Shane van Gisbergen Faces His Toughest Road Course Challenge Yet at COTA

The undisputed master of NASCAR’s road and street circuits, Shane van Gisbergen, arrives at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) with a unique statistical anomaly in his otherwise dominant debut season. While the three-time Supercars champion has consistently showcased his prodigious talent on courses demanding precision and adaptability, COTA remains the lone road course on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule where he has yet to claim victory. This upcoming weekend presents his most significant opportunity to conquer this final frontier, with van Gisbergen entering the fray following a full season of integration into the Trackhouse Racing program and a recent career-best oval performance.

Van Gisbergen’s arrival in NASCAR in 2023 was nothing short of sensational. His maiden Cup Series start at the Chicago Street Course yielded an improbable victory, a feat unseen in over six decades. As he transitioned to a full-time schedule with Trackhouse Racing in 2025, his prowess on road and street courses became a defining characteristic of the season. He secured pole positions and wins at Mexico City, Chicago, and Sonoma. Further asserting his dominance, he started on the front row and triumphed at Watkins Glen and the Charlotte Roval. Across these five pivotal road course events, van Gisbergen led an impressive 278 of 484 laps, commanding 57% of the laps contested.

However, the Circuit of the Americas has presented a different narrative. This weekend marks van Gisbergen’s second Cup Series appearance at the Hermann Tilke-designed Formula 1 venue, but his first as a fully integrated member of the Trackhouse Racing organization. In 2024, competing in a part-time capacity with Kaulig Racing, he finished 20th at COTA.

The 2025 season saw a more competitive outing for van Gisbergen at the Texas track. Now firmly entrenched within the Trackhouse program, he qualified sixth and led 23 laps, only to ultimately finish in the same position he started. This particular circuit has also proven elusive for van Gisbergen in the NASCAR Xfinity Series. During the 2024 O’Reilly Series race at COTA, he demonstrated strong performance, leading 20 laps after qualifying on the front row. The battle for the win, however, saw him engage in a crucial duel with Austin Hill. This intensified competition allowed Kyle Larson to capitalize, overtaking both drivers. Van Gisbergen crossed the finish line second but was relegated to 27th due to a track limits violation, adding another layer of frustration to his COTA record.

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Despite these past results, the momentum is undeniably with van Gisbergen as he heads into the 2026 season. He will participate in both the Xfinity and Cup Series races at COTA, armed with the experience of a full Cup Series season. Furthermore, his performance just days prior at Atlanta Motor Speedway, where he achieved a career-best sixth-place finish on an oval, demonstrates a broadening of his capabilities and a continuous upward trajectory. This strong oval result is also expected to place him in a preferred qualifying group for the COTA race weekend, potentially providing a crucial advantage.

It is also noteworthy that NASCAR implemented a revised layout for COTA ahead of the 2025 race, introducing a shortened version of the circuit. This alteration may offer a fresh dynamic for all competitors. As van Gisbergen seeks to extend his remarkable road course winning streak, the question remains: who among the NASCAR Cup Series field is best positioned to challenge his dominance and prevent him from adding COTA to his list of conquered circuits?

Several drivers have demonstrated consistent success at COTA, offering potential threats to van Gisbergen’s reign. In the Next Gen era, notable winners at the Texas road course include Christopher Bell (2025), William Byron (2024), Tyler Reddick (2023), and Ross Chastain (2022).

Analyzing historical performance data at COTA provides further insight into potential contenders:

• Best Average Finish at COTA:

  1. Tyler Reddick: 4.6
  2. Alex Bowman: 5.2
  3. Ross Chastain: 5.6

• Best Average Start at COTA:

  1. Tyler Reddick: 2.2
  2. Chase Elliott: 8.0
  3. Daniel Suarez: 9.2

• Most Laps Led at COTA:

  1. William Byron: 71
  2. Kyle Busch: 54
  3. Tyler Reddick: 53

• Most Poles at COTA:

  1. Tyler Reddick: 2
  2. William Byron: 2
  3. Ryan Blaney: 1

Top Favorite Beyond Van Gisbergen: Without question, Tyler Reddick emerges as a primary contender to challenge van Gisbergen at COTA. Reddick enters the 2026 season with significant momentum, having secured victories in both the Daytona 500 and the Atlanta Cup races. He is aiming for a historic three consecutive wins to open the season. At COTA specifically, Reddick boasts the best average finish among all drivers with a remarkable 4.6. Across his five starts at the track, he has secured two pole positions, four top-five finishes, and a victory in 2023. His worst finish at COTA is ninth, and he holds the distinction of having more top-five and top-ten finishes at the circuit than any other competitor driving the #45 Toyota.

The Defending Winner: Christopher Bell, despite a challenging start to his 2026 season with incidents at Daytona and Atlanta that place him 31st in the standings, is a driver who thrives at COTA. The circuit could very well serve as the stage for his much-needed rebound. Bell is not only the defending winner at COTA but also the only driver to have achieved three podium finishes at the venue. In races where he has completed the distance, his performance has been consistently strong, never finishing lower than third.

The Emerging Talent: A driver who will be closely watched is van Gisbergen’s Trackhouse Racing teammate, Connor Zilisch. Zilisch has established himself as a formidable force on road courses in the Xfinity Series, even engaging in intense head-to-head battles with van Gisbergen on several occasions. However, the transition to the Cup Series presents a steep learning curve. Despite this, Zilisch has demonstrated considerable potential, showcasing strong pace in his Cup Series debut at COTA a year ago before a mid-race incident. While the machinery differs significantly, Zilisch also secured victory in the Xfinity Series race at COTA last year, leading 26 of 65 laps, indicating a deep understanding of the circuit’s nuances. His presence as a teammate and a rising star adds another layer of intrigue to the COTA weekend.

As Shane van Gisbergen prepares for his assault on the Circuit of the Americas, the stage is set for a compelling showdown. His unparalleled road course acumen, combined with a maturing understanding of NASCAR stock cars and the support of Trackhouse Racing, positions him as a formidable favorite. Yet, the historical data and the caliber of his competitors suggest that COTA may indeed be the ultimate test of his burgeoning NASCAR legacy.

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