Ali Akbar Rosady
Sydney, Australia is set to host a pivotal mixed martial arts event this Saturday as the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) stages UFC 325 at the Qudos Bank Arena. The highly anticipated main card is scheduled to commence at 9 p.m. ET and will be exclusively streamed on Paramount+. Headlining the star-studded fight card is a featherweight championship rematch that has drawn significant betting interest: reigning two-time champion Alexander Volkanovski (27-4) will once again face off against challenger Diego Lopes (27-7), following their initial encounter at UFC 314 last April, which Volkanovski won via decision.
The latest betting lines position Volkanovski, known as "The Great," as the -148 favorite, requiring a $148 wager to win $100. The Australian champion will undoubtedly benefit from the fervent backing of his home crowd. Lopes, currently ranked No. 2 in the featherweight division, enters the rematch as the +124 underdog, meaning a $100 bet could yield a $124 profit. The co-main event promises another compelling clash, featuring a lightweight battle between No. 6-ranked Dan Hooker (+295) and No. 8-ranked Benoit Saint-Denis (-375). Bettors and fans alike are advised to consult advanced predictive models and expert analysis before finalizing their UFC 325 selections.
New users keen to engage with the betting markets for UFC 325 can explore promotional offers, such as the DraftKings promo code, which presents an opportunity for $300 in bonus bets if their initial wager wins. Similarly, the FanDuel promo code offers new users $200 in bonus bets instantly upon a winning $5 bet.
Central to the pre-fight analysis for UFC 325 is the SportsLine MMA computer model, a sophisticated analytical tool that conducts 10,000 simulations for every fight on the card. This intricate model meticulously plays out each bout round-by-round, incorporating dynamic win probabilities that adjust based on individual fighter attributes. It also factors in round-by-round finish calculations, considering potential KO or submission timings, accumulating damage over the course of the fight that increases the likelihood of a late-round finish, and fighter-specific finishing tendencies—differentiating between power punchers, grapplers, and decision fighters.
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The model has demonstrated a strong track record, having been backtested against more than 500 fights contested between 2023 and 2025. During this period, it generated over 18 units of profit, equating to an impressive 6.1% Return on Investment (ROI) for UFC betting. Its recent performance highlights its efficacy, notably securing successful picks for the new era of UFC on Paramount+, accurately predicting Justin Gaethje to win outright at +195 odds and the Over in total rounds for the main event at UFC 324. For UFC 325, the model has comprehensively analyzed the Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 rematch from every conceivable angle, revealing its top betting picks and best bets, which are accessible via SportsLine.
The transition of UFC numbered events to Paramount+ marks a significant shift for fans, with the streaming service now offering every UFC numbered event and UFC Fight Night live, at no additional cost beyond the subscription. This eliminates the traditional Pay-Per-View model, providing subscribers with access to pre-fight docuseries, full-length replays, and an extensive archive of past fights.
Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2: A Deep Dive
The main event rematch features two of the featherweight division’s most exciting talents. Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski, at 36 years old, holds the distinction of being the first Australian-born UFC champion and the oldest fighter in UFC history to capture the featherweight title. His remarkable career saw him top the promotion’s pound-for-pound rankings in both 2022 and 2023, boasting an 11-fight win streak within the featherweight division at its peak. While his recent record stands at 2-3 over his last five bouts, it is crucial to note that two of those defeats occurred when Volkanovski ventured up a weight class to challenge Islam Makhachev for the UFC Lightweight Championship. His third recent loss came in February 2024, when he dropped the featherweight title to Ilia Topuria. However, Volkanovski swiftly reclaimed the vacant UFC Featherweight Championship in his very next bout, which was his initial clash with Diego Lopes. In that encounter, Volkanovski secured a unanimous decision victory, demonstrating his striking prowess by landing more than double the significant strikes (158) compared to Lopes’ total strikes (71). This marked his 11th career decision victory, complementing his 13 KOs and three submission triumphs.
On the opposing side, the 31-year-old Diego "Ninja" Lopes brings youth and a five-inch reach advantage over the 5-foot-6 Volkanovski. A native of Brazil with a strong Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background, Lopes signed with the UFC in 2023. After an initial defeat, he embarked on an impressive five-bout winning streak, earning "Performance of the Night" honors twice during this ascent. This rapid rise earned him his first title shot against Volkanovski at UFC 314 in April 2025. Despite falling short in the decision, the bout was widely recognized as "Fight of the Night" for its thrilling action. While Volkanovski has remained inactive since their first meeting, Lopes promptly returned to the octagon in September 2025, facing fellow Brazilian Jean Silva, a ranked fighter who had amassed five consecutive finish victories. Lopes decisively prevailed in that bout via TKO, utilizing a spinning elbow and follow-up punches. This victory added to his impressive finishing record, which now includes 11 knockout victories, 12 submissions, and four wins via decision. Intriguingly, neither Lopes nor Volkanovski has ever been defeated by submission, though both have experienced losses by knockout and on the judges’ scorecards.
UFC 325 Predictions and Key Bouts
Beyond the main event, the SportsLine model has identified several high-value picks on the UFC 325 card. One of its top selections backs Mauricio Ruffy at +102 odds against Rafael Fiziev, presenting a +6.0% edge. Explaining this pick, SportsLine’s expert stated, "From a stylistic perspective, this is a clash between Ruffy, who profiles as a technical fighter, and Fiziev, who operates primarily as a power striker. There’s a reasonable chance we see a finish here—our model projects a 57% stoppage rate with knockout or TKO being the most common method at 47%. This is a modest edge on the favorite, but playable at this price. The model sees Ruffy as slightly more likely to win than the market suggests."
In addition to this analysis, the model has generated strong predictions for the Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 main event and other key matchups, including identifying a +600 sleeper pick to win outright. These detailed picks and comprehensive analysis, stemming from the model’s proven 6.1% ROI from over 500 fights, are available exclusively at SportsLine.
UFC 325 Main Fight Card and Current Odds (Odds from DraftKings, subject to change):
- Alexander Volkanovski (-148) vs. Diego Lopes (+124)
- Dan Hooker (+295) vs. Benoit Saint Denis (-375)
- Rafael Fiziev (-122) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (+102)
- Tai Tuivasa (+260) vs. Tallison Teixeira (-325)
- Quillan Salkilld (-1000) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+676)
As UFC 325 approaches, all eyes will be on Sydney as the featherweight division prepares for a high-stakes rematch and a night of compelling mixed martial arts action.
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