Phoenix, AZ – The National Basketball Association slate for Thursday features a solitary contest, placing all eyes on the Footprint Center where the Phoenix Suns (3-5) are set to host the Los Angeles Clippers (3-4). The game gains significant attention not only for its exclusive slot but also due to substantial roster changes, particularly for the visiting Clippers, whose dynamic duo of James Harden and Kawhi Leonard have been ruled out. Harden is sidelined due to personal reasons, while Leonard is recovering from an ankle injury. The Suns, while missing Dillon Brooks (core injury), will feature superstar Devin Booker, making his individual performance a focal point for bettors and analysts alike.

The unique circumstances surrounding this matchup have led SportsLine’s "Inside the Lines" team to identify several compelling player prop opportunities. Central to their Thursday NBA best bets is a same-game parlay centered on Devin Booker, specifically targeting his rebounding output. Booker, currently averaging 3.9 rebounds per game this season, has been projected by the expert team to exceed 3.5 rebounds against the Clippers.

The strategic approach of targeting NBA player props has become increasingly popular within the sports betting landscape, especially with comprehensive NBA odds available across numerous online sports betting platforms and sportsbooks. The SportsLine Projection Model, a sophisticated analytical tool, plays a crucial role in this strategy. By simulating every NBA game 10,000 times, the model provides data-driven insights to uncover value in player performances, assisting bettors in refining their Thursday NBA picks. This model boasts a formidable track record, having generated over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight seasons. Heading into Week 3 of the 2025-26 NBA season, the model maintained an impressive 26-13 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, demonstrating its consistent accuracy. Such predictive power offers significant potential returns for those following its NBA betting advice on various sportsbooks and betting apps.

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Brooke Lopez (Clippers) – Over 6.5 Points (-110)

One of the prominent player prop picks for the evening involves Clippers center Brooke Lopez. Despite Lopez averaging just 7 points per game this season, a figure that has seen him go "over" the 6.5-point line in only two of seven games, SportsLine senior data analyst Stephen Oh highlights critical contextual factors for Thursday’s game.

"The line is just 6.5 to 7.5 points for a simple reason. He is averaging just 7 points per game (2-5 Over 6.5) on the Clippers," Oh explained. "But when Kawhi sat out their last game vs OKC, Lopez scored 12 points in just 16 minutes. With both Kawhi and Harden out, I see Lopez getting a few more minutes and a few more shots and contributing offensively more like he did last season on the Bucks."

The absence of both Leonard and Harden is expected to drastically alter the Clippers’ offensive hierarchy and shot distribution. Leonard and Harden are not only the team’s primary scoring options but also its main playmakers, commanding significant usage rates. Their unavailability leaves a considerable void that other players, including Lopez, will be tasked with filling. Lopez’s performance against the Oklahoma City Thunder, where he capitalized on increased opportunities without Leonard, serves as a recent precedent.

Oh further elaborated on Lopez’s historical performance, noting his offensive contributions during his tenure with the Milwaukee Bucks. "He averaged more on the road last season (12.8 per game) and is 37-7 Over 6.5 points when he played on a team that needed his offense, like the Clippers should tonight." This historical data suggests that when Lopez is required to take on a larger offensive burden, he often rises to the occasion. Against a Suns team that will likely focus its defensive efforts on Booker, the Clippers may look to generate offense through Lopez in the paint and from the perimeter, where he has demonstrated proficiency throughout his career. His ability to space the floor as a big man also provides an advantage that the depleted Clippers might lean on. This prop can be played with the latest FanDuel promo code.

Devin Booker (Suns) – Over 3.5 Rebounds (-114)

The primary focus of the "Inside the Lines" team’s best bets centers on Devin Booker’s rebounding, projecting him to exceed 3.5 boards. Booker, a prolific scorer and playmaker, is not typically known for his rebounding prowess, but specific game dynamics are anticipated to elevate his numbers.

A key factor mentioned by Stephen Oh is the potential debut of Jalen Green for the Suns. "Jalen Green should make his Suns debut tonight, and while he’s clearly not a point guard, he does have plenty of 5+ assist games on his game log, and he can hopefully take some of the taxing ball handling responsibilities off of Booker’s plate and free up Booker to get some boards," Oh stated. If Green assumes some ball-handling and playmaking duties, it could reduce Booker’s need to initiate every offensive possession, potentially allowing him to position himself more effectively for rebounding opportunities.

Booker’s current season average of 3.9 rebounds per game already places him above the proposed 3.5 line. Oh highlighted the value in this proposition, noting, "We are projecting him for 3.9, which is what he’s averaged this season. Since last season, he is 46-37 Over this line, and we always like the plus-money on a line Under his average and projection." The historical trend of Booker exceeding this line in more than half of his games since last season, combined with a projection that matches his current average, suggests a favorable outcome.

Furthermore, the absence of James Harden and Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers is expected to influence the game’s defensive intensity and shot selection. With two primary offensive threats removed, the Clippers’ offense might become less efficient, leading to more missed shots and, consequently, more rebounding opportunities for both teams. "With Harden and Kawhi out, it should also be less taxing defensively with more rebounding opportunities as well," Oh concluded. This reduction in defensive burden for Booker could allow him to exert more energy on the glass, contributing to an increased rebound total. The betting opportunity for Booker’s rebounds is enhanced by the DraftKings promo code, which offers significant bonus bets and an NBA League Pass subscription for new users.

Grayson Allen (Suns) – Under 3.5 Assists (+115)

The third key player prop pick for Thursday’s game focuses on Grayson Allen of the Suns, with a projection for him to record under 3.5 assists. Allen has seen an expanded role this season, playing major minutes (34.6 per game compared to 24.1 last season) and consequently averaging a career-high 5 assists per game, a significant increase from 2.1 last season. However, the anticipated debut of Jalen Green is a critical factor in this projection.

"With Jalen Green yet to play, Grayson Allen, who is listed as Green’s backup at SG and SF3, has been playing major minutes (34.6 min vs. 24.1 last season) and has been averaging 5 assists a game (2.1 last season)," Oh observed. "Green should cut into Allen’s minutes. But even when Allen averaged 33.5 minutes for Phoenix in 2023-24, he averaged 3.0 assists. I expect some major regression to his minutes (25 to 29) and assists (Under 4) starting tonight."

The arrival of Jalen Green is expected to impact the Suns’ backcourt and wing rotations. If Green takes on a share of the ball-handling and playmaking responsibilities, it would naturally reduce Allen’s opportunities to create for teammates. Even in a previous season (2023-24) where Allen played substantial minutes (33.5), his assist average remained at 3.0, suggesting that his current elevated assist numbers might be a byproduct of increased responsibility in Green’s absence rather than a sustainable trend. The expectation is that Allen’s minutes will decrease to the 25-29 range, which, historically, aligns with lower assist totals for him. The plus-money odds on this prop also offer an attractive return for bettors. This pick is also available with the DraftKings promo code.

As the sole NBA game on Thursday, the matchup between the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers takes center stage. The significant absences for the Clippers, combined with the Suns’ own adjustments, create a dynamic environment ripe for player prop betting. The SportsLine Projection Model’s data-driven insights, along with detailed analysis from experts like Stephen Oh, provide a comprehensive framework for identifying value in these propositions. Bettors looking for further expert analysis and additional NBA picks can find extensive resources at SportsLine. Additionally, NBA expert Matt Severance has started the season strong, with a record of 21-12 (+597) in his first 33 NBA picks this season, offering another valuable source for informed betting decisions.

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