Vergil Ortiz vs. Erickson Lubin fight predictions, odds, start time in Fort Worth

The fight marks another significant step in Ortiz’s career following a challenging period sidelined by rhabdomyolysis, a muscle disorder that kept him out of the ring from August 2022 to January 2024. Prior to this hiatus, Ortiz had established himself as a formidable force at welterweight, accumulating regional titles while searching for opportunities against top-tier opponents.

Upon his return, Ortiz moved up to the junior middleweight division, where he secured quick victories against Fredrick Lawson and Thomas Dulorme, both via first-round knockouts. These wins served as tune-up fights before facing a series of more challenging opponents, a strategy often avoided by fighters carefully managing their ascent to a title shot.

Ortiz’s recent performances have demonstrated his resilience and adaptability. His fight against Serhii Bohachuk, who had previously defeated Brian Mendoza, proved to be a pivotal moment. Ortiz was knocked down twice but rallied to secure a majority decision victory, showcasing his ability to overcome adversity and fight through difficult circumstances.

Following the Bohachuk fight, Ortiz faced Israil Madrimov, who had previously given Terence Crawford, considered one of the sport’s pound-for-pound best, a tough fight, losing a narrow decision. Ortiz took several rounds to decipher Madrimov’s unorthodox style but ultimately secured a decision win with wider margins than Crawford, further solidifying his reputation as a top contender.

Erickson Lubin represents another significant hurdle in Ortiz’s quest for a world title shot. Lubin’s only two professional defeats came against Jermell Charlo and Sebastian Fundora, both of whom have held world championships. His fight against Fundora in 2022 was a contender for Fight of the Year, highlighting Lubin’s propensity for engaging in thrilling, high-stakes battles.

Lubin’s recent activity has been limited. Since a controversial decision victory over Jesus Ramos in 2023, he has only fought once, defeating Ardreal Holmes Jr. in May. This relative inactivity raises questions about his current form and readiness for a fighter of Ortiz’s caliber.

A victory over Lubin would significantly enhance Ortiz’s chances of securing a world title opportunity. Ortiz’s team had previously pursued a fight against WBO champion Xander Zayas, but negotiations fell through, leading to the Lubin matchup. Zayas is now scheduled to face WBA titlist Abass Baraou in a unification bout on January 31, potentially setting the stage for Ortiz to challenge the unified champion sometime in mid-2026.

The undercard for the event features several matchups in the middleweight and super middleweight divisions, showcasing fighters looking to climb the divisional ranks. Darius Fulghum will face David Stevens at 168 pounds. Fulghum suffered his first professional defeat in his last fight against Bektemir Melikuziev in May, ending his previous streak of 14 consecutive wins. Additionally, cruiserweights Robin Sirwan Safar and Derick Miller Jr. are set to compete. Safar, an undefeated prospect with an 18-0 record and 13 knockouts, secured the biggest win of his career in May 2024 with a decision victory over former light heavyweight champion Sergey Kovalev.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the odds for the main event favor Ortiz, reflecting his status as the perceived stronger fighter.

Lubin presents a legitimate challenge to Ortiz, possessing both power and skill. However, Ortiz is widely regarded as the more complete fighter. His recent fights have demonstrated his ability to overcome adversity and adapt to different styles. The fight against Bohachuk showed his resilience, while the fight against Madrimov proved his ability to handle unorthodox opponents.

Lubin’s past defeats against Charlo and Fundora, both by stoppage, suggest that Ortiz has the potential to secure a similar victory. While Ortiz’s two most recent fights have gone to decision, this matchup could provide an opportunity for him to return to his knockout ways.

Vergil Ortiz Jr.’s journey from a sidelined prospect to a potential world title challenger continues against Erickson Lubin, a fighter who has consistently tested top-level opposition. The fight in Fort Worth will not only showcase Ortiz’s skills and resilience but also determine his trajectory in the competitive junior middleweight division. The outcome will have significant implications for the future of the division and Ortiz’s pursuit of a world championship.