Ali Akbar Rosady
UFC 325 is set to unfold at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney this Saturday, January 31, headlined by a pivotal featherweight championship rematch between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes. Volkanovski, currently ranked No. 1 in the featherweight division and No. 8 pound-for-pound, aims to extend his reign and etch his name further into UFC history as he attempts to become the oldest fighter to successfully defend the featherweight title at 37 years of age. His opponent, Diego Lopes, ranked No. 3 in the division, seeks redemption following their initial encounter ten months prior, which Volkanovski won by unanimous decision.
The decision to schedule a rematch within a relatively short timeframe has generated discussion among observers, particularly given Volkanovski’s decisive victory in their first bout. However, the UFC has positioned the event around Volkanovski’s status as a formidable hometown hero, capitalizing on the fervent Australian fanbase. The card features a series of high-stakes matchups, including a highly anticipated co-main event lightweight clash between Dan Hooker and Benoit Saint Denis, alongside other significant bouts in the lightweight and heavyweight divisions.
Main Event: Alexander Volkanovski (1, P4P-8) vs. Diego Lopes (3)
Alexander Volkanovski (26-3-0 professional MMA record) enters this championship defense with a career defined by tactical precision, relentless pressure, and exceptional resilience. His first encounter with Diego Lopes (24-6-0) at UFC 314 saw him navigate a challenging five-round contest, ultimately securing a unanimous decision victory with scores of 49-46, 49-46, and 48-47. In that bout, Volkanovski demonstrated his superior striking accuracy and takedown defense, while Lopes showcased his dangerous submission game and powerful striking, particularly in moments where he managed to connect.
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Lopes, a dynamic striker and grappler, has rapidly ascended the featherweight rankings since his UFC debut. Known for his aggressive style and opportunistic submissions, Lopes presents a significant threat, especially if he can exploit any perceived decline in Volkanovski’s physical capabilities due to age or accumulated fight mileage. His ability to threaten with takedowns and offensive grappling could open up striking opportunities, an area where he demonstrated flashes of brilliance in their first meeting.
However, Volkanovski’s track record against elite competition, including multiple defenses against top contenders, underscores his consistent ability to adapt and overcome adversity. His robust grappling defense, particularly his ability to avoid being controlled on the mat, has been a hallmark of his championship reign, a skill that will be crucial against Lopes’s submission threats. While Lopes possesses the speed and power to potentially catch Volkanovski, the champion’s experience in championship rounds and his well-rounded skill set suggest a high probability of him once again navigating the challenge. The prevailing assessment leans towards Volkanovski leveraging his technical advantages and unparalleled grit to secure another decision victory, reaffirming his status at the top of the featherweight division.
Co-Main Event: Dan Hooker (7) vs. Benoit Saint Denis (8)
The co-main event features a lightweight contest between two fighters renowned for their aggressive styles: Dan Hooker (23-12-0) and Benoit Saint Denis (14-2-0, 1 NC). This matchup is widely anticipated for its potential to deliver a high-octane encounter, characteristic of both competitors.
Dan Hooker, a veteran of the lightweight division, has built a reputation as a durable and technically sound striker. However, his career has also been marked by inconsistencies, particularly concerning his takedown defense. Despite his impressive striking arsenal and resilience, Hooker has historically struggled against opponents who can consistently secure takedowns and maintain ground control. His recent performances have seen him oscillate between impressive victories and challenging losses, raising questions about his current standing as an "elite gatekeeper" in the division.
Benoit Saint Denis, a former French Special Forces operative, has rapidly emerged as a formidable force in the lightweight division. Known for his relentless pressure, powerful striking, and formidable grappling, Saint Denis employs a high-volume, aggressive approach that aims to overwhelm opponents. His 2023 campaign marked a significant bounce-back, where he recorded three finishes in six months, demonstrating a focused and destructive form after experiencing setbacks against more experienced opponents like Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano in 2022. Saint Denis’s style, characterized by a constant pursuit of takedowns and ground-and-pound, poses a significant threat to Hooker’s known vulnerabilities.
The tactical dynamic of this fight will likely center on Saint Denis’s ability to close the distance and implement his grappling-heavy offense against Hooker’s attempts to keep the fight standing and utilize his reach and striking precision. Given Saint Denis’s momentum and aggressive ground game, the projection favors him to secure takedowns and inflict damage from top control, potentially leading to a stoppage.
Main Card Lightweight Bout: Rafael Fiziev (T11) vs. Mauricio Ruffy
This lightweight encounter pits the dynamic striking of Rafael Fiziev (12-3-0) against the athletic prowess of Mauricio Ruffy (9-1-0). Fiziev, currently tied for 11th in the lightweight rankings, is celebrated for his sophisticated striking techniques, including a diverse array of kicks and powerful combinations. His ability to manage distance and find angles against opponents of varying builds has been a consistent feature of his performances, with the exception of his bout against Justin Gaethje.
Mauricio Ruffy, while less experienced at the elite level, possesses a rangy and athletic frame that could present challenges for Fiziev. Both fighters are known for incorporating unorthodox and spinning techniques into their striking, promising a technically engaging and potentially explosive contest. Fiziev’s defensive capabilities, particularly his "Matrix-like" head movement and evasiveness, are expected to be key in neutralizing Ruffy’s offense. The prediction for this bout favors Fiziev to outmaneuver Ruffy, controlling the distance and landing the more significant strikes en route to a decision victory in what is anticipated to be a high-level striking exchange.
Main Card Heavyweight Bout: Tai Tuivasa vs. Tallison Teixeira
The heavyweight division clash features Australia’s own Tai Tuivasa (14-7-0) against Tallison Teixeira (11-2-0). Tuivasa, a fan favorite known for his knockout power and walkout celebrations, enters this bout facing a critical juncture in his career. He has not secured a victory since 2022 and has not won in Australia since 2018, putting immense pressure on him to perform in front of his home crowd.
Tallison Teixeira, a less familiar name to many, showcased his susceptibility to heavy hitters in his loss to veteran Derrick Lewis. This provides a potential blueprint for Tuivasa, whose primary path to victory often involves an aggressive, come-forward striking approach aimed at securing a knockout. The fight is poised to be a high-risk, high-reward affair for Tuivasa; a knockout victory could reignite his career, while another loss could have significant implications for his future in the UFC. Despite recent struggles, the home advantage and Tuivasa’s undeniable power lead to a projection of him securing a knockout victory.
Main Card Lightweight Bout: Quillan Salkilld vs. Jamie Mullarkey
In a late-notice lightweight bout, Quillan Salkilld (7-1-0) faces veteran Jamie Mullarkey (17-7-0). Mullarkey steps in on less than a month’s notice to replace Rongzhu, accepting a challenging matchup against a rising talent. Mullarkey, a 12-year veteran, has historically faced difficulties against athletic strikers, a description that aligns well with Salkilld’s fighting style.
Salkilld, who made a significant impression with a knockout victory over Nasrat Haqparast in his previous outing, is expected to leverage his striking and evolving ground game in this contest. The expectation is that Salkilld will demonstrate his striking prowess, potentially hurting Mullarkey on the feet, before transitioning to the ground to secure a submission finish. The projected outcome is a "club-and-sub" victory for Salkilld, further solidifying his position as a promising prospect in the lightweight division.
Event Schedule and Broadcast Information:
UFC 325 will commence with the four-fight early preliminary card at 5 p.m. ET, followed by a four-fight preliminary card at 7 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card is scheduled to begin at 9 p.m. ET. The entire event will be streamed live on Paramount+.
Preliminary Card Projections:
- Billy Elekana over Junior Tafa
- Cameron Rowston over Cody Brundage
- Torrez Finney over Jacob Malkoun
- Oban Elliott over Jonathan Micallef
- Kaan Ofli over Yizha
- Dom Mar Fan over Sangwook Kim
- Sebastian Szalay over Keiichiro Nakamura
- Sulangrangbo over Lawrence Lui
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