For the first time since Jon Jones’ dominant victory over Ciryl Gane in March 2023, the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s undisputed heavyweight championship will be contested without the shadow of an active interim title. Tom Aspinall, who previously held the interim belt, has now been elevated to full champion status and is set to make his inaugural defense against the very opponent Jones defeated, Ciryl Gane. This pivotal clash headlines UFC 321 on Saturday, hosted in Abu Dhabi, marking the promotion’s 22nd venture to the capital city of the United Arab Emirates. The recent turbulence in the heavyweight division stemmed largely from Jones’ protracted inactivity following his championship win and his subsequent unwillingness to defend against Aspinall. However, the landscape shifted dramatically in June when Jones officially vacated the title and briefly announced his retirement, only to declare days later his intention to return to competition later this year. This series of events has cleared the path for Aspinall to solidify his reign and for a new chapter in the heavyweight division to unfold. As fight night approaches, several compelling narratives emerge across the card, shaping the stakes for the fighters involved.

1. The Weight of Expectation Rests Heavily on Tom Aspinall

Tom Aspinall (14-3 MMA, 7-1 UFC), the 32-year-old Englishman, steps into the Octagon under immense pressure to validate his claim as the undisputed heavyweight champion. Despite an impressive professional record, which includes eight stoppage victories and only one career loss (a knee injury against Curtis Blaydes that he later avenged), significant aspects of Aspinall’s fighting prowess remain untested. Notably, he has never progressed beyond the second round in any of his 18 professional bouts, let alone reaching the championship distance of five rounds. This raises questions regarding his cardio, his resilience on the ground, and his chin’s durability in a protracted firefight. To date, Aspinall has showcased remarkably fast hands and formidable power, often employing a backpedaling stance with his chin exposed, a tactic that has, remarkably, yet to be exploited by an opponent.

Adding to the narrative pressure are the consistent remarks from Jon Jones, made publicly when justifying his refusal to face Aspinall. Jones frequently questioned Aspinall’s overall fighting ability, his commercial appeal, and whether he was merely a "flash-in-the-pan." With Aspinall entering the bout as a substantial 4-to-1 betting favorite against Gane, any form of defeat could inadvertently lend credence to Jones’ dismissive assessments. For Aspinall, this fight transcends a mere title defense; it is an opportunity to unequivocally demonstrate that Jones’ reluctance to engage was a recognition of Aspinall’s dynamic and explosive talent, solidifying his position as the division’s legitimate future and a worthy successor to the heavyweight throne.

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2. A Final Championship Opportunity Looms for Ciryl Gane

For 35-year-old Ciryl Gane (12-2 MMA, 9-2 UFC), this championship contest against Tom Aspinall carries the distinct feel of a "now or never" moment for his aspirations of undisputed gold. When he burst onto the UFC scene in 2019, just a year after transitioning from Muay Thai to mixed martial arts, the 6-foot-5 kickboxer appeared to be the prototype for the next generation of heavyweights. Gane’s initial ascent was meteoric, culminating in an interim heavyweight title win over Derrick Lewis in 2021, which pushed his professional record to a perfect 10-0. However, the subsequent four years have seen Gane’s progress stall, and in some aspects, even regress.

His ground game, once considered a potential weakness, was glaringly exposed in two high-stakes title losses. The first came against Francis Ngannou at UFC 270 in January 2022, where Ngannou, fighting with a compromised knee, managed to out-wrestle Gane to a unanimous decision. The second, and more definitive, was against Jon Jones at UFC 285 in March 2023, where Gane was submitted via guillotine choke merely 2:04 into the first round. Between these defeats, Gane also experienced vulnerable moments even in victories, notably absorbing significant damage in his 2022 knockout win over Tai Tuivasa. His most recent outing in December, a rematch against Alexander Volkov, resulted in a highly disputed split decision victory, a judgment openly contested by UFC CEO Dana White. While Gane briefly showcased a resurgence with a 2023 TKO win over a streaking Serghei Spivac, the memory of his past championship shortcomings persists. For the French native, securing the undisputed crown this time demands taking Aspinall into uncharted deep waters and conclusively demonstrating a significant improvement in his grappling deficiencies.

3. Zhang Weili’s Departure Redefines the Women’s Strawweight Landscape

The women’s strawweight division now finds itself in a period of transition following the departure of its reigning champion, Zhang Weili. The 36-year-old Chinese superstar and two-time 115-pound titleholder recently vacated her belt to pursue a historic superfight at flyweight, challenging queen Valentina Shevchenko. This highly anticipated cross-divisional clash is slated to serve as the co-headliner for UFC 322 in November. While Zhang’s exit leaves a void in a division that, at present, lacks the same star-powered depth it once commanded, it simultaneously creates a significant opportunity for other contenders to seize the vacant throne.

This weekend’s co-main event will feature Virna Jandiroba (20-3 MMA, 6-3 UFC) and Mackenzie Dern (13-4 MMA, 8-4 UFC) in a compelling rematch of their 2020 encounter, with the undisputed strawweight championship on the line. Jandiroba, a former Invicta FC champion, initially struggled in the UFC, losing three of her first six fights after her 2019 debut. However, the 37-year-old Brazilian has found her stride late in her career, riding an impressive five-fight win streak. Known for her soft-spoken demeanor outside the cage and highly technical prowess within it, Jandiroba’s resurgence has seen her defeat a series of top contenders, including Yan Xiaonan, Amanda Lemos, Loopy Godinez, and Marina Rodriguez. Dern, who secured a decision victory over Jandiroba in their initial meeting, has followed a more uneven path to the top. Once heralded as a future star with immense marketing potential upon her 2018 debut, Dern’s professional trajectory has been inconsistent. Although she enters this fight on a two-fight win streak, her record stands at 3-4 in her last seven outings. At 32, Dern faces a critical juncture in her career; to fulfill her potential and claim the undisputed title, she must overcome past tendencies towards suboptimal game planning and inconsistent striking technique against a former foe who has demonstrably and consistently improved.

4. Umar Nurmagomedov Challenges the Bantamweight Paradigm Against Mario Bautista

The question of whether Umar Nurmagomedov (16-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC) is the sole bantamweight capable of dethroning Merab Dvalishvili (17-4 MMA, 10-2 UFC) might appear premature, particularly given Nurmagomedov’s unanimous decision loss to the reigning champion in January. However, Dvalishvili, who is set for his fourth title defense of 2025 in a December rematch against former champion Petr Yan, possesses remarkably few weaknesses. Nurmagomedov, the cousin of UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov, still presents a perfectly well-rounded game that could potentially trouble "The Machine."

In their January encounter, Nurmagomedov broke his right hand in the first round. Despite this significant injury, he maintained that his performance was sufficient to warrant a victory, a sentiment not reflected in the official scorecards of 48-47 (twice) and 49-46. Nurmagomedov’s ability to credibly threaten takedowns against Dvalishvili is a crucial factor, as few fighters have been able to challenge the Georgian champion’s wrestling dominance. The primary perceived deficit in their first fight appeared to be Nurmagomedov’s gas tank, which could not match Dvalishvili’s relentless, unceasing pace. Nurmagomedov has publicly stated his intention to address this cardio gap as he prepares for his return bout against Mario Bautista (14-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC). With Dvalishvili having effectively cleared out much of the bantamweight division, the winner of Saturday’s Nurmagomedov-Bautista clash is expected to earn the next shot at the champion. Nurmagomedov has been installed as a significant 6-to-1 betting favorite, seeking to snap Bautista’s impressive eight-fight win streak and re-establish his claim as the division’s top contender.

5. Alexander Volkov’s "Gift" in Jailton Almeida Poses a Formidable Challenge

Alexander Volkov (37-11 MMA, 11-5 UFC), the towering Russian heavyweight, saw his resurgent five-fight win streak controversially snapped in December by Ciryl Gane via a split decision that was widely debated and disagreed upon by many, including UFC CEO Dana White. This result mirrored previous instances in Volkov’s career where a crucial victory that could have propelled him into title contention slipped away, most notably his 2018 knockout loss to Derrick Lewis in the closing seconds of a fight he was thoroughly dominating. In the aftermath of the Gane fight, White was captured on camera consoling Volkov, promising to "take care of him" in the future.

This promise has apparently manifested as a key contender’s bout against the highly dangerous Brazilian ground specialist, Jailton Almeida (20-3 MMA, 8-1 UFC). Almeida boasts an impressive 8-1 record in the UFC, with seven of those victories coming by finish, including four submissions. Almeida enters this stylistic clash as a slight betting favorite, largely due to Volkov’s historically inconsistent takedown defense, a vulnerability that the 36-year-old veteran has often displayed. The matchup presents a classic striker-versus-grappler dynamic, with Volkov’s formidable striking and reach advantage squaring off against Almeida’s relentless pressure and elite jiu-jitsu. A victory for Volkov, provided he isn’t subsequently leapfrogged by a returning Jon Jones or a rising contender like Alex Pereira, would likely position him for a long-sought-after UFC title shot – a distinction that has remained elusive for the former Bellator MMA champion throughout his decorated career.

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