UFC Vegas 111: Bonfim-Brown Main Event Leads Understated Card at APEX

UFC Vegas 111, scheduled for Saturday, November 8, at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, marks another event in the ongoing countdown to the conclusion of the ESPN broadcast era for the Ultimate Fighting Championship. The card, largely flying under the mainstream radar, presents a series of intriguing matchups for dedicated mixed martial arts enthusiasts, culminating in a welterweight headliner between Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown.

The main event featuring Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown was not initially slated for headlining duties. Bonfim was reportedly set to compete on a UFC Rio card, benefiting from a home-country advantage. However, scheduling demands for a respectable conclusion to the APEX event prompted the elevation of this welterweight contest.

Gabriel Bonfim (16-0), who entered the professional ranks with an unblemished 15-0 record, faces a significant test of his contender status. His most recent outing in July saw him secure a narrow split decision victory over veteran Stephen Thompson, a result that drew considerable scrutiny and debate within the MMA community, with many observers contending that Thompson had done enough to win. This contentious win, despite preserving Bonfim’s undefeated streak, has placed increased pressure on the young Brazilian grappler to unequivocally demonstrate his capabilities as a legitimate threat in the welterweight division. Bonfim’s A-plus grappling remains his most potent weapon, a skill that has propelled him through his early career.

Opposing him is Randy Brown (18-5), a seasoned UFC campaigner making his 21st appearance inside the Octagon. At 35 years old, "Rudeboy" has carved out a reputation as a dependable, consistent, and often exciting fighter. While he has frequently found himself within the fringes of the top 15 welterweight rankings, a definitive push into title contention has thus far eluded him. Brown possesses notable size and speed for the division, coupled with a historically solid defensive grappling game, which will be crucial in neutralizing Bonfim’s primary threat.

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The five-round format of the main event introduces a significant variable. Bonfim’s prior contest against Thompson raised questions regarding his cardio in extended fights, particularly during the later stages. The final five minutes of the Thompson bout saw Bonfim appear to fatigue, relying on a single takedown and uneventful top control to secure the decision. This raises the prospect that if the fight extends beyond the championship rounds, Brown, with his experience and durability, could exploit any potential stamina issues. Brown’s ability to evade early submission attempts will be paramount; should he survive the initial two rounds, the momentum of the fight could shift decisively in his favor, allowing him to pick apart Bonfim in the later stages. Despite Bonfim’s elite grappling, the analysis leans towards Brown’s experience and potential cardio advantage to secure a victory, completing what some argue Stephen Thompson initiated.

Pick: Randy Brown

The genuine co-main event of the evening features a flyweight bout between Matt Schnell and Joseph Morales. Joseph Morales (12-2), fresh off his victory in The Ultimate Fighter 33, is making his return to the UFC with a clear narrative of redemption. His TUF championship run has reinvigorated his career, positioning him as a fighter with significant momentum.

Matt Schnell (16-8, 1 NC), a veteran of the flyweight division, has demonstrated remarkable resilience throughout his UFC tenure. Despite appearing to be on the brink of departure from the promotion since 2022, "Danger" has consistently found ways to secure victories and maintain his roster spot. His most recent win came against Jimmy Flick, a fighter who briefly retired in 2021, underscoring Schnell’s ability to capitalize on specific matchups. However, the context of Morales’s return and his TUF championship suggests a potential showcase opportunity for the returning fighter. Morales possesses the tools, including formidable ground-and-pound and submission prowess, to potentially overwhelm Schnell. This matchup is perceived by some as a pivotal moment, symbolizing a potential passing of the torch in the flyweight division.

Pick: Joseph Morales

A compelling middleweight clash pits Muslim Salikhov against Uros Medic. Uros Medic (9-2), known for his heavy hands and aggressive, high-chin striking style, has never seen a fight go to the scorecards, a testament to his finishing ability. However, this aggressive approach often leaves him susceptible to incoming strikes.

Facing Medic is Muslim Salikhov (19-4), aptly nicknamed "The King of Kung Fu," renowned for his precise and powerful striking. This matchup, an unexpected pairing, promises fireworks. Medic’s tendency to absorb significant strikes presents a clear target for Salikhov’s calculated attacks. While Medic’s raw power and early speed could give him an advantage, leading to a potential early finish, the prevailing logic suggests that Salikhov’s technical striking and ability to capitalize on defensive lapses will prove decisive. Salikhov is expected to exploit Medic’s lackluster defense, although the unpredictable nature of Medic’s power always looms as an upset factor.

Pick: Muslim Salikhov

The lightweight division offers a tactical striking battle between Chris Padilla and Ismael Bonfim. This bout, however, is overshadowed by Ismael Bonfim (20-4) missing weight by a substantial five pounds, incurring a 25 percent purse deduction. Such a significant weight miss can often indicate a difficult weight cut, potentially impacting a fighter’s performance and endurance on fight night.

Despite the weight discrepancy, the matchmakers have paired two tactically sound strikers known for their volume and explosive offense. Chris Padilla (15-6, 1 NC), known as "Taco," is considered the slightly more unorthodox of the two, employing unique angles and varied attacks. Bonfim, conversely, is recognized for his capacity to land a single, fight-ending blow. The scoring in this contest is likely to hinge on which fighter accumulates more "big moments" rather than overwhelming their opponent with sustained pressure. Padilla’s ability to throw "off-speed" strikes, catching opponents off guard, is anticipated to garner the judges’ attention. Coupled with the potential performance detriment from Bonfim’s problematic weight cut, Padilla is favored to secure a decision victory.

Pick: Chris Padilla by points

The opening bout of the main card features a middleweight encounter between Christian Leroy Duncan and Marco Tulio, a fight anticipated to be either a highlight-reel opener or a contentious affair. Marco Tulio (10-3), nicknamed "Matuto," brings an intensely aggressive style to the cage. He relentlessly searches for openings, unleashing powerful right hands and incorporating head kicks without apprehension regarding potential takedowns. His track record suggests an exciting, action-packed contest.

Christian Leroy Duncan (9-1), "CLD," possesses a more deliberate approach. While capable of executing beautiful and technical striking techniques, he can sometimes be slow to initiate exchanges. Historically, however, Duncan is willing to engage when an opponent actively presses the action, leading to optimism that Tulio’s aggression will draw out Duncan’s best performance. Duncan boasts a solid defensive record, having never been finished in his professional career. Nevertheless, the prediction favors Tulio’s headhunting style to force Duncan into a brawl, potentially leading to Duncan being overwhelmed rather than thriving in the chaotic exchanges.

Pick: Marco Tulio

Event Logistics:
UFC Vegas 111 is scheduled for Saturday, November 8, at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. The event will commence with a seven-fight preliminary card at 4 p.m. ET, available on ESPN and ESPN+. The five-fight main card will follow at 7 p.m. ET, also broadcast on ESPN and ESPN+.

Preliminary Card Predictions:

The preliminary card offers a series of competitive matchups across various divisions. In a bantamweight contest, Hyder Amil (10-2), a rising prospect with a strong grappling base, is predicted to defeat Jamall Emmers (19-6), a veteran known for his durable striking, likely via decision. Raoni Barcelos (17-5), a powerful striker and grappler, is favored to overcome Ricky Simon (20-4), a relentless wrestler and former ranked bantamweight, in what promises to be a high-paced affair.

In the women’s bantamweight division, Jacqueline Cavalcanti (6-1), currently ranked No. 10 in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings, is projected to defeat Mayra Bueno Silva (10-3-1, 1 NC), who has recently challenged for the title. Cavalcanti’s striking and defensive prowess are expected to be key. The heavyweight bout between Josh Hokit (11-3) and Max Gimenis (16-3) is predicted to go to Hokit, whose wrestling background often proves challenging for opponents.

Denise Gomes (8-2), a dynamic strawweight, is favored to defeat Tecia Pennington (13-7), ranked No. 14, leveraging her aggressive style and striking volume. Miles Johns (13-2), known for his powerful striking, is anticipated to emerge victorious against Daniel Marcos (15-1), an undefeated prospect looking to make a statement in the bantamweight division. Finally, in a middleweight clash, Jackson McVey (9-2) is predicted to defeat Zachary Reese (6-1), with McVey’s well-rounded skillset providing the edge.