UFC 321 Set to Unfold in Abu Dhabi with Aspinall-Gane Heavyweight Clash Headlining a Pivotal Fight Card

For the first time since Jon Jones’ dominant victory over Ciryl Gane in March 2023, the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s undisputed heavyweight championship is slated for defense without an active interim title in contention. Tom Aspinall, the previously designated interim titleholder, has been elevated to full champion status and is now preparing for his inaugural defense. He is set to face Ciryl Gane on Saturday in the main event of UFC 321, held in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, marking the promotion’s 22nd visit to the capital city. The heavyweight division’s recent complexities have largely stemmed from Jon Jones’ intermittent activity and his stated reluctance to defend the title against Aspinall. However, in a significant development in June, Jones formally vacated the championship and briefly announced his retirement, only to declare his intention to return to competition later this year within days of his initial announcement. As the fight card approaches, several key narratives have emerged, shaping the anticipation for the event.

1. The Weight of Expectation on Tom Aspinall’s Shoulders

Tom Aspinall enters UFC 321 carrying considerable pressure as he prepares for his first undisputed title defense. Despite an impressive professional record of 14 wins and 3 losses, including 8 stoppage victories within his nine UFC appearances, certain facets of the 31-year-old Englishman’s fighting prowess remain largely untested. Aspinall has not competed beyond the second round in any of his 17 professional bouts, leaving questions regarding his stamina and ability to perform over the championship distance of five rounds. His ground game, while effective in past finishes, has not been thoroughly examined against elite-level grapplers for extended periods, nor has his chin faced sustained pressure in a prolonged striking exchange. To date, Aspinall has showcased explosive power, remarkably fast hands for a heavyweight, and adept movement, though he has occasionally been observed leaving his chin exposed while retreating, a vulnerability he has yet to be penalized for. The discourse surrounding his ascent has also been influenced by Jon Jones’ past comments, which at times questioned Aspinall’s marketability, fighting capability, and whether he might be a fleeting presence at the top. With Aspinall positioned as a significant betting favorite, potentially as much as 4-to-1 against Gane, any outcome other than a decisive victory could inadvertently lend credence to Jones’ earlier dismissive remarks. Therefore, Aspinall’s performance against Gane is critical not only for solidifying his reign but also for unequivocally demonstrating that Jones’ avoidance of a direct confrontation with such a dynamic and explosive talent was a calculated decision aimed at preserving his near-perfect fighting record against the division’s apparent future.

2. Ciryl Gane’s Critical Juncture for Championship Aspirations

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For the 34-year-old Ciryl Gane, this bout against Tom Aspinall represents a potentially career-defining moment in his pursuit of the undisputed heavyweight championship. When Gane, a 6-foot-5 kickboxer, transitioned from Muay Thai to mixed martial arts in 2018 and subsequently debuted in the UFC in 2019, he was widely regarded as the prototype for the modern heavyweight. His initial ascent was meteoric, culminating in an interim heavyweight title victory over Derrick Lewis at UFC 265 in August 2021, which elevated his professional record to an unblemished 10-0. However, the subsequent years have seen Gane’s trajectory waver, with perceived stagnation rather than continuous improvement. His ground defense, in particular, was severely exploited in two high-stakes championship encounters. He suffered a unanimous decision loss to Francis Ngannou at UFC 270 in January 2022, a fight where Ngannou famously competed with a compromised knee. This was followed by a swift submission loss to Jon Jones just 2 minutes and 4 seconds into the first round at UFC 285 in March 2023, a fight that highlighted Gane’s vulnerabilities on the mat. Prior to these title setbacks, Gane also endured challenging moments during victories, notably absorbing significant damage in his knockout win over Tai Tuivasa at UFC Fight Night 209 in September 2022. While he demonstrated a renewed vigor with a TKO victory over Serghei Spivac in September 2023, his overall championship hopes have been tempered by past disappointments. Gane, a native of France, understands that this contest against Aspinall could very well be his final opportunity to claim the undisputed crown. The onus will be on him to not only leverage his striking acumen but also to demonstrate substantial improvements in his grappling defense, particularly if Aspinall succeeds in taking the fight into deeper waters or to the canvas.

3. The Vacated Strawweight Title and the Jandiroba-Dern Rematch

The women’s strawweight division now finds itself in a period of transition, following the departure of its two-time champion, Zhang Weili. The 34-year-old Chinese superstar, who had firmly established herself as a dominant force at 115 pounds, recently announced her decision to vacate her title to pursue a historic superfight. Zhang is slated to challenge the flyweight queen, Valentina Shevchenko, in what will serve as the co-headliner for UFC 322 in November. This strategic move, while creating an intriguing matchup at flyweight, has simultaneously opened a significant opportunity within the strawweight division, which, in recent times, has experienced a relative lack of the star-powered depth it once commanded. Seizing this opportunity are Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern, who are scheduled to meet in the co-main event of UFC 321 to contest the newly vacant title. This bout marks a rematch of their December 2020 encounter, which Dern won via unanimous decision. Jandiroba, a 36-year-old Brazilian and former Invicta FC champion, experienced a challenging start to her UFC tenure, losing three of her first six fights after her 2019 debut. However, she has since found her rhythm, embarking on an impressive five-fight winning streak that has propelled her into title contention. Her resurgence has included notable victories over top contenders such as Yan Xiaonan, Amanda Lemos, Loopy Godinez, and Marina Rodriguez. Known for her highly technical grappling and quiet demeanor outside the cage, Jandiroba’s consistent improvement has been a defining characteristic of her recent career. Mackenzie Dern, 31, has followed a different path to the upper echelon of the division. Upon her UFC debut in 2018, she was widely touted as a future star with immense marketing potential, largely due to her elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree. While Dern currently rides a two-fight winning streak, her overall record in her last seven outings stands at 3 wins and 4 losses, reflecting an inconsistent period. For Dern, this represents a crucial moment to fulfill her considerable potential. To do so, she will need to address past criticisms regarding her game planning and the consistency of her striking technique against a former opponent who has steadily refined her craft.

4. Umar Nurmagomedov’s Quest for Bantamweight Supremacy

The bantamweight division continues to be a hotbed of talent, and Umar Nurmagomedov, cousin of UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov, remains a central figure despite suffering his first professional loss earlier this year. Nurmagomedov’s undefeated streak was broken in January when he lost a unanimous decision to top contender Merab Dvalishvili in a non-title bout. During that contest, Nurmagomedov sustained a broken right hand in the first round, an injury he believes significantly impacted the outcome, despite official scorecards reading 48-47 (twice) and 49-46 in favor of Dvalishvili. Nurmagomedov, with a professional record of 17 wins and 1 loss, is widely recognized for his perfectly well-rounded game, blending formidable wrestling with slick striking. His ability to threaten takedowns against Dvalishvili, a fighter known for his relentless pace and grappling, was evident, though he appeared to lack the sustained gas tank that "The Machine" possesses. With current bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley having effectively cleared out several top contenders, the winner of Nurmagomedov’s upcoming bout against Mario Bautista is expected to be in prime position for the next title shot. Dvalishvili, meanwhile, is slated for a rematch against former champion Petr Yan in December, further illustrating the competitive landscape. Nurmagomedov, who has been installed as a substantial betting favorite, potentially as high as 6-to-1, aims to snap Bautista’s impressive eight-fight win streak. Bautista, holding a professional record of 14 wins and 2 losses, has himself demonstrated significant improvements, making this a pivotal matchup for the division’s immediate future. Nurmagomedov has publicly stated his commitment to adjusting his cardio, believing that with a fully healthy hand and refined conditioning, he possesses the tools to overcome any bantamweight, including the formidable Dvalishvili.

5. Alexander Volkov’s Challenging Road to a Heavyweight Title Shot

Alexander Volkov, the towering Russian heavyweight, finds himself in another critical juncture of his career, navigating a path that has frequently seen him on the cusp of a title shot only to face setbacks. His most recent outing saw him lose a unanimous decision to Ciryl Gane in June 2021, a result that, while not a split decision as erroneously reported, still derailed his momentum at the time. More recently, Volkov’s significant four-fight winning streak was snapped by a first-round TKO loss to Sergei Pavlovich in November 2023, a fight that underscored the elite-level power at the top of the division. Despite this, Volkov has remained a perennial contender, often praised for his technical striking and reach advantage. Following his Gane fight, UFC CEO Dana White was reportedly heard consoling Volkov and promising to "take care of him" in future fight bookings, acknowledging the Russian’s consistent contributions to the division. This has apparently translated into a high-stakes contender’s bout against the formidable Brazilian ground specialist, Jailton Almeida. Almeida, who boasts an impressive 8-1 record in the UFC with seven of those wins coming by finish (including four via submission), enters this contest as a slight betting favorite. This favoritism largely stems from Volkov’s documented inconsistencies in takedown defense throughout his career, a vulnerability Almeida is perfectly equipped to exploit. Volkov, a 35-year-old former Bellator MMA champion with a professional record of 37 wins and 10 losses, recognizes the magnitude of this challenge. A victory against a dangerous prospect like Almeida would undoubtedly place him squarely in line for a UFC title shot, a coveted prize that has thus far remained elusive. However, his path to the championship could still be complicated by the potential return of Jon Jones or the emergence of other top contenders, irrespective of his performance against Almeida.

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