UFC 323 odds, props, predictions, fight card: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 picks, bets by proven MMA insider and content

UFC 323: Bantamweight Powerhouses Dvalishvili and Yan Rematch in High-Stakes Las Vegas Showdown

Las Vegas, NV – The bantamweight division takes center stage this Saturday as two of its most formidable contenders, Merab "The Machine" Dvalishvili and Petr "No Mercy" Yan, are set to clash in a highly anticipated rematch at UFC 323. Hosted at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, the main card is scheduled to commence at 10 p.m. ET, following early preliminaries at 6 p.m. ET and preliminary bouts at 8 p.m. ET. This pivotal bout, a rematch from their intense encounter in March 2023, carries significant implications for the bantamweight title picture, positioning the victor firmly in contention for championship gold.

The Main Event: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 – A Grudge Match with Title Aspirations

The first meeting between Dvalishvili and Yan at UFC Fight Night 221 in March 2023 saw Dvalishvili deliver a dominant performance, securing a unanimous decision victory over the former champion. That fight was characterized by Dvalishvili’s relentless grappling pressure and suffocating pace, which stifled Yan’s precision striking. Yan, known for his technical prowess and calculated aggression, will undoubtedly be seeking redemption and a strategic overhaul to counter Dvalishvili’s formidable style in this second outing.

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Merab Dvalishvili, 33, enters this contest riding an impressive ten-fight win streak, solidifying his position as the number two contender in the bantamweight division. Hailing from Georgia, Dvalishvili has earned the moniker "The Machine" due to his seemingly endless cardio and high-volume wrestling attack. His professional record stands at 17-4, with three wins by knockout, one by submission, and thirteen by decision. Dvalishvili’s last appearance in the Octagon was a unanimous decision victory over former two-division champion Henry Cejudo at UFC 298 in February 2024, a performance that further cemented his elite status.

A true trailblazer, Dvalishvili holds several UFC records, including the most takedowns landed in UFC bantamweight history with 66 and a significant number of decision victories, underscoring his ability to maintain a grueling pace over three or five rounds. His style relies on overwhelming opponents with relentless pressure, constant takedown attempts, and an unwavering drive to control the fight’s tempo. While his finishing rate is lower than some of his peers, his ability to grind out wins against top competition is unparalleled.

Facing him is Petr Yan, 31, a former undisputed UFC Bantamweight Champion who sits as the division’s number four contender. Yan’s professional record is 16-5, featuring seven knockouts, one submission, and eight decisions. "No Mercy" is celebrated for his sophisticated striking technique, intelligent counter-punching, and formidable defensive grappling. After a challenging period that saw him lose three consecutive fights (against Aljamain Sterling via controversial disqualification, Sean O’Malley via split decision, and Dvalishvili via unanimous decision), Yan returned to winning ways with a unanimous decision victory over Song Yadong at UFC 299 in March 2024. This recent win underscored his resilience and commitment to reclaiming his spot at the pinnacle of the division.

Yan’s career highlights include multiple Fight of the Night and Performance of the Night bonuses, reflecting his exciting, high-level performances. He is tied for the third-most knockdowns in bantamweight history with ten, a testament to his power and precision as a striker. This rematch offers Yan a critical opportunity not only to avenge a significant loss but also to prove he can overcome a stylistic challenge that previously proved insurmountable, thereby re-entering the title conversation definitively.

Co-Main Event: Pantoja vs. Van – Flyweight Championship Battle

In the co-main event, the UFC Flyweight Championship will be on the line as defending champion Alexandre "The Cannibal" Pantoja puts his belt on the line against rising challenger Joshua Van. Pantoja, 34, has established himself as one of the most exciting and dangerous champions in the UFC, known for his aggressive, high-pressure style and exceptional submission game. His record stands at 29-5, with eight knockouts, eleven submissions, and ten decisions. Pantoja successfully defended his title against Steve Erceg at UFC 301 in May 2024, demonstrating his championship grit. He enters as the -225 favorite, reflecting confidence in his ability to continue his reign.

Joshua Van, 22, presents a fresh challenge to the champion, bringing an undefeated UFC record and considerable momentum into this championship bout. With a professional record of 10-1, Van has quickly ascended the flyweight ranks, showcasing dynamic striking and an impressive fight IQ for his age. His last victory came against Felipe Bunes at UFC on ESPN 53 in March 2024. As the +185 underdog, Van has an opportunity to pull off a significant upset and claim his first UFC title.

Additional Main Card Highlights

The UFC 323 main card is stacked with other compelling matchups:

  • Brandon Moreno (+110) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-130): This flyweight encounter pits former champion Brandon Moreno against the undefeated Japanese prospect Tatsuro Taira. Moreno, known for his relentless pace and gritty boxing, will look to halt Taira’s perfect record (16-0) and reassert his position at the top of the division. Taira, a formidable grappler and increasingly dangerous striker, represents the new wave of talent in the flyweight category.
  • Henry Cejudo (+205) vs. Payton Talbott (-250): A clash of generations in the bantamweight division sees former two-division champion Henry "Triple C" Cejudo attempting to rebound from his loss to Dvalishvili against the surging prospect Payton Talbott. Cejudo’s Olympic wrestling pedigree and refined striking face a stiff test in Talbott, an explosive and aggressive striker who has quickly made a name for himself. Talbott’s strong underdog odds reflect the significant challenge Cejudo faces against a younger, hungry contender.
  • Jan Blachowicz (-110) vs. Bogdan Guskov (-110): A light heavyweight showdown that promises fireworks, as former champion Jan Blachowicz takes on Bogdan Guskov. Blachowicz, renowned for his "Polish Power" and veteran experience, aims to climb back into title contention. Guskov, an aggressive finisher with knockout power, will be looking to score a signature win against a respected former champion. This evenly matched fight, with both fighters at -110, is expected to be a stand-up war.

Betting Insights and Expert Analysis

The betting landscape for UFC 323, as provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, places Merab Dvalishvili as a significant favorite at -410, while Petr Yan is listed as the +320 underdog. These odds reflect Dvalishvili’s dominant performance in their first encounter and his sustained win streak. For the co-main event, champion Alexandre Pantoja is the -225 favorite against Joshua Van (+185).

For bettors and enthusiasts seeking informed predictions, SportsLine expert Daniel Vithlani offers comprehensive MMA analysis and betting advice. Vithlani has established a strong track record since his debut in January 2023, boasting a 5-0 record for UFC 283 and accumulating over $1,500 in profits on his UFC main-card picks. His notable calls include predicting Sean O’Malley’s upset victory (+210) over Aljamain Sterling (-250) at UFC 292, and correctly backing underdogs Dustin Poirier (+190) and Michael Page (+110) at UFC 299.

Vithlani has delved into every aspect of Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 and the broader UFC 323 card. One of his highlighted preliminary card picks involves Chris Duncan (-108) defeating Terrance McKinney (-112) in a lightweight bout. Vithlani stated, "The odds for this matchup surprised me, as I expected Duncan to be a much wider favorite. Duncan is on a three-fight win streak and is now 5-1 in the UFC. He’s shown off a solid kickboxing game, a lethal squeeze on his chokeholds and great durability and determination. Duncan fights with a hard-nosed style and refuses to be denied even when the fight isn’t going his way."

He further analyzed McKinney, noting, "McKinney is an explosive finisher who is always dangerous. In his 17-7 pro career, McKinney’s fights have gone past the first round just twice. He has never fought to a decision and has been finished in all of his losses. McKinney’s flying knees and rear-naked chokes could put Duncan in danger, but I believe Duncan’s mentality and physicality will give him the edge. If Duncan lands a heavy counterpunch in traffic, McKinney might not stand back up."

For new users interested in sports betting, leading platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel are offering promotional incentives. DraftKings provides an opportunity for new users to earn $200 in bonus bets if their initial wager wins, while FanDuel offers $150 in bonus bets instantly if a qualifying $5 bet is successful. Additionally, Underdog Fantasy is providing $100 in site credits when users play $5 with the promo code CBSSPORTS2 in select states.

UFC 323 promises an evening of high-stakes mixed martial arts action, with pivotal matchups across multiple divisions. The bantamweight rematch between Dvalishvili and Yan is set to be a defining moment for both fighters, with the winner poised to make a strong case for a shot at the coveted UFC championship. Sports fans can access further detailed analysis and expert picks for all major bouts from Daniel Vithlani at SportsLine.

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