UFC 321: Aspinall-Gane Heavyweight Title Showdown Dominates Abu Dhabi Card Amid Divisional Shake-Up

For the first time since Jon Jones’ victory over Ciryl Gane in March 2023, the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s undisputed heavyweight championship will be contested without an active interim title in contention. Tom Aspinall, who previously held the interim belt and has since been elevated to undisputed champion, is set to make his inaugural defense against Ciryl Gane this Saturday. The highly anticipated bout headlines UFC 321 in Abu Dhabi, marking a pivotal moment for a division that has experienced significant flux in recent years. The heavyweight landscape has been largely shaped by the prolonged inactivity of former champion Jon Jones and his stated disinclination to face Aspinall. In a significant development in June, Jones announced his retirement and vacated the title, only to reverse course days later, confirming intentions to return to competition later this year. As the promotion prepares for its 22nd event in the capital city of the United Arab Emirates, several key narratives underscore the significance of the upcoming fight card.

1. Immense Pressure Rests on Tom Aspinall’s Shoulders

Despite a formidable record of success in the Octagon, questions persist regarding the full scope of Tom Aspinall’s capabilities. The 32-year-old Englishman boasts an impressive 9-1 record within the UFC, with eight of those victories coming via stoppage. His lone loss within the promotion occurred due to a knee injury against Curtis Blaydes in July 2022, an outcome he later avenged by knocking out Sergei Pavlovich to claim the interim title. However, Aspinall has yet to compete beyond the second round in his 18 professional fights, raising inquiries about his endurance over the championship distance of five rounds. Aspects of his ground game, though highly touted by his camp, remain largely untested at the elite level, as does his chin in a prolonged striking exchange.

Aspinall’s fighting style is characterized by fast hands and immense knockout power. Yet, analysts have noted a tendency for his chin to be exposed when backpedaling, a vulnerability that has, to date, gone unpunished. Adding to the narrative, Jon Jones consistently questioned Aspinall’s abilities, marketability, and long-term viability, often using these points to justify his reluctance to defend the title against the rising Brit. With Aspinall entering this fight as a substantial betting favorite, exceeding 4-to-1 against Gane, a loss of any kind could inadvertently lend credence to Jones’ dismissive remarks. Consequently, Aspinall faces the imperative to deliver a definitive performance against Gane, not only to solidify his undisputed status but also to unequivocally demonstrate that Jones’ hesitation to face him stemmed from a genuine threat rather than perceived shortcomings. A victory would firmly establish Aspinall as the rightful heir to the heavyweight throne and validate his status as a dynamic and explosive talent poised to lead the division.

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2. A Championship Crossroads for Ciryl Gane

For the 35-year-old Ciryl Gane, this bout represents what many perceive as his final opportunity to claim the undisputed heavyweight championship. When the 6-foot-5 kickboxer transitioned from Muay Thai to mixed martial arts in 2018 and subsequently joined the UFC in 2019, he was widely hailed as the prototype for the modern heavyweight. Gane quickly ascended the ranks, culminating in an interim heavyweight title victory over Derrick Lewis in August 2021, which extended his undefeated professional record to 10-0. However, the ensuing four years have seen Gane’s career plateau, with some observers noting a regression rather than continued improvement.

His ground game, a consistent area of concern, was severely exploited in two disappointing title losses: first against Francis Ngannou in January 2022 (a fight where Ngannou competed with a compromised knee), and then in a swift submission defeat to Jon Jones in March 2023, where Gane was tapped out just 2 minutes and 4 seconds into the first round. Interspersed with these title setbacks were moments of vulnerability, notably in his August 2022 knockout win over Tai Tuivasa, where Gane absorbed significant damage before securing the finish. His most recent outing in December 2024, a rematch against Alexander Volkov, resulted in a highly disputed split decision victory, a verdict openly challenged by UFC CEO Dana White. Despite a brief resurgence with a 2023 TKO win over Serghei Spivac, Gane understands the high stakes of this encounter. To overcome Aspinall, the French native will need to force the fight into the later rounds, capitalize on Aspinall’s untested cardio, and demonstrate substantial improvements in his defensive grappling to mitigate his previously exposed weaknesses on the ground.

3. Zhang Weili’s Departure Opens Women’s Strawweight Title Race

The women’s strawweight division now finds itself in a state of flux following the departure of its two-time champion, Zhang Weili. The 36-year-old Chinese superstar recently vacated her 115-pound title to pursue a historic superfight against flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko. This highly anticipated cross-divisional clash is slated to serve as the co-headliner for UFC 322 in November. Zhang’s exit, occurring at a time when the strawweight division lacks the star-powered depth it once commanded, presents an immense opportunity for a new contender to seize the vacant championship.

Enter Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern, who are set to meet in the co-main event of UFC 321 for the vacant title, a rematch of their 2020 encounter. Jandiroba, a 37-year-old former Invicta FC champion from Brazil, has experienced a remarkable resurgence in her UFC career. After losing three of her first six fights since her 2019 debut, Jandiroba is currently riding an impressive five-fight win streak. Known for her quiet demeanor but highly technical approach inside the cage, her recent run includes victories over top contenders such as Yan Xiaonan, Amanda Lemos, Loopy Godinez, and Marina Rodriguez. Dern, 32, who secured a decision victory over Jandiroba in their initial meeting, was once heralded as a future star with significant marketing potential following her 2018 debut. While Dern is currently on a two-fight winning streak, her recent record of 3-4 in her last seven fights indicates a period of inconsistency. To fulfill her championship potential against a demonstrably improved former foe, Dern will need to overcome a history of questionable game planning and refine her often-inconsistent striking technique.

4. Umar Nurmagomedov’s Quest for Bantamweight Supremacy

The bantamweight division, one of the UFC’s most competitive, faces an intriguing question: is Umar Nurmagomedov the sole fighter capable of challenging the dominance of Merab Dvalishvili? This query arises despite Nurmagomedov’s unanimous decision loss to Dvalishvili in January, a fight which was a contender’s bout rather than a title challenge, as Sean O’Malley is the reigning Bantamweight Champion. Dvalishvili, a relentless force in the division, is poised for a significant title shot, with a December rematch against former champion Petr Yan reportedly in the works.

Nurmagomedov, a cousin of UFC Hall of Famer Khabib Nurmagomedov, suffered a broken right hand in the first round of his bout against Dvalishvili. Despite the injury, he maintains that his performance was sufficient to earn the victory, a sentiment not reflected in the official scorecards of 48-47 (twice) and 49-46. Nurmagomedov possesses a well-rounded skillset, including the ability to threaten takedowns against Dvalishvili, a rare trait given the Georgian’s grappling prowess. The primary perceived gap in Nurmagomedov’s arsenal against "The Machine" was his gas tank, an area he has vowed to address in preparation for his return bout against Mario Bautista. With Dvalishvili having effectively cleared out much of the division’s top contenders, the winner of Saturday’s Nurmagomedov-Bautista clash is expected to be next in line for a shot at the bantamweight title. Nurmagomedov, installed as high as a 6-to-1 betting favorite, aims to snap Bautista’s impressive eight-fight win streak and solidify his claim for championship contention.

5. Alexander Volkov’s "Gift" Poses a Formidable Challenge

Alexander Volkov, the towering Russian heavyweight, saw his impressive five-fight win streak abruptly halted in December by a split-decision loss to Ciryl Gane, a verdict widely considered controversial and disagreed upon by a significant majority of observers. The outcome evoked memories of previous instances where Volkov had lost pivotal fights that could have propelled him into title contention, most notably his 2018 knockout loss to Derrick Lewis in the closing seconds of a fight he was dominating. Recognizing the injustice of the Gane decision, UFC CEO Dana White was reportedly heard consoling Volkov backstage, promising to "take care of him" in the future.

This commitment has manifested in a key contender’s bout against the highly dangerous Brazilian ground specialist Jailton Almeida. Almeida boasts an impressive 8-1 record within the UFC, with seven of those victories coming by finish, including four via submission. Almeida enters the bout as a slight betting favorite, largely due to Volkov’s documented inconsistencies in takedown defense throughout his career. However, a victory for Volkov against such a formidable grappler would be a significant statement. Should he emerge victorious, and provided he isn’t bypassed by the returning Jon Jones or the light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira (who has expressed interest in the heavyweight division), this win could finally position the former Bellator MMA champion for the elusive UFC title shot he has pursued for years.