UFC 320 Betting Insights: Deep Dive into Main Card Prop Bets for Ankalaev-Pereira Rematch and Dvalishvili-Sandhagen Title Bout

Las Vegas prepares for a pivotal night of mixed martial arts as UFC 320 takes center stage this Saturday, featuring two championship contests and several high-stakes matchups. The main event is a highly anticipated light heavyweight championship rematch between Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira, a contest that saw Ankalaev claim the title via unanimous decision in their initial encounter at UFC 315. In that first bout, Ankalaev demonstrated superior control and grappling, frustrating Pereira’s potent striking game to secure the judges’ nod across five rounds. The co-main event features a bantamweight title clash, with the relentless Merab Dvalishvili defending his crown against the unorthodox striking specialist, Cory Sandhagen. Dvalishvili enters the fight on an impressive 13-fight winning streak, having defeated a murderers’ row of contenders including two victories over Sean O’Malley, Umar Nurmagomedov, Henry Cejudo, Petr Yan, and Jose Aldo, cementing his status as one of the division’s most dominant forces since dropping his first two UFC bouts in 2017 and 2018. Sandhagen, a dynamic and creative striker, finally gets his long-awaited shot at undisputed gold after falling short in four previous title eliminators, underscoring the significance of this opportunity for his career.

Beyond the championship attractions, the main card features a compelling light heavyweight showdown between former champion Jiri Prochazka and the hard-hitting Khalil Rountree Jr. This matchup promises significant implications for the division, with both fighters looking to re-establish their title contention after recent setbacks against Alex Pereira. Prochazka, known for his unique and aggressive striking style, will face Rountree Jr., who has recently showcased devastating knockout power and a willingness to engage in thrilling exchanges. The winner of this bout could position themselves for another shot at the 205-pound strap. The preliminary card also features the return of veteran featherweight Josh Emmett, who faces the ascending Youssef Zalal in a crucial crossroads battle. Zalal, a Moroccan native, brings a seven-fight win streak into the Octagon, highlighted by impressive performances in his initial UFC appearances, three of which ended in submission victories. Emmett, renowned for his durability and power, represents a stern test for Zalal’s continued ascent.

With a card of this magnitude, the betting markets are abuzz, offering various opportunities for enthusiasts to engage with the action. Following a 2-3 outcome for predictions at UFC 319, the cumulative 2025 record stands at 20-18. This analysis will delve into prop bets for each of the five main card fights, with all selections adhering to odds of -250 or better, as sourced from DraftKings.

Abus Magomedov vs. Joe Pyfer
Related News :

Prop Bet: Fight to go the distance: No (-245)

This middleweight clash between Abus Magomedov and Joe Pyfer presents an intriguing dynamic that leans heavily towards a finish inside the scheduled distance. While the odds of -245 for the fight to not go the distance sit at the higher end of the permissible range, it serves as a robust parlay component. Joe Pyfer enters as a solid favorite at -265, but Magomedov remains a dangerous and unpredictable opponent, known for both rapid finishes and equally quick losses.

While recent fight trends for both athletes might suggest a propensity for decisions – Pyfer has gone the distance in two of his last three outings, and Magomedov in three of his last four – a broader career perspective paints a different picture. Pyfer has only seen the judges’ scorecards in three of his 17 professional fights, indicating a strong finishing instinct. Similarly, Magomedov, despite a longer career of 35 bouts, has nine decision results, highlighting a history of decisive finishes. Pyfer, a product of Dana White’s Contender Series, typically brings an aggressive, high-pressure style, while Magomedov possesses significant one-punch knockout power. The combination of their offensive capabilities and occasional defensive vulnerabilities suggests that this contest, though it may take some time to unfold, is highly unlikely to reach the final bell. Both fighters have demonstrated the ability to either secure a knockout or be stopped themselves, making an early conclusion a probable outcome.

Josh Emmett vs. Youssef Zalal
Prop Bet: Youssef Zalal via submission (+450)

The featherweight encounter between veteran Josh Emmett and rising contender Youssef Zalal offers a compelling narrative, with a significant value proposition in Zalal securing a submission victory at +450. Emmett, a perennial contender, finds himself on a 1-3 run against elite competition, including losses to Ilia Topuria and Yair Rodriguez. At 40 years old, he faces the inherent challenges of maintaining peak performance in a division increasingly dominated by younger, faster athletes.

Youssef Zalal, conversely, appears to be hitting his stride, operating at the highest level of his career. He is a physically imposing featherweight with notable speed and has increasingly leaned into his grappling prowess. Zalal averages more than two takedowns per 15 minutes, a statistic that could prove critical against Emmett’s historically leaky takedown defense, which stands at a modest 46%. Emmett’s vulnerability to submissions was notably exposed four fights ago when Yair Rodriguez caught him in an arm-triangle choke. Zalal possesses a robust and varied choke game, having successfully executed rear-naked chokes from the back and arm-triangle chokes after advancing position, as demonstrated in his recent victory over Jack Shore. Given Emmett’s age, recent form against grapplers, and Zalal’s improving submission skills and relentless takedown entries, a submission victory for Zalal presents a high-value betting opportunity. The confluence of Emmett’s declining defensive grappling and Zalal’s ascending offensive grappling makes this prop particularly attractive.

Jiri Prochazka vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Prop Bet: Under 1.5 rounds (+114)

The light heavyweight clash between Jiri Prochazka and Khalil Rountree Jr. is widely anticipated as a high-octane affair, and betting on the fight to conclude in under 1.5 rounds at +114 appears to be a well-justified play. This fight carries the palpable tension of a coin flip, with both combatants possessing the power and style to end the contest instantaneously. Prochazka, a former light heavyweight champion, has forged a wildly successful UFC career despite an unconventional and often defensively porous fighting style. While Alex Pereira has twice capitalized on Prochazka’s defensive lapses, Prochazka’s wide-open striking approach typically leads to decisive finishes, whether for or against him.

Rountree Jr. is equally willing to engage in a violent firefight, as evidenced by his recent string of impressive knockout victories over opponents like Chris Daukaus and Anthony Smith. His striking is powerful and precise, capable of exploiting any opening. The statistical profiles of both fighters further support an early finish: Rountree absorbs an average of 4.24 significant strikes per minute, while Prochazka absorbs an even higher 5.7 significant strikes per minute. Both possess fight-ending power, and their aggressive, high-volume striking styles are conducive to early exchanges that often result in knockouts. The blend of Prochazka’s unpredictable offense and Rountree’s explosive power, coupled with their shared willingness to absorb punishment to deliver it, creates a scenario perfectly primed for an early conclusion. This prop bet capitalizes on the statistical and stylistic indicators pointing towards an explosive and short-lived contest.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cory Sandhagen
Prop Bet: Merab Dvalishvili over 5.5 takedowns (-150)

The co-main event features Merab Dvalishvili defending his bantamweight championship against Cory Sandhagen, and a prop bet on Dvalishvili landing over 5.5 takedowns at -150 is strategically sound. The rationale behind this pick is rooted in Dvalishvili’s historical performance and fighting philosophy. "The Machine" averages an astounding 5.84 takedowns per 15 minutes, and this championship bout is scheduled for five full rounds, or 25 minutes, providing ample time for him to execute his grappling-heavy game plan.

While Cory Sandhagen boasts a respectable 63% takedown defense rate, this statistic is often against opponents who do not bring the same relentless, never-ending pressure and volume of takedown attempts that Dvalishvili consistently employs. Dvalishvili’s strategy is often to wear down his opponents through constant wrestling pressure, even if the initial takedown attempts are stuffed. His persistence frequently leads to successful entries as the fight progresses and opponents fatigue. Even if Dvalishvili opts to spend some time engaging in striking exchanges, his fundamental approach involves frequently seeking takedowns to control the pace and secure rounds. The oddsmakers themselves acknowledge the likelihood of this fight going the distance, with the line for it to reach the scorecards sitting at -330. If the fight indeed extends for the full five rounds, Dvalishvili will have more than enough opportunities to impose his will and accumulate the necessary takedowns to hit the over on this prop, leveraging his superior cardio and wrestling against Sandhagen’s movement and striking.

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira
Prop Bet: Fight to end by KO/TKO/DQ (-120)

The main event rematch for the light heavyweight championship between Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira presents a compelling case for a finish by KO/TKO/DQ at -120. The narrative surrounding their first encounter included Pereira’s claim of being only "40%" in terms of physical condition, while Ankalaev was observed to be fasting during Ramadan. Despite these factors, Ankalaev still managed to outland the renowned kickboxer and secure a unanimous decision.

For this rematch, both fighters are expected to be in optimal physical condition, having learned from their initial five rounds in the Octagon. Pereira, a former middleweight champion and a fighter celebrated for his devastating knockout power, remains a constant threat to end any fight with a single strike. His path to victory against a superior grappler like Ankalaev almost exclusively hinges on landing significant strikes. Conversely, Ankalaev, a precise striker with underrated power and excellent counter-striking abilities, will be looking to exploit any openings Pereira creates in his pursuit of a knockout. The high stakes of a championship rematch will likely incentivize a more aggressive approach from Pereira, who understands that allowing the fight to play out similarly to their first meeting will result in another loss. This increased aggression from Pereira could either lead to a violent, decisive success for him or create significant openings for Ankalaev to exploit with his own power and counter-striking, potentially leading to a TKO finish. The combined knockout power and the strategic imperatives for both fighters strongly suggest that this highly anticipated rematch will not reach the judges’ scorecards, culminating instead in an explosive finish.