 of 30 games. This statistical split underscores the importance of his expected minutes in this particular matchup.

The SportsLine Projection Model has demonstrated a consistent track record of success in NBA betting. Over the past eight seasons, the model has generated over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks. Entering Week 3 of the current 2025-26 NBA season, the model maintained an impressive run, with a 26-13 record on top-rated NBA spread picks extending back to the previous season. These results underscore the model’s accuracy and its capacity to identify valuable betting opportunities across various markets.

The increasing popularity of NBA player props across leading online sports betting platforms and applications provides a dynamic landscape for bettors. By leveraging advanced analytical tools like the SportsLine Projection Model, individuals can navigate the competitive NBA odds market and uncover edges that might not be immediately apparent. These expertly derived predictions offer a data-driven approach to enhancing NBA picks, potentially leading to significant returns. Insights like these can also be utilized in conjunction with various promotional offers typically available through regulated sportsbooks.

In addition to these specific player prop recommendations, SportsLine offers comprehensive NBA projections for every player prop across Friday’s schedule. Further expert analysis is also available from seasoned NBA handicappers, including Matt Severance, who has achieved a 22-12 record (+697 profit) on his initial 33 NBA picks this season. Such resources provide a robust foundation for informed betting decisions throughout the NBA season.