Roundtable: Who should (and shouldn’t) fight for UFC welterweight title next?

Makhachev, who successfully ascended from the lightweight division, cemented his welterweight reign with a decisive victory over Jack Della Maddalena. His performance highlighted his formidable skill set and adaptability across weight classes, making him a formidable champion. However, the scramble among contenders beneath him has intensified, with several fighters delivering standout performances or maintaining compelling résumés. Michael Morales and Carlos Prates stole headlines with spectacular knockouts, while Ian Machado Garry secured a crucial win over former champion Belal Muhammad. Meanwhile, longtime titleholder Kamaru Usman re-entered the win column by defeating Joaquin Buckley, and the undefeated force Shavkat Rakhmonov continues to loom large over the division.

The diverse landscape has led to considerable disagreement among fight fans and analysts regarding the most deserving challenger. A recent roundtable discussion among the MMA Fighting crew—comprising Mike Heck, Alexander K. Lee, Damon Martin, and Jed Meshew—illuminated the multifaceted arguments for and against the leading contenders, revealing the complex interplay of merit, marketability, and recent performance that influences title shot decisions within the UFC.

Michael Morales: The Rising Star with Unmatched Momentum

One of the strongest cases for an immediate title shot belongs to Michael Morales. At UFC 322, Morales delivered what many analysts consider the most impressive performance in the welterweight division this year, dominating and stopping Sean Brady. Mike Heck highlighted Morales’s "size, speed, power, and athleticism," suggesting these attributes could present a uniquely "interesting challenge" for Makhachev. Morales, still only 26 years old, boasts an undefeated professional record of 19-0, including seven victories within the UFC octagon. His climb has not been against lesser competition, with notable wins over seasoned fighters like Gilbert Burns, Neil Magny, and Jake Matthews. Alexander K. Lee echoed the sentiment, emphasizing Morales’s rapid development and readiness, stating that he "is ready right now" and has a "good shot to beat Makhachev." Lee also pointed to the potential global star power Morales could bring to the UFC if he were to upset the champion, with the entire nation of Ecuador behind him. The argument for Morales is largely based on his undeniable momentum, perfect record, and impressive recent finishes against high-level opposition.

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Kamaru Usman: The Veteran’s Resurgence and Market Appeal

Former welterweight king Kamaru Usman presents a more contentious, yet strategically appealing, case for a title shot. After regaining momentum with a victory over Joaquin Buckley, Usman’s name has re-entered the championship conversation. Damon Martin argued that despite potential criticism, Usman’s status as "one of the greatest welterweights of all time" inherently brings "more eyeballs to a title fight," a factor that historically sways UFC matchmaking. Martin also pointed out that Islam Makhachev himself has expressed interest in a showdown with Usman, suggesting mutual interest. Usman’s recent win over Buckley, a legitimate top-10 contender, and his willingness to step in on short notice to face Khamzat Chimaev at middleweight (a fight he nearly won, according to Martin, implying he might have won with more rounds) are presented as additional merits. Martin critically noted that the concept of "deserving" a title shot often gives way to strategic business decisions in the UFC, citing historical examples like Nick Diaz, Marlon Vera, and Chael Sonnen receiving opportunities that were not strictly merit-based.

However, the argument against Usman receiving an immediate shot is equally robust. Mike Heck vehemently opposed the idea, acknowledging Usman’s historical greatness but highlighting his recent record of "ONE WIN in the last four years." Heck argued that Usman’s victory over Buckley, while commendable, does not hold the same weight as Morales’s dominant win over Brady or Garry’s win over Muhammad, let alone Rakhmonov’s undefeated streak. He also pointed out that the welterweight division’s recent surge in intrigue occurred largely during Usman’s period of inactivity and losses to Leon Edwards. The notion that Usman is a massive superstar capable of generating unprecedented pay-per-view numbers was also questioned, with Heck suggesting Makhachev is the primary draw regardless of the opponent. Furthermore, a lack of widespread fan demand for an Usman vs. Makhachev bout was cited, with the call for the fight largely confined to Usman, his manager, and his podcast co-host.

Shavkat Rakhmonov: The Undefeated Terminator’s Claim

Shavkat Rakhmonov’s case is built on an unblemished professional record of 18-0, with an astonishing 100% finish rate. Jed Meshew strongly advocated for Rakhmonov, expressing bewilderment at the MMA world’s perceived "goldfish memory" regarding his dominance. Meshew emphasized that Rakhmonov "beat the guy that… is most deserving of a title shot" (referring to Ian Machado Garry) just 11 months prior in a five-round UFC fight. He further highlighted that Rakhmonov was slated to fight Belal Muhammad at UFC 310 for what could have been an interim title eliminator, but Muhammad’s injury led to its cancellation. Rakhmonov subsequently fought and sustained an injury himself, leading to his recent inactivity. Meshew argued that punishing Rakhmonov for an injury sustained after being willing to fight is "utter nonsense" and that his merit is undeniable. The core of Rakhmonov’s argument rests on his perfect record, consistent finishes, and direct wins over top contenders, making him, in Meshew’s view, the "only right choice."

Ian Machado Garry: The Talker vs. The Finisher

Ian Machado Garry has been vocal in his pursuit of a title shot, bolstering his claim with back-to-back wins over Carlos Prates and former champion Belal Muhammad. However, Damon Martin argued against Garry’s immediate title contention, despite his recent victories. Martin noted that while Garry secured wins, neither performance was particularly memorable for its "exciting finishes," contrasting with Garry’s public persona as an "executioner." His style often results in decision wins, which, while effective, might not be enough to "jump the line" over other contenders. Furthermore, Garry’s prior loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov is a significant point of contention, with Martin suggesting that Rakhmonov holds a stronger claim. Martin proposed that Garry should take another fight, ideally against Michael Morales, to further solidify his readiness and demonstrate a more definitive path to a championship opportunity.

Carlos Prates: A Glimpse of Potential, But Not Yet

Carlos Prates, who also delivered a spectacular knockout at UFC Qatar, initially generated buzz for his highlight-reel finishes, with all six of his UFC victories coming via knockout. Alexander K. Lee acknowledged Prates’s exciting style and "puncher’s chance" against Makhachev, noting the fan appeal for such a matchup. However, Lee ultimately argued against Prates receiving an immediate title shot, citing his recent loss to Ian Machado Garry. Lee suggested that Prates, still in his prime, would be better served by continuing to develop and prove himself over the next few years before challenging for the championship.

The welterweight division stands at a pivotal juncture. While Islam Makhachev awaits his next challenger, the UFC faces a complex decision balancing pure sporting merit, fighter activity, drawing power, and the narratives of both rising stars and seasoned veterans. Each contender presents a unique set of circumstances, ensuring that the eventual decision will ignite further debate within the mixed martial arts world.