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Exactly twelve months ago, at the iconic Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Josh Berry, piloting the storied #21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford, achieved a career-defining moment. His victory, a surprise for many given he led only 18 laps, marked the 206th unique winner in the pinnacle of stock car racing. This drought of new victors is unusual, especially when contrasted with recent seasons. In 2024, Harrison Burton broke through for his maiden win, and the year prior, Shane van Gisbergen added his name to the prestigious list. The 2022 season, in particular, was a banner year for emerging talent, witnessing four different drivers secure their first Cup Series victory in the inaugural season of the Next Gen car: Tyler Reddick, Ross Chastain, Daniel Suarez, and Chase Briscoe, who coincidentally became the sport’s 200th different winner.
As the 2026 season progresses, the anticipation mounts for the next chapter in this narrative of first-time triumphs. While eleven of the 36 full-time drivers are yet to experience the elation of a points-paying Cup Series victory, a select group stands out as the most probable contenders to break the current winless streak and join NASCAR’s elite club of over 200 different race winners.
Carson Hocevar: The Imminent Breakthrough
Carson Hocevar, at the wheel of the #77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet, is arguably the most compelling candidate to achieve his maiden Cup Series win. His performance trajectory suggests that a victory is not a matter of if, but when. Hocevar has demonstrated remarkable resilience and speed, coming agonizingly close on multiple occasions. He was leading the 2026 Daytona 500 as the white flag waved, and more recently, restarted on the front row for the final push at Atlanta. The 23-year-old driver recently secured his future with Spire Motorsports, signing a contract extending into the 2030s, a testament to the team’s belief in his potential and allowing him to focus singularly on achieving race wins. In the 2025 season, Hocevar recorded four top-five finishes, including two runner-up showings, and has impressively led 141 laps, signaling his capability to contend for the win.
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Ty Gibbs: Statistical Promise in a Powerful Program
Ty Gibbs, representing Joe Gibbs Racing in their #54 Toyota, finds himself in a statistically strong but winless position. His recent performance at Phoenix, where he led late in the race before being overtaken by Ryan Blaney with ten laps remaining, highlights his current form. This near-victory followed his second consecutive top-five finish, underscoring his consistent improvement. Gibbs holds the distinction of having the most starts for Joe Gibbs Racing without a win, a statistic that belies his considerable talent and the resources of his championship-contending team. Across 127 Cup Series starts, Gibbs has amassed an impressive 19 top-five finishes, 35 top-ten finishes, secured two pole positions, and led 852 laps. No other winless driver in the series boasts comparable statistics. The continued support from his grandfather’s legendary team suggests that every effort is being made to propel Gibbs into Victory Lane.
Ryan Preece: A Clash Victory and a Hunger for More
Ryan Preece, piloting the #41 Ford for RFK Racing, has already tasted victory in a NASCAR Cup Series event, albeit an exhibition race. His triumph in the rain-affected Clash at Bowman Gray Stadium at the beginning of the 2026 season served as a significant morale boost and further fueled his determination to secure a points-paying win. Preece has a proven track record in the lower NASCAR national series, and his Cup Series performances have been steadily improving. He has achieved a best finish of third and narrowly missed a win at Talladega last year, finishing second in a photo finish before a disqualification due to a technical infraction. With 227 Cup Series starts dating back to 2015, Preece is one of the more experienced drivers on this list. He has secured seven top-five finishes, three of which occurred in the 2025 season. His ability to lead laps, with 133 of his 313 career laps led coming in 2025, indicates he possesses the pace to contend.
Connor Zilisch: A Rookie’s Potential in the Making
Connor Zilisch, a highly-touted rookie with Trackhouse Racing, has faced a challenging start to his first full-time Cup Series campaign. A series of incidents and mechanical issues have hampered his early results. However, flashes of speed, particularly on road courses, have been evident. At Circuit of the Americas (COTA), had it not been for two late-race spins on restarts, Zilisch could have been in contention for the win. With three road and street course races remaining on the 2026 schedule, these venues represent significant opportunities for the young driver. Zilisch’s rookie season in the O’Reilly Series followed a similar pattern, with a slow start eventually giving way to a strong performance. Despite not yet securing a top-ten finish in the Cup Series, his seven starts provide ample time for him to adapt, overcome his current run of bad luck, and demonstrate his considerable potential.
Zane Smith: An Emerging Threat on Drafting Tracks and Beyond
Zane Smith, driving for Front Row Motorsports in their #38 Ford, has emerged as a significant contender in the early stages of the 2026 season. His near-victory in the Daytona 500 and a strong showing at Atlanta demonstrated his capability. An incident on the final restart at COTA prevented him from potentially achieving three consecutive top-ten finishes to open the year. While Front Row Motorsports’ last Cup Series win dates back to 2023, and Smith’s most potent opportunities may lie on drafting tracks, his recent performances warrant close attention. Furthermore, Smith’s history includes a second-place finish at Nashville in 2024 and an impressive third-place result at Bristol last year, suggesting he has the ability to compete and win on a variety of track types.
Beyond these top contenders, other full-time drivers seeking their first Cup Series victory include Noah Gragson, Todd Gilliland, John-Hunter Nemechek, Riley Herbst, Ty Dillon, and Cody Ware. Each of these drivers possesses the determination and skill to potentially surprise the field and achieve their maiden win.
The current drought of first-time winners has intensified the narrative surrounding these drivers. As the 2026 season unfolds, the focus will remain squarely on who among them will be the next to experience the profound accomplishment of reaching NASCAR Cup Series Victory Lane, breaking the year-long silence and writing a new chapter in the sport’s storied history.
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