Ali Akbar Rosady
The Ultimate Fighting Championship is set to descend upon Sydney, Australia, this Saturday, with UFC 325 promising a thrilling night of mixed martial arts action from the iconic Qudos Bank Arena. The main card is scheduled to commence at 9 p.m. ET, with live streaming available exclusively on Paramount+. All eyes will be on the highly anticipated main event: a featherweight championship rematch between the reigning two-time champion, Alexander Volkanovski, and the surging challenger, Diego Lopes.
Volkanovski (27-4), a national hero fighting on home soil, enters the contest as a -148 favorite, meaning a $148 wager would yield a $100 profit. His challenger, the No. 2-ranked featherweight Diego Lopes (27-7), is listed as the +124 underdog, offering a $124 return on a $100 bet. The betting lines reflect a close contest, a testament to the competitive nature of their first encounter.
The co-main event features a compelling lightweight clash between No. 6-ranked Dan Hooker (+295) and No. 8-ranked Benoit Saint-Denis (-375), adding further depth to a stacked card. Before placing any wagers on these pivotal matchups, fight enthusiasts and bettors are advised to consult the comprehensive MMA predictions and expert betting advice generated by Mike McClure’s acclaimed computer model.
McClure’s model is renowned for its analytical rigor, simulating each fight an astounding 10,000 times. This sophisticated process meticulously breaks down every round, dynamically adjusting win probabilities based on a multitude of factors. These include detailed fighter attributes, round-by-round finish calculations accounting for knockout (KO) and submission timing, accumulating damage factors that elevate the likelihood of a late-round stoppage, and individual fighter-specific finishing tendencies – distinguishing between power punchers, submission grapplers, and decision specialists.
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The predictive power of this model has been rigorously backtested against more than 500 fights contested between 2023 and 2025, demonstrating an impressive track record with over 18 units of profit and a significant 6.1% Return on Investment (ROI) for UFC betting. The model also commenced the new era of UFC on Paramount+ with immediate success, accurately predicting Justin Gaethje to win outright at +195 odds and the Over in total rounds for the main event at UFC 324. With its proven methodology, the model has meticulously analyzed the Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 rematch from every conceivable angle, revealing its top betting picks and best bets, available for review on SportsLine.
For new users looking to engage with UFC 325 betting, DraftKings offers a compelling promotion: a $300 bonus in bets if their initial wager wins. Similarly, FanDuel provides new users with an opportunity to receive $200 in bonus bets instantly if their qualifying $5 bet is successful. These offers provide an accessible entry point for fans interested in the betting aspect of the event.
UFC Now on Paramount+: An Unprecedented Viewing Experience
The landscape of UFC broadcasting has shifted dramatically, with Pay-Per-View now a thing of the past for numbered events. Paramount+ subscribers can now stream every UFC numbered event and UFC Fight Night live, at no additional cost, transforming the viewing experience for fans. Beyond the live action, the platform also hosts an extensive library of pre-fight docuseries, full-length replays of past fights, and an archive stretching back years, providing an all-encompassing hub for UFC content. This move effectively eliminates the traditional Pay-Per-View barrier, making high-quality MMA content more accessible than ever before.
Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2: A Deep Dive into the Championship Rematch
The main event pits two elite featherweights against each other in a highly anticipated rematch that carries significant implications for the division.
Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski, at 36 years old, holds the distinction of being the first Australian-born fighter to claim UFC gold and is also the oldest featherweight champion in UFC history. His reign at the top has been legendary, culminating in him topping the promotion’s pound-for-pound rankings in both 2022 and 2023. For a significant period, Volkanovski maintained an astounding 11-fight winning streak within the featherweight division, showcasing unparalleled dominance.
While his recent record stands at 2-3 over his last five bouts, this statistic requires crucial context. Two of these defeats occurred when Volkanovski boldly stepped up a weight class to challenge Islam Makhachev for the UFC Lightweight Championship, falling short on both occasions against one of the sport’s most formidable grapplers. His only featherweight loss in recent memory came in February 2024, when he relinquished his featherweight title to the formidable Ilia Topuria. However, Volkanovski swiftly reclaimed the vacant UFC Featherweight Championship in his very next bout – the first encounter against Diego Lopes at UFC 314 last April. In that unanimous decision victory, Volkanovski demonstrated his superior striking, landing more than twice as many significant strikes (158) as Lopes landed total strikes (71), illustrating his technical precision and relentless pressure. With a career breakdown of 11 decision victories, 13 KOs, and three submission triumphs, Volkanovski’s well-rounded skill set and veteran experience make him a formidable champion. Fighting in front of his home crowd in Sydney, the stakes are exceptionally high for "The Great" to reaffirm his status at the pinnacle of the featherweight division.
Challenging the champion is the 31-year-old Diego Lopes, a rising star with a compelling narrative. The Brazilian possesses a five-inch reach advantage over the 5-foot-6 Volkanovski, a physical attribute that could prove crucial. Lopes, with a strong background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ), signed with the UFC in 2023 and quickly made an impact. After dropping his promotional debut, he embarked on an impressive five-bout winning streak, earning "Performance of the Night" honors twice during this dominant run. This meteoric rise propelled him into his first title shot against Volkanovski at UFC 314. Despite coming up short in a unanimous decision, the fight was a back-and-forth war that earned "Fight of the Night" accolades, showcasing Lopes’s resilience and dangerous offensive capabilities.
While Volkanovski has been inactive since their first clash, Lopes maintained his momentum by taking on Jean Silva, a fellow Brazilian who was ranked and boasted five consecutive finish victories. Lopes delivered another statement performance in September 2025, prevailing via TKO with a spectacular spinning elbow and follow-up punches. This victory further highlighted his diverse finishing repertoire. Lopes’s career record comprises 11 knockout victories, 12 submissions, and four wins via decision, underscoring his ability to finish fights in multiple ways. Neither Lopes nor Volkanovski has ever been submitted in their professional careers, though both have experienced defeat by knockout and on the scorecards, pointing to their durability but also to potential vulnerabilities. The rematch promises a clash of styles and generations, with Lopes eager to avenge his previous loss and seize the featherweight crown.
UFC 325 Predictions: Insights from the Model
The advanced computer model has meticulously analyzed the entire UFC 325 card, identifying several high-value betting opportunities. One of the model’s top picks for UFC 325 is backing Mauricio Ruffy at +102 odds against Rafael Fiziev, projecting a +6.0% edge for Ruffy.
According to Mike McClure, this particular bout presents a fascinating stylistic clash: "From a stylistic perspective, this is a clash between Ruffy, who profiles as a technical fighter, and Fiziev, who operates primarily as a power striker." McClure further noted the high potential for a definitive finish in this contest, stating, "There’s a reasonable chance we see a finish here — our model projects a 57% stoppage rate with knockout or TKO being the most common method at 47%." The model’s analysis suggests that Ruffy is slightly more likely to emerge victorious than the current market odds imply, making the +102 price a playable bet.
Beyond this specific pick, the model has uncovered strong predictions for the Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 main event and various other bouts featured on the UFC 325 card. It has even identified a +600 sleeper pick that it backs to win outright, promising significant returns for those who follow its guidance. All detailed picks and comprehensive analysis, including how each fight might end, are available exclusively on SportsLine.
How to Make UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 Picks
For those seeking to leverage data-driven insights for UFC 325, the advanced model’s full suite of picks and analysis is accessible via SportsLine. The model’s historical performance, boasting a 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights between 2023 and 2025, offers a compelling reason to consult its projections before making any betting decisions.
UFC 325 Main Fight Card, Odds (from DraftKings, subject to change)
- Alexander Volkanovski (-148) vs. Diego Lopes (+124)
- Dan Hooker (+295) vs. Benoit Saint Denis (-375)
- Rafael Fiziev (-122) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (+102)
- Tai Tuivasa (+260) vs. Tallison Teixeira (-325)
- Quillan Salkilld (-1000) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+676)
The anticipation for UFC 325 is palpable, with a championship rematch headlining a card filled with high-stakes matchups and intriguing stylistic clashes. As the event draws near, all eyes will be on Sydney to witness whether Volkanovski can solidify his featherweight reign or if Lopes can upset the champion on his home turf.
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