UFC 323 odds, fight card, predictions: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 picks, best bets

The main event features a pivotal rematch for the UFC Bantamweight Championship, where the reigning titleholder, Merab Dvalishvili, will face former champion Petr Yan. Their initial encounter at UFC Fight Night 221 on March 11, 2023, saw Dvalishvili secure a dominant unanimous decision victory, establishing himself as a formidable force in the division. Now, Yan seeks redemption and the opportunity to reclaim the belt.

Merab Dvalishvili, the 34-year-old Georgian powerhouse, enters the octagon as the significant favorite at -410, according to the latest UFC 323 odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. His opponent, Petr Yan, is listed as the underdog at +320. This championship clash headlines a stacked card that also includes a flyweight title bout between champion Alexandre Pantoja and challenger Joshua Van, with Pantoja favored at -225 against Van at +185.

Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2: A Deep Dive into the Championship Rematch

Merab Dvalishvili (21-4, 3 KOs, 2 Submissions, 16 Decisions) arrives at UFC 323 on an impressive 14-bout winning streak, cementing his status as one of the most dominant champions in the UFC. Dvalishvili, the first Georgian-born champion in UFC history, claimed the UFC bantamweight title at UFC 306. He has since mounted a formidable defense record, including a unanimous decision win over Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC 311, a submission victory against Sean O’Malley at UFC 316, and most recently, a record third successful defense via unanimous decision against Cory Sandhagen at UFC 320 on October 4.

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Known for his relentless pace, exceptional wrestling, and suffocating grappling, Dvalishvili holds several UFC records. He has registered the most wins by decision in UFC history and leads the all-time takedowns landed with an astounding 117. His cardio and ability to maintain pressure throughout a fight have been key to his success, earning him two Performance of the Night and two Fight of the Night bonuses. Currently ranked No. 3 in the UFC men’s pound-for-pound rankings, Dvalishvili represents a relentless challenge for any opponent.

Petr Yan (17-5, 7 KOs, 1 Submission, 9 Decisions), the 32-year-old former interim and undisputed UFC bantamweight champion, aims to reverse his fortunes from their first meeting. Yan is on a three-fight winning streak, most recently securing a unanimous decision victory over Marcus McGhee at UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder on July 26. His path to this rematch has been marked by a determination to return to the division’s summit.

Yan, who debuted professionally in December 2014, joined the UFC in 2018, earning recognition as the No. 5 Newcomer of the Year. By 2019, he was acclaimed as a Top-10 Fighter of the Year. He is celebrated for his technical striking, precise boxing, and dangerous counter-punching abilities, earning him three Fight of the Night and one Performance of the Night awards. Yan is tied for the fourth-longest win streak in UFC bantamweight division history with seven consecutive victories and is tied for the third-most knockdowns in bantamweight history with 10. Ranked No. 3 in the UFC bantamweight rankings, Yan brings a wealth of championship experience and a high-level striking arsenal to the rematch.

The stylistic clash between Dvalishvili’s grappling dominance and Yan’s striking prowess makes this rematch particularly intriguing. In their first fight, Dvalishvili successfully nullified Yan’s offense with relentless takedown attempts and control time. For Yan to reclaim the title, he will need to demonstrate improved takedown defense and capitalize on any openings to land significant strikes, potentially seeking a knockout finish to avoid Dvalishvili’s smothering ground game.

Expert Analysis and Betting Insights

For those seeking informed betting decisions, SportsLine expert Daniel Vithlani has provided his comprehensive MMA predictions and betting advice for UFC 323. Vithlani, a highly analytical UFC bettor, has consistently delivered successful picks for SportsLine members since his debut in January 2023, boasting a 5-0 record for UFC 283. His insights have resulted in over $1,500 in profits on his UFC main-card sports betting picks.

Vithlani’s notable successes include accurately predicting an upset victory for Sean O’Malley (+210) against Aljamain Sterling (-250) at UFC 292 as part of a 4-1 main card. He also correctly identified underdog selections for Dustin Poirier (+190) against Benoit Saint Denis (-230) and Michael Page (+110) against Kevin Holland (-130) at UFC 299. His consistent track record highlights the value of his detailed analysis.

Ahead of UFC 323, Vithlani has thoroughly examined the Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 matchup, along with other key bouts on the card, to identify his top betting picks and best bets. New users interested in sports betting opportunities can explore various promotions, including the DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets if their initial wager wins. Similarly, the Underdog promo code provides $100 in site credits when playing $5 with the code CBSSPORTS2 in select states, while the FanDuel promo code offers $150 in bonus bets instantly if a $5 bet wins.

Key Preliminary Card Pick

Among Vithlani’s specific recommendations for UFC 323 is backing Chris Duncan (-108) to defeat Terrance McKinney (-112) in a lightweight matchup on the preliminary card. Vithlani expressed surprise at the close odds, anticipating Duncan to be a more substantial favorite.

"Duncan is on a three-fight win streak and is now 5-1 in the UFC. He’s shown off a solid kickboxing game, a lethal squeeze on his chokeholds and great durability and determination," Vithlani stated. "Duncan fights with a hard-nosed style and refuses to be denied even when the fight isn’t going his way."

Regarding McKinney, Vithlani acknowledged his opponent’s inherent danger: "McKinney is an explosive finisher who is always dangerous. In his 17-7 pro career, McKinney’s fights have gone past the first round just twice. He has never fought to a decision and has been finished in all of his losses." Despite McKinney’s potential for quick finishes with flying knees and rear-naked chokes, Vithlani concluded, "I believe Duncan’s mentality and physicality will give him the edge. If Duncan lands a heavy counterpunch in traffic, McKinney might not stand back up."

UFC 323 Full Main Fight Card and Odds (Subject to Change)

Merab Dvalishvili (-410) vs. Petr Yan (+320) – UFC Bantamweight Championship
Alexandre Pantoja (-225) vs. Joshua Van (+185) – UFC Flyweight Championship
Brandon Moreno (+110) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-130) – Flyweight Bout
Henry Cejudo (+205) vs. Payton Talbott (-250) – Bantamweight Bout
Jan Blachowicz (-110) vs. Bogdan Guskov (-110) – Light Heavyweight Bout

Vithlani’s comprehensive analysis extends to all main card bouts, including a strong pick for a fighter described as "the most savvy grappler in the division" to secure a significant victory. Those seeking these detailed picks and the complete breakdown of UFC 323 can find them exclusively at SportsLine.

In other news relevant to UFC broadcasting, it has been confirmed that UFC content will begin airing on Paramount+ starting January 24, 2026. Interested viewers can sign up for Paramount+ with a free 7-day trial ahead of this transition.

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