Ali Akbar RosadyFor the first time since Jon Jones’ victory over Ciryl Gane in March 2023, the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s undisputed heavyweight championship will be defended without an active interim title in contention. Tom Aspinall, who previously held the interim belt and has now been elevated to full champion status, is set to make his inaugural defense against Ciryl Gane this Saturday, headlining UFC 321 in Abu Dhabi. The heavyweight division has navigated a period of uncertainty, primarily due to Jon Jones’ sporadic activity and his reluctance to defend against Aspinall. However, Jones vacated the title in June, briefly announcing retirement before indicating a potential return later in the year. As the promotion prepares for its 22nd event in the capital city of the United Arab Emirates, several key narratives underpin the fight card.
1. Tom Aspinall Under Scrutiny in First Undisputed Title Defense
The pressure on Tom Aspinall entering UFC 321 appears substantial. Despite a dominant nine-fight UFC tenure, which includes eight stoppage victories, Aspinall’s career has presented specific questions regarding his endurance and defensive capabilities. His sole loss in the UFC, a knee injury sustained early in a bout, was later avenged by a knockout three fights later, highlighting his resilience. However, the 32-year-old Englishman has never competed beyond the second round in his 18 professional fights, leaving his performance over championship distance (five rounds) unproven. His ground game, often touted as formidable due to his BJJ black belt, remains largely untested against elite heavyweights in extended grappling exchanges within the Octagon. Furthermore, Aspinall’s chin has not been significantly challenged in a sustained striking exchange, despite a tendency to keep it exposed while backpedaling.
The discourse surrounding Aspinall’s legitimacy was amplified by former champion Jon Jones, who frequently questioned Aspinall’s overall fighting prowess, marketability, and potential longevity as a champion. These comments, made while Jones was sidestepping a direct confrontation with Aspinall, have placed an additional layer of expectation on the Manchester native. Aspinall, currently positioned as a significant betting favorite (reportedly more than 4-to-1) against Gane, faces a critical juncture. A decisive victory against Gane would not only solidify his claim as the undisputed champion but also serve as a definitive rebuttal to Jones’ previous criticisms, validating his status as a dynamic and explosive talent widely considered the future of the heavyweight division. Conversely, a loss could inadvertently lend credence to the doubts raised by Jones, complicating Aspinall’s trajectory in the sport.
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2. Ciryl Gane’s Critical Juncture for Championship Aspirations
For Ciryl Gane, this bout against Tom Aspinall represents a potentially career-defining moment, a "now or never" scenario for his championship aspirations. The 35-year-old Frenchman burst onto the UFC scene in 2019, quickly establishing himself as a formidable force. His background in Muay Thai, which he transitioned from to MMA just a year prior to his UFC debut, contributed to his distinctive kickboxing style and agile movement, atypical for a 6-foot-5 heavyweight. Gane’s initial ascent saw him achieve an undefeated 10-0 professional record, culminating in an interim heavyweight title win over Derrick Lewis in 2021.
However, the subsequent four years have been marked by a perceived regression in Gane’s development, particularly concerning his grappling defense. His ground game was notably exposed in two disappointing title challenges. The first was a unanimous decision loss to Francis Ngannou in 2022, a fight where Ngannou was reportedly competing with a compromised knee, yet still managed to control Gane on the mat. The second, more decisive setback, occurred against Jon Jones in March 2023, where Gane was submitted via guillotine choke just 2 minutes and 4 seconds into the first round, highlighting a significant vulnerability. Between these title losses, Gane also endured moments of vulnerability in victories, notably being visibly hurt multiple times during his 2022 knockout win over Tai Tuivasa. His most recent outing, a rematch against Alexander Volkov in December, resulted in a highly disputed split-decision victory, a verdict openly challenged by UFC CEO Dana White, who disagreed with the judges’ scoring. While Gane briefly showcased a resurgence with a 2023 TKO win over a surging Serghei Spivac, his inconsistent performances and exposed weaknesses mean that a third attempt at the undisputed crown requires him to demonstrate significant improvement, particularly in his ground defense, to contend with Aspinall’s well-rounded skillset.
3. Strawweight Division Opens Up with Vacant Title Bout: Jandiroba vs. Dern II
The women’s strawweight division is set for a significant reshuffle following the departure of its two-time champion, Zhang Weili. The 36-year-old Chinese star recently vacated her 115-pound title to pursue a historic superfight against flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko, scheduled to co-headline UFC 322 in November. This strategic move, while creating a high-profile matchup, has simultaneously opened a substantial opportunity within a strawweight division that has recently lacked the star power and depth it once possessed.
Stepping into this void, Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern are slated to meet in the co-main event of UFC 321, contesting the now-vacant strawweight championship. This bout marks a rematch of their 2020 encounter, which Dern won by decision. Jandiroba, a former Invicta FC champion, experienced a challenging start to her UFC career, losing three of her first six fights after debuting in 2019. However, the 37-year-old Brazilian has since found a remarkable resurgence, riding a five-fight winning streak. Her recent victories over top contenders such as Yan Xiaonan, Amanda Lemos, Loopy Godinez, and Marina Rodriguez underscore her technical prowess and consistent improvement within the Octagon. Known for her soft-spoken demeanor outside the cage, Jandiroba’s highly technical grappling and relentless pressure have positioned her as a legitimate force.
Mackenzie Dern, whose path to the top has been less linear, was once heralded as a future star with immense marketing potential upon her 2018 UFC debut, largely due to her elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree. While currently on a two-fight winning streak, Dern’s overall record reflects some inconsistency, with a 3-4 standing in her last seven bouts. At 32 years old, this opportunity represents a critical moment for Dern to fulfill her considerable potential. To do so, she will need to address a history of inconsistent striking technique and occasional questionable game-planning, particularly against a former foe in Jandiroba who has demonstrated consistent evolution in her own fighting style.
4. Umar Nurmagomedov’s Quest for Bantamweight Supremacy
The bantamweight division continues to be dominated by Merab Dvalishvili, whose relentless pace and grappling pressure have effectively cleaned out the weight class. A pertinent question circulating among analysts is whether Umar Nurmagomedov possesses the unique skillset required to challenge Dvalishvili’s reign. This inquiry persists despite Nurmagomedov’s unanimous decision loss to Dvalishvili in January, a fight where scorecards read 48-47 (twice) and 49-46 in favor of the champion.
Nurmagomedov, a cousin of UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov, revealed that he sustained a broken right hand in the first round of his bout against Dvalishvili. He has publicly stated his belief that he performed sufficiently to secure the victory, even with the injury, highlighting his confidence in his well-rounded game. Nurmagomedov’s fighting style, which blends high-level Dagestani wrestling with sharp striking, offers a distinct challenge to Dvalishvili’s "Machine" persona. While Nurmagomedov has the ability to threaten Dvalishvili with takedowns, a crucial element in neutralizing the Georgian champion’s offensive grappling, the primary perceived gap in their previous encounter was Nurmagomedov’s gas tank, which appeared to fall short of Dvalishvili’s seemingly inexhaustible endurance.
As Dvalishvili prepares for his fourth title defense of 2025 in a December rematch against former champion Petr Yan, the bantamweight landscape is ripe for new contenders. Nurmagomedov, who has stated his intent to adjust his cardio, is scheduled to return against Mario Bautista at UFC 321. Bautista enters the bout on an impressive eight-fight win streak, presenting a formidable challenge. However, Nurmagomedov has been installed as a significant betting favorite, reportedly as high as 6-to-1, underscoring expectations for his performance. The winner of this contest is widely anticipated to earn the next shot at the bantamweight title, making Nurmagomedov’s return a pivotal moment in the division.
5. Alexander Volkov’s Strategic Challenge Against Jailton Almeida
Alexander Volkov, the imposing Russian heavyweight, enters UFC 321 following a controversial split-decision loss to Ciryl Gane in December, which snapped his five-fight winning streak. The outcome of that bout was widely contested, with many observers and even UFC CEO Dana White publicly disagreeing with the judges’ ruling. This decision echoed a similar pattern in Volkov’s career, where critical high-stakes fights, such as his 2018 knockout loss to Derrick Lewis in a bout he was dominating, have eluded him, preventing a clear path to a title shot.
Following the disputed Gane fight, White was reportedly overheard consoling Volkov backstage, promising to "take care of him" in future matchmaking. This pledge has materialized in the form of a key contender’s bout against Brazilian grappling specialist Jailton Almeida. Almeida, who boasts an 8-1 record in the UFC with seven finishes (including four by submission), represents a significant stylistic challenge for Volkov. Almeida’s aggressive, submission-heavy approach has made him a rising star in the heavyweight division. He enters the fight as a slight betting favorite, largely due to Volkov’s documented inconsistencies in takedown defense throughout his career. The 36-year-old Volkov has often struggled against elite grapplers, a vulnerability Almeida is well-equipped to exploit.
For Volkov, a former Bellator MMA champion, this fight is crucial. A victory over Almeida, provided he is not subsequently bypassed by a returning Jon Jones or a rising contender like Alex Pereira, would likely position him for a long-awaited UFC title shot. This opportunity has remained elusive despite his consistent presence at the top of the heavyweight rankings. The matchup against Almeida is far from a "gift"; it is a calculated strategic challenge designed to test Volkov’s grappling improvements and determine if he can finally overcome the obstacles that have historically prevented him from reaching the undisputed UFC heavyweight championship.
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