Week 13 College Football: Playoff Aspirations, Conference Battles Define Crucial Saturday Slate

College football’s regular season enters its penultimate week, with the playoff picture beginning to solidify for some while remaining intensely competitive for a multitude of others. While a select group of teams—Ohio State, Indiana, and Texas A&M—appear to hold strong positions for College Football Playoff bids, and others like Texas Tech, Georgia, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, and potentially Alabama are heavily favored to secure their paths, numerous contenders are still vying for limited open spots. At least 22 teams maintain a realistic chance, ensuring that Week 13 will be pivotal across various conferences, including unsettled races in the ACC, American, Big 12, Conference USA, Mountain West, MAC, and SEC. The intrigue extends to Ole Miss, which is not only pursuing a playoff berth but also navigating a coaching situation. This Saturday presents a dense schedule of matchups with significant implications, demanding close attention from fans and analysts alike.

All times Eastern, all games on Saturday unless otherwise noted.

Key Big Ten West Showdown

No. 15 USC at No. 7 Oregon (3:30 p.m., CBS)

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Oregon concludes its Big Ten schedule facing familiar foes, USC and Washington. The 9-1 Ducks are favored in both contests and are projected to remain in strong playoff contention even with a 10-2 record. USC, at 8-2 and ranked 15th in the CFP, faces a win-out scenario to maintain any playoff hopes. The matchup features an elite offensive unit against an elite defensive unit when USC possesses the ball.

Statistically, USC’s offense ranks second nationally in yards per play, fifth in points per drive, and fourth in success rate. Conversely, Oregon’s defense ranks third in yards per play allowed, ninth in points per drive allowed, and 18th in defensive success rate, while also leading the nation in yards per successful play allowed. This sets up a compelling clash of strengths.

USC quarterback Jayden Maiava continues to lead the nation in Total QBR, a testament to his rare combination of sack avoidance and big-play passing. He ranks fifth among power-conference quarterbacks with only 9.9% of pressures converting to sacks and averages 14.3 yards per completion (fourth nationally). Wide receiver Makai Lemon provides an all-around threat, catching 61% of his passes from the slot and 35% from wide alignments. While effective on short routes, Lemon has also been highly efficient on deep throws, securing 14 of 19 passes for 517 yards and three touchdowns on balls thrown 20-plus yards downfield. Last week, against Iowa’s top-tier defense, Lemon recorded 10 catches for 153 yards. Oregon’s defense, however, presents an even tougher challenge, ranking third in defensive SP+ and second in yards allowed per dropback. The Ducks have not allowed more than 5.3 yards per play in any game this season, a benchmark USC’s offense has yet to fall below.

The outcome may hinge on USC’s defense, which ranks 37th in defensive SP+, marking Lincoln Riley’s best defensive unit in Los Angeles. However, against top-20 offenses (Illinois and Notre Dame), the Trojans conceded an average of 34.0 points and 7.2 yards per play. Oregon’s offense ranks 10th in offensive SP+. While USC’s pass defense is solid, their rush defense ranks 126th in success rate allowed and 103rd in stuff rate. This vulnerability is significant against an Oregon team known for its ground game, which ranks second nationally in both rushing success rate and yards per carry. Despite occasional inconsistencies in the passing game from Dante Moore, the Ducks boast exceptional depth at running back, with Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison, and Dierre Hill Jr. all averaging at least 7.0 yards per carry. This sustained ground threat makes it difficult to consistently force Oregon into predictable passing downs.

Current line: Ducks -9.5 | SP+ projection: Ducks by 10.6 | FPI projection: Ducks by 6.0

Sustaining Playoff Momentum: Oklahoma and BYU

Oklahoma and BYU are positioned favorably for playoff contention, yet statistical projections indicate potential hurdles. SP+ assigns the Sooners a 46% probability of winning their next two games, while the Cougars stand at 52%. Both teams enter Week 13 with little margin for error.

No. 22 Missouri at No. 8 Oklahoma (noon, ABC)

Oklahoma has established a clear identity: applying pressure on the opponent’s offensive line, capitalizing on quarterback errors, winning the turnover battle, and excelling in the red zone. This approach was evident in their recent six-point victory at Tennessee, where they forced three turnovers, including a touchdown return, and limited the Volunteers to two touchdowns on nine red zone trips. The Sooners then secured a win against Alabama in Tuscaloosa despite being outgained by 184 yards, forcing three more turnovers, returning another for a touchdown, and blocking a field goal. Over their last six games, Oklahoma holds a plus-8 turnover margin in wins and a minus-4 margin in losses.

Missouri’s defense presents a formidable challenge, forcing three-and-outs on 42.6% of opponent drives (fifth nationally). While occasionally susceptible to big plays, Oklahoma’s offense typically does not rely on them. Missouri’s run game, led by national rushing leader Ahmad Hardy, excels in field position battles and leads the nation in net YAC. This game could evolve into a classic rushing and punting contest where Missouri would hold an advantage, but quarterback play remains a critical factor. Oklahoma’s John Mateer, despite a recent dip in form since returning from injury (63.2 Total QBR, 5.0 yards per dropback, 2-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio in his last five games), still offers a significant advantage over Missouri’s current options. Beau Pribula is attempting to return from an ankle dislocation, while true freshman Matt Zollers has struggled in two starts with a 21.9 Total QBR.

The turnover margin is expected to be decisive. Oklahoma’s defensive front, spearheaded by defensive end Taylor Wein, generates substantial havoc, averaging 10.2 tackles for loss per game, significantly higher than any other team’s 8.5. This disruptive capability could force crucial mistakes from Missouri’s quarterback.

Current line: OU -7.5 (down from -9.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 5.4 | FPI projection: OU by 3.5

No. 11 BYU at Cincinnati (8 p.m., Fox)

BYU, Texas Tech, and Utah are recognized as the Big 12’s most physical teams, boasting a combined 27-4 record in 2025, with a 3-3 record against each other and 24-1 against all other opponents. Following a loss to Texas Tech, BYU responded with a dominant 44-13 victory over TCU. They now face a Cincinnati team that has experienced a downturn, with recent losses to Utah (45-14) and Arizona (30-24), leading to a drop to 37th in SP+.

Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who performed well for much of the season, completed just 26 of 61 passes (43%) for two touchdowns and three interceptions in the two recent losses. Even strong production from running back Tawee Walker could not salvage those games. The Bearcats’ defense has been a consistent challenge, and their offense has recently failed to compensate. BYU’s offense, while occasionally inconsistent, averages 38.8 points and 6.5 yards per play against defenses ranked 30th or worse in SP+. The question remains whether Cincinnati can match this offensive output.

Current line: BYU -2.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 4.2 | FPI projection: BYU by 4.4

ACC Title Race: Clarity Amidst Potential Chaos

The ACC title scenarios range from straightforward to highly intricate. A Georgia Tech victory over Pitt this Saturday, combined with a Virginia win against Virginia Tech next week, would likely set up a Georgia Tech-Virginia championship game. However, a Pitt victory over Georgia Tech would put the Panthers in contention, requiring an underdog win against Miami next week to clinch. SMU’s title hopes are also tied to a Pitt win, but the Mustangs face challenging remaining games against Louisville and at Cal.

Pitt at No. 16 Georgia Tech (7 p.m., ESPN)

Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschel’s performance last week against Notre Dame reflected his freshman status, completing 16 of 33 passes with an interception and four sacks in a 37-15 loss. The run game was largely ineffective, and star running back Desmond Reid sustained an injury. Despite a decent defensive effort, the loss was significant. Head coach Pat Narduzzi emphasized that the game’s outcome against Notre Dame was secondary to their conference aspirations; winning their next two games would secure a spot in the ACC title game.

Georgia Tech’s defense presents a more favorable matchup for Pitt than Notre Dame’s, ranking 99th in yards allowed per carry (excluding sacks) and 95th in yards allowed per dropback. While the Yellow Jackets are effective when opponents fall behind schedule, such scenarios are infrequent. Pitt is expected to generate a respectable offensive output, but they must contain Georgia Tech’s dual-threat quarterback Haynes King. Over his last six starts, King has averaged 291 passing yards and 93 non-sack rushing yards per game, a pace that translates to nearly 4,000 passing and 1,200 rushing yards over a full season.

The stakes are considerable for Georgia Tech, with the potential to win the ACC title and secure long-awaited revenge against rival Georgia, or face a double heartbreak.

Current line: Tech -2.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 2.0 | FPI projection: Tech by 1.8

Louisville at SMU (noon, ESPN2)

Louisville’s recent performances have been hampered by offensive line issues and penalties. Two weeks ago, 42% of their offensive snaps resulted in zero or negative yardage against Cal, contributing to an upset loss. Last week, despite improved efficiency, 10 penalties, including four by offensive linemen and blocking tight ends, led to a defeat against Clemson. These offensive line struggles, compounded by running back injuries, have derailed Louisville’s ACC title and CFP aspirations. Their current objective is to disrupt SMU’s playoff hopes.

SMU possesses defensive strengths that could exploit Louisville’s vulnerabilities, ranking 25th in stuff rate and 37th in sack rate. While the Mustangs’ defense can concede big plays and has faced secondary injuries, they excel at generating pressure, which is crucial against Louisville quarterback Miller Moss. Conversely, Louisville’s defense holds advantages, ranking in the top 20 for yards allowed per carry and dropback. Edge rusher Clev Lubin and slot corner Antonio Watts are key disruptors who could provide Louisville with opportunities.

Current line: SMU -2.5 | SP+ projection: SMU by 2.6 | FPI projection: SMU by 4.6

Keeping Playoff Hopes Alive: The Quintet’s Quest

Approximately one College Football Playoff spot is projected to be available for the group comprising No. 12 Utah, No. 13 Miami, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 15 USC, and No. 18 Michigan. With the exception of USC, these four teams are double-digit favorites this weekend but face distinct challenges.

Kentucky at No. 14 Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

Vanderbilt utilized its bye week to rest a defense that had conceded 82 points in its previous two games. A victory over Kentucky at home, followed by a road win at Tennessee, would significantly enhance their CFP odds. Quarterback Diego Pavia’s sustained strong play positions Vanderbilt favorably. However, Kentucky enters the game with momentum, having overachieved against SP+ projections by 24.6 points per game over their last three contests, elevating them from 66th to 43rd in SP+. Quarterback Cutter Boley has posted a Total QBR of at least 78.0 in five of his last six games, and running backs Seth McGowan and Dante Dowdell have combined for 355 yards and seven touchdowns in the last two games. Vanderbilt is accustomed to high-scoring affairs but cannot afford a misstep against a resurgent opponent.

Current line: Vandy -9.5 | SP+ projection: Vandy by 11.3 | FPI projection: Vandy by 7.7

No. 18 Michigan at Maryland (4 p.m., BTN)

Should Michigan win its final two games, they would present a significant dilemma for the CFP committee. Ranked 18th, they require assistance to climb into playoff contention, but a victory over top-ranked Ohio State would be a substantial boost and could potentially secure a Big Ten championship game berth. A key question surrounds Michigan’s consistency: apart from a 63-3 win over Central Michigan and a dominant 24-7 performance against Washington, their playoff-caliber form has been sporadic. They have underperformed against projections in five of their last six games. Maryland has struggled in November, being outscored by an average of 38-12. Michigan needs to deliver a convincing performance, potentially in rainy conditions, to demonstrate their playoff credentials.

Current line: Michigan -13.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 9.4 | FPI projection: Michigan by 10.5

No. 13 Miami at Virginia Tech (noon, ESPN)

Miami’s No. 13 CFP ranking has generated discussion. While they defeated No. 9 Notre Dame in the season opener and share the same number of losses, Notre Dame’s losses were to the No. 3 and No. 13 teams, coupled with a win over No. 15 USC. Miami, conversely, has two losses to unranked opponents, marked by cautious play late in both games, and lacks other highly impressive victories. Despite this, the Hurricanes displayed exceptional form last week against NC State, their best performance since Week 3, even with mounting injury concerns. Sustaining this level of play could earn them crucial "style points." Virginia Tech has struggled recently against Louisville and Florida State, and potentially sloppy weather could introduce an additional variable.

Current line: Miami -17.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 23.3 | FPI projection: Miami by 16.8

Kansas State at No. 12 Utah (4 p.m., ESPN2)

Kansas State experienced a brief surge, winning three of four games to reach 4-4. However, a decisive loss to Texas Tech was followed by a dismal performance against Oklahoma State, where they relied on five takeaways to secure a victory. Their momentum has stalled as they prepare to face a formidable Utah team. The Utes, ranked eighth in SP+, have defeated only one SP+ top-50 opponent, but their victories have been dominant, with an average margin of 48-12.

Kansas State’s Avery Johnson remains an elusive quarterback, and their run defense is respectable. However, containing Utah’s star John Henry Daley for an entire game presents a significant challenge. Similarly, disrupting quarterback Devon Dampier and Utah’s potent ground game for an extended period appears difficult.

Current line: Utah -17.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 17.0 | FPI projection: Utah by 15.3

Group of Five Playoff Contenders: A Week of Vulnerability?

The competition for the Group of Five’s guaranteed playoff spot has narrowed to three primary contenders: 9-1 James Madison, 9-1 North Texas, and 8-2 Tulane. The past two weeks have seen a front-runner fall each time, suggesting that Tulane, now the highest-ranked team, might face similar peril. James Madison also confronts a challenging home test. SP+ projections indicate only a 48% chance that all three favorites emerge victorious this week.

No. 24 Tulane at Temple (3:45 p.m., ESPNU)

Temple, under K.C. Keeler, has been a surprising 5-5 team. At their best, the Owls demonstrate high-level passing from Evan Simon and strong pursuit from linebackers Damien Ordonez and Cam’Ron Stewart. However, their peak performance may have occurred a month ago. Tulane, conversely, has exhibited inconsistency, securing wins against Memphis and East Carolina but suffering a no-show loss against UTSA in between. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has performed as advertised, but Tulane’s pass defense has been problematic at times. If Temple can regain its sharpness after a bye week, this matchup could prove challenging for Tulane.

Current line: Tulane -7.5 | SP+ projection: Tulane by 5.6 | FPI projection: Tulane by 4.2

Washington State at James Madison (1 p.m., ESPN+)

For the third time in six weeks, Washington State travels east of the Mississippi River, this time to face James Madison in potentially rainy conditions at 10 a.m. PT. Despite the travel, the Cougars are in strong form, having risen from 111th to 69th in SP+ since September and allowing only 11.5 points per game over a six-game stretch that included trips to Virginia and Ole Miss. James Madison, however, has been exceptional, led by defensive ends Sahir West and Aiden Gobaira. The Dukes rank eighth nationally in points allowed per drive, and their offense has averaged 52 points over its last four games after a midseason dip.

Current line: JMU -13.5 | SP+ projection: JMU by 14.5 | FPI projection: JMU by 12.2

North Texas at Rice (7:30 p.m., ESPNU)

Rice, like Temple, has been a pleasant surprise at 5-5 in Scott Abell’s inaugural season. Their option offense has shown flashes of potential, but the defense is inconsistent. North Texas’s explosive offense, featuring potential 4,000-yard passer Drew Mestemaker and 1,000-yard rusher Caleb Hawkins, is expected to possess superior firepower. An upset in this contest would be considered a significant shock.

Current line: UNT -18.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 21.7 | FPI projection: UNT by 16.5

Week 13 Upset Watch: A Statistical Perspective

Examining the four games from the "Keeping playoff hopes alive" section, SP+ projections indicate a 44% chance that No. 13 Miami (93% probability at Virginia Tech), No. 12 Utah (86% vs. Kansas State), No. 14 Vanderbilt (76% vs. Kentucky), and No. 18 Michigan (72% at Maryland) all secure victories. This suggests a notable statistical probability for at least one of these favored playoff contenders to be upset, potentially altering the playoff landscape.

Week 13 Featured Matchups

Friday

Florida State at NC State (8 p.m., ESPN): Following a bye week after upsetting Georgia Tech, NC State delivered a 41-7 loss to Miami. Florida State has shown inconsistency, overachieving by 12.5 points per game at home against SP+ projections and underachieving by 18.0 PPG on the road. The outcome will depend on which version of these teams takes the field.
- Current line: FSU -4.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 8.5 | FPI projection: FSU by 5.0
Hawai’i at UNLV (10:30 p.m., FS1): With Boise State’s struggles in the absence of quarterback Maddux Madsen, the Mountain West race is tightly contested, with five teams tied for second at 4-2 behind 5-1 San Diego State. This late Friday night matchup between two of these teams is anticipated to be a high-scoring affair, with UNLV scoring 30+ points in nine of ten games and Hawai’i in five straight.
- Current line: UNLV -2.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 4.8 | FPI projection: UNLV by 6.1

Early Saturday

Baylor at Arizona (1 p.m., TNT): After losing three of four midseason, Arizona has won three consecutive games to reach 7-3. The Wildcats have shown dramatic improvement from 2024, rising from 90th to 30th in offensive SP+ and from 84th to 39th on defense. This improvement should provide an advantage against a Baylor team that primarily relies on its offense.
- Current line: Arizona -6.5 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 9.1 | FPI projection: Arizona by 4.8
Kansas at Iowa State (noon, FS1): This game is projected to be a close contest, which bodes poorly for Kansas, who have lost nine of their last 11 one-score games. Iowa State, conversely, has a history of success in close games, winning 11 of 16 since an earlier 1-12 one-score run. Kansas, at 5-5 with Utah next week, likely needs this win for bowl eligibility.
- Current line: ISU -4.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 4.7 | FPI projection: ISU by 3.4
Minnesota at Northwestern (noon, BTN): Minnesota exhibits a similar home/away split to Florida State, overachieving by 5.4 PPG at home and underachieving by 16.6 PPG on the road against SP+ projections. Northwestern nearly upset Michigan last week and returns to Wrigley Field. If Minnesota performs to its potential, the game could be evenly matched, but road performance has been a concern.
- Current line: NU -3.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: NU by 1.7 | FPI projection: NU by 3.7
Rutgers at No. 1 Ohio State (noon, Fox): Ohio State is projected to win comfortably, shifting focus to potential insights into their team. The Buckeyes’ passing game had a relatively subdued performance recently, and the status of injured receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate remains uncertain. This could offer an opportunity to observe Julian Sayin’s resourcefulness.
- Current line: OSU -31.5 (down from -33.5) | SP+ projection: OSU by 31.5 | FPI projection: OSU by 28.4

Saturday Afternoon

Arkansas at No. 17 Texas (3:30 p.m., ABC): The renewal of the Horns-Hogs rivalry is a significant event with Texas’s entry into the SEC. After a less eventful matchup last season, anticipation is high for an unpredictable game. Arkansas’s offense is capable of challenging most teams, and Texas linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. is listed as questionable. Texas’s response to last week’s loss to Georgia will be closely watched.
- Current line: UT -8.5 (down from -10.5) | SP+ projection: UT by 9.8 | FPI projection: UT by 11.2
East Carolina at UTSA (3:30 p.m., ESPN+): East Carolina has achieved a 10-4 record since Mike Houston was replaced by Blake Harrell in mid-2024. At 5-1 in American Conference play, the Pirates remain in the conference title race. UTSA’s performance has been erratic, overachieving against SP+ projections by at least 12 points three times and underachieving by at least 10 points five times.
- Current line: ECU -2.5 | SP+ projection: ECU by 5.5 | FPI projection: ECU by 3.2
Duke at North Carolina (3:30 p.m., ACCN): Since an impressive win over Clemson, Duke has struggled defensively, losing two consecutive games. The 5-5 Blue Devils require a win against either UNC or Wake Forest for bowl eligibility, with this game appearing to be the more favorable opportunity. UNC recently lost to Wake Forest and may lack the offensive consistency to exploit Duke’s struggling defense.
- Current line: Duke -6.5 | SP+ projection: Duke by 6.6 | FPI projection: Duke by 7.2
TCU at No. 23 Houston (4 p.m., Fox): Houston’s 8-2 record is partly attributed to success in close games (4-0 in one-score finishes). They have an opportunity for a 10-win season and could benefit from TCU’s offensive decline over the past three games. The 6-4 Horned Frogs have underperformed against projections for five consecutive games.
- Current line: Houston -1.5 | SP+ projection: Houston by 2.8 | FPI projection: TCU by 0.7
Jacksonville State at Florida International (3:30 p.m., CBSSN): FIU has won two consecutive games to reach 5-5, with an improving offense led by efficient running back Kejon Owens and big plays from wide receiver Alex Perry. Jacksonville State has won 14 of 15 CUSA games dating back to last season, with running back Cam Cook ranking second nationally in rushing yards. This matchup has the potential for significant offensive fireworks.
- Current line: JSU -1.5 (flipped from FIU -1.5) | SP+ projection: JSU by 3.9 | FPI projection: JSU by 1.1
Missouri State at Kennesaw State (2 p.m., ESPN+): Missouri State has won five consecutive games, achieving a 7-3 record in their FBS debut. While ineligible for the CUSA championship game, Kennesaw State needs an immediate rebound after last week’s loss to Jacksonville State to maintain title hopes. The battle between MSU quarterback Jacob Clark and Kennesaw State corners Caleb Offord and JeRico Washington Jr. is a key matchup.
- Current line: KSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: KSU by 6.9 | FPI projection: KSU by 4.2
Syracuse at No. 9 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., NBC): Notre Dame is projected as a favorite of at least 31 points in its final two games, positioning them for a 10-2 finish and a CFP berth. Their primary statistical concerns are occasional negative run plays and conceding big pass plays. Syracuse is not anticipated to exploit these issues.
- Current line: Irish -35.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 33.3 | FPI projection: Irish by 30.1

Saturday Evening

No. 20 Tennessee at Florida (7:30 p.m., ABC): Two years ago, Tennessee lost in Gainesville as a 5.5-point favorite. The Volunteers have secured only two victories in Gainesville in the past 50 years. While the stakes for CFP contention are low, with Tennessee largely eliminated and Florida holding a losing record, a victory in "The Swamp" remains a significant achievement for the Volunteers.
- Current line: UT -4.5 | SP+ projection: UT by 9.4 | FPI projection: UT by 3.7
Nebraska at Penn State (7 p.m., NBC): Since a two-game collapse, Penn State has performed strongly, nearly defeating Iowa and Indiana, competing with Ohio State for a half, and dominating Michigan State. The 4-6 Nittany Lions aim to keep their bowl hopes alive against Nebraska, led by new quarterback TJ Lateef under head coach Matt Rhule.
- Current line: PSU -8.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 7.0 | FPI projection: PSU by 5.3
No. 21 Illinois at Wisconsin (7:30 p.m., BTN): Wisconsin’s defense has performed well in recent weeks, and Illinois’s defense showed improvement two weeks ago after a challenging stretch. This matchup is expected to be a classic Big Ten West contest, particularly with a forecast of 44-degree temperatures and clouds.
- Current line: Illini -7.5 (down from -9.5) | SP+ projection: Illini by 16.6 | FPI projection: Illini by 6.0
Cal at Stanford (7:30 p.m., ACCN): Since 2001, the favored team in this rivalry has a 21-3 record, suggesting a potential for an unexpected outcome. Stanford appears to be improving. Cal freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has shown varied performances, from a 2