Vegas Opens 2026 NASCAR Cup Championship Futures: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin Emerge as Early Favorites

As the echoes of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season finale fade, the spotlight is already beginning to shift towards the 2026 campaign, with sportsbooks releasing their initial futures odds for the championship. BetMGM has positioned two of the sport’s most consistent performers, Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin, as the co-favorites to hoist the Bill France Cup in 2026, both listed at +500.

The release of these early odds comes amidst a period of significant anticipation and speculation regarding the future format of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. While the exact structure for 2026 remains undecided – with discussions ranging from an evolution of the current elimination-style format and an extended final round, to a potential return to a season-long points system or even a decade-long playoff structure – oddsmakers are proceeding with their assessments based on current team strengths and driver pedigrees.

Kyle Larson, fresh off his second Cup Series championship, enters 2026 with undeniable momentum. His 2024 title marked another dominant season for the Hendrick Motorsports driver, solidifying his status as one of NASCAR’s premier talents. Denny Hamlin, a perennial contender and the 2025 championship runner-up according to the sportsbook’s projection, also commands respect. Hamlin’s consistent presence at the front of the field and his ability to contend for championships year after year make him a logical choice for early favoritism.

The remaining members of the 2024 Championship 4 also feature prominently in the initial odds. William Byron, who secured his maiden Cup Series title in 2024, is listed at +600, reflecting his strong performance and the continued investment by Hendrick Motorsports in his program. Chase Briscoe, a consistent threat in the Championship 4, is given odds of +1000, indicating a belief in his potential to challenge for the title, particularly with his continued development at Stewart-Haas Racing.

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A notable entry on the early favorites list is 19-year-old phenom Connor Zilisch, who is slated for his first full-time Cup Series season in 2026 with Trackhouse Racing. Zilisch’s inclusion at +1000, placing him on par with Briscoe and ahead of established veteran teammate Ross Chastain (+2500), signals a significant level of optimism from oddsmakers regarding his immediate impact. Zilisch has demonstrated considerable talent in various racing disciplines, and his rapid ascent suggests a bright future in NASCAR’s top tier.

Joey Logano, a three-time Cup Series champion and the most decorated active full-time driver, is set at +1600. Logano has a notable history of success in even-numbered years, having clinched titles in 2018, 2022, and 2024. Should this trend continue, his odds could prove attractive to bettors looking for value. His experience and proven championship-winning ability at Team Penske remain significant assets.

Other drivers finding their names on the futures board include Carson Hocevar at +3000. This positioning places him ahead of several notable competitors, including Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Ty Gibbs, and RFK Racing’s Chris Buescher. Hocevar, a rising talent, has shown flashes of speed and potential in his limited Cup Series starts, and his odds suggest oddsmakers see him as a dark horse candidate.

Former champions Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski are both listed at +5000. For these highly experienced veterans, any genuine championship contention in 2026 would represent a significant turnaround and a testament to their enduring skill. Both drivers have achieved immense success throughout their careers, and their current odds reflect a longer shot at a title compared to the younger or more recently dominant drivers.

Rounding out the initial offerings, 2025 Rookie of the Year contender Shane van Gisbergen is given odds of +25000, placing him among a group of 13 drivers with the longest odds to win the 2026 championship. Van Gisbergen, a multiple Supercars champion from New Zealand, has shown remarkable adaptability and speed in his limited NASCAR appearances, but the sportsbook indicates a significant uphill battle for him to reach championship status in his second full season.

The release of these early futures odds by BetMGM provides a fascinating, albeit speculative, glimpse into the perceived pecking order for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season. As the sport continues to evolve, and as teams and drivers refine their strategies and equipment, these odds are subject to change. However, they offer an initial benchmark for assessing the perceived strengths and potential championship contenders heading into an uncertain but highly anticipated future.

The dynamic nature of the NASCAR Cup Series means that significant shifts in performance and fortunes are always possible between seasons. Factors such as driver development, crew chief changes, manufacturer support, and unexpected breakthroughs from underfunded teams can all dramatically alter the landscape of championship contention. Furthermore, the ultimate decision on the 2026 playoff format will undoubtedly play a crucial role in how teams strategize and position themselves throughout the season.

For now, the conversation begins with Larson and Hamlin at the forefront, followed by a strong contingent of championship-caliber drivers. The inclusion of young talents like Zilisch, and the long odds for seasoned champions like Busch and Keselowski, highlight the perennial cycle of renewal and established dominance that defines the NASCAR Cup Series. Bettors and fans alike will be watching closely as the 2025 season unfolds, providing further data points to refine these early predictions for the 2026 championship pursuit.