UFC Qatar: Contender Showdowns Set to Shape Future Divisional Landscapes

Doha, Qatar – The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is set to host a pivotal Fight Night event in Qatar this Saturday, November 22nd, at the Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena. While only one pay-per-view remains on the annual calendar, the outcomes of UFC Qatar are anticipated to significantly influence the promotion’s strategic plans and title picture heading into 2026. The card features two headlining bouts with direct implications for number one contender status, alongside a roster of intriguing matchups.

In the main event, top lightweight contender Arman Tsarukyan (19-3, 1 NC) is scheduled to defend his standing against the formidable Dan Hooker (23-12). In the co-main event, former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad (23-3, 1 NC) faces the undefeated prospect Ian Machado Garry (14-0) in a critical matchup for the 170-pound division. Impressive performances from any of these four athletes could solidify their claim to a shot at divisional gold.

The event raises fundamental questions regarding the requirements for securing a title shot. For Tsarukyan, will a methodical decision victory over Hooker suffice to maintain his position, or must he deliver a dominant, definitive performance to demonstrate a clear separation from the rest of the lightweight contenders? Conversely, could a knockout victory elevate Hooker past other contenders in the queue? In the welterweight division, is Muhammad merely one win away from re-entering the title picture, or does he need to demonstrate a higher level of performance to impress matchmakers? For Garry, the challenge is to establish himself as a clear frontrunner in a highly competitive division.

Beyond the headlining acts, the card also marks the much-anticipated return of Japanese lighter-weight legend Kyoji Horiguchi (32-5) to the UFC. Additionally, veteran Jack Hermansson (23-8) embarks on a new chapter by venturing down to the welterweight division for the first time, and heavyweight Waldo Cortes-Acosta (11-1) makes an astonishing fifth fight appearance of 2025 on just three days’ notice.

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Event Details:

Event: UFC Qatar
Venue: Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena, Doha, Qatar
Date: Saturday, November 22nd
Broadcast: The eight-fight preliminary card is scheduled to commence at 10 a.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the six-fight main card at 1 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Main Card Predictions and Analysis:

Arman Tsarukyan (Lightweight, #2 P4P-14) vs. Dan Hooker (Lightweight, #7)

This lightweight clash presents a classic grappler-versus-striker dynamic with significant title implications. Arman Tsarukyan, widely regarded as one of the most promising contenders in the lightweight division, possesses a wrestling-heavy style that has proven incredibly effective throughout his career. His only UFC loss came in a closely contested bout against current champion Islam Makhachev, a testament to his high-level grappling and tenacity. Tsarukyan’s approach to victory will likely involve leveraging his superior wrestling to control the fight on the ground, limiting Hooker’s opportunities to unleash his dangerous striking. While Hooker is known for his strong takedown defense and resilience, Tsarukyan’s grappling prowess is considered to be near the elite level, making consistent takedowns a plausible strategy.

Dan Hooker, known as "The Hangman," is a seasoned veteran celebrated for his aggressive Muay Thai striking, exceptional durability, and willingness to engage in high-paced wars. His ability to finish fights with powerful combinations poses a constant threat, and any misstep from Tsarukyan in the striking exchanges could be capitalized upon. Hooker’s recent record includes wins over formidable opponents, demonstrating his continued relevance in the division. For Hooker to secure an upset and leapfrog contenders, a decisive finish would be paramount.

The strategic imperative for Tsarukyan is to dictate the terms of engagement. While a grinding decision win through wrestling control would preserve his ranking, the UFC often favors more emphatic performances for title contention. Hooker, conversely, will aim to keep the fight standing, utilizing his reach and striking volume to wear down Tsarukyan and potentially secure a knockout. The contest is expected to be a high-stakes chess match between two distinct fighting philosophies.

Prediction: Tsarukyan via Decision

Reasoning: Tsarukyan’s wrestling is expected to be the deciding factor, allowing him to control portions of the fight and neutralize Hooker’s striking. However, Hooker’s toughness and striking ability will make securing a finish a challenging task for Tsarukyan. The impact of a decision win on Tsarukyan’s title shot trajectory remains uncertain given the fluid nature of the UFC’s future plans.

Belal Muhammad (Welterweight, #3 P4P-11) vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, #6)

The co-main event features a crucial welterweight matchup between the highly-ranked veteran Belal Muhammad and the surging undefeated prospect Ian Machado Garry. Muhammad enters this bout on an impressive run, having not lost in his last ten outings, including nine wins and one no-contest. His fighting style is characterized by a relentless pace, strong wrestling, and increasingly refined boxing, often referred to as "Cormier wrestling" for its pressure and control, and "Canelo hands" for his improved striking accuracy. However, questions have been raised about his ability to consistently deliver definitive finishes, a factor that can sometimes influence title shot considerations. His last performance against Jack Della Maddalena, while a victory, saw him rely heavily on striking, which may not be his optimal approach against every opponent.

Ian Machado Garry, "The Future," has quickly ascended the welterweight ranks with an unblemished 14-0 professional record. Known for his confident demeanor, dynamic striking, and effective use of his physical attributes, Garry represents the new generation of welterweight talent. A victory over a top-tier contender like Muhammad would be a significant milestone in his career, potentially catapulting him into immediate title contention. He has expressed clear intentions to finish Muhammad and cement his claim as a number one contender.

The stylistic clash is compelling: Muhammad’s well-rounded, high-pressure attack against Garry’s striking prowess and youthful dynamism. For Muhammad, success will likely depend on him effectively mixing his martial arts disciplines, incorporating his wrestling to disrupt Garry’s rhythm and impose his will. Should he rely solely on striking, he risks playing into Garry’s strengths. For Garry, the challenge is to navigate Muhammad’s veteran experience and relentless pace while showcasing his offensive capabilities. The outcome will have profound implications for the welterweight title picture.

Prediction: Muhammad via Decision

Reasoning: Despite Garry’s undeniable talent and momentum, Muhammad’s extensive experience, well-rounded skill set, and ability to grind out victories are expected to be the deciding factors. His ability to blend wrestling and striking, if fully utilized, should allow him to control key moments of the fight and withstand Garry’s offensive surges.

Volkan Oezdemir (Light Heavyweight, #12) vs. Alonzo Menifield

This light heavyweight contest pits the powerful striking of Volkan Oezdemir against Alonzo Menifield. Volkan Oezdemir, a former title challenger, is renowned for his "No Time" fighting philosophy, often securing swift knockout victories once he identifies an opening. His style relies on precise, concussive blows, and he typically takes a short period to gauge his opponent before unleashing his offense. Oezdemir’s recent record indicates a mixed bag, highlighting both his finishing power and vulnerability to top contenders.

Alonzo Menifield possesses significant knockout power but has, at times, demonstrated a hesitation to fully commit to his offense in recent fights. This cautious approach could play directly into Oezdemir’s hands, allowing the Swiss fighter the necessary time to read Menifield’s movements and set up his powerful combinations. Menifield’s defense and agility will be crucial in avoiding Oezdemir’s initial onslaught. While there is a possibility for this fight to become a prolonged, tactical affair, Menifield’s natural inclination to seek a finish could ultimately create openings for Oezdemir.

Prediction: Oezdemir via Knockout

Reasoning: Oezdemir’s ability to capitalize on any hesitation or defensive lapses, combined with Menifield’s historical susceptibility to KOs, suggests that Oezdemir will find an opportunity to land a fight-ending strike once he gets his timing.

Jack Hermansson (Middleweight) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight)

Veteran middleweight Jack Hermansson makes a notable and somewhat surprising move down to the welterweight division for this bout against Myktybek Orolbai. Hermansson, "The Joker," has built his career on a grappling-heavy, pressure-based style in the 185-pound division. A significant weight cut of 15 pounds at this stage of his career raises questions about its potential impact on his performance, durability, and cardio. While he reportedly made weight without issue, the long-term effects of such a cut can be unpredictable for a fighter of his experience.

Myktybek Orolbai is also making a permanent move to welterweight after experiencing difficulties consistently making the lightweight limit. Orolbai is a durable and well-rounded fighter who is expected to benefit significantly from competing in a more natural weight class. He is known for his aggressive pace and willingness to push the action. Orolbai will likely test Hermansson’s new weight class by applying early pressure, aiming to gauge any impact the weight cut may have had on Hermansson’s stamina and strength. Hermansson, in turn, will look to utilize his reach and technical advantages to manage distance and avoid being drawn into a brawl.

Prediction: Orolbai via Decision

Reasoning: Orolbai’s natural fit at welterweight and his aggressive, durable style are expected to pose significant challenges for Hermansson, who is undergoing a risky career transition. The cumulative effects of the weight cut, combined with Orolbai’s relentless pace, are likely to favor the younger fighter over three rounds.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, #8) vs. Shamil Gaziev

This heavyweight clash presents a unique scenario, with Waldo Cortes-Acosta stepping into the octagon on just three days’ notice, having fought only three weeks prior. Cortes-Acosta, known for his charismatic "Salsa Boy" persona and sometimes unorthodox movement, has had an incredibly active 2025. His last fight involved a controversial sequence where a referee intervention saved him from a potential knockout following an eye poke. Taking a fifth fight in a calendar year, especially on such short notice, highlights his commitment but also raises questions about potential fatigue.

He faces Shamil Gaziev, an undefeated prospect known for his powerful right hand and willingness to engage in grappling exchanges. Gaziev represents a significant step up in competition for Cortes-Acosta on such short preparation. Gaziev’s raw power could pose a major threat, and his grappling capabilities offer an alternative path to victory if striking exchanges prove difficult. However, Cortes-Acosta’s unconventional movement and resilience could present an adjustment period for Gaziev, who has primarily faced less experienced opposition.

Prediction: Cortes-Acosta via Decision

Reasoning: While conventional wisdom might favor the fresher, undefeated Gaziev, Cortes-Acosta’s remarkable activity, unorthodox style, and demonstrated ability to perform under pressure and on short notice are factors that could lead to an upset. His resilience and unique movement may frustrate Gaziev, allowing Cortes-Acosta to secure enough rounds for a decision victory.

Tagir Ulanbekov (Flyweight) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (Flyweight, #4)

The flyweight division welcomes back one of its most accomplished figures as Kyoji Horiguchi makes his highly anticipated return to the UFC. Horiguchi, a former RIZIN and Bellator champion, has been widely considered one of the best lighter-weight fighters globally for the past decade. He possesses exceptional speed, diverse striking, and a remarkable ability to escape and counter from difficult positions, exemplified by his two victories over the larger Darrion Caldwell in Bellator. His finishing ability, often overlooked, is a significant asset.

He faces Tagir Ulanbekov, a highly-regarded flyweight known for his strong grappling and control. Ulanbekov is a formidable opponent, often seen as a dark horse in the division, potentially just one or two wins away from challenging for a top-five spot. He is expected to have a size advantage over Horiguchi and will likely seek to implement a grappling-heavy game plan, aiming to control Horiguchi on the mat.

This matchup is a stern test for Horiguchi’s UFC comeback, with many observers noting the stylistic challenges Ulanbekov presents. However, Horiguchi’s extensive experience against top-tier competition, including larger opponents, and his uncanny ability to create offense from defensive positions, position him well for this return. His speed and veteran savvy are expected to be crucial in navigating Ulanbekov’s grappling and creating opportunities for his own offense.

Prediction: Horiguchi via Knockout

Reasoning: Despite Ulanbekov’s undeniable skill and grappling threat, Horiguchi’s elite speed, striking precision, and experience in high-stakes bouts are anticipated to make the difference. His ability to work out of bad positions and his often-underestimated finishing power could lead to a surprising knockout victory in his UFC return.

Preliminary Card Predictions: