Renato Moicano Forecasts Imminent Retirement for Islam Makhachev, Potentially Following Welterweight Title Bid Against Jack Della Maddalena.

Renato Moicano, a prominent figure in the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s lightweight division, has presented a compelling perspective on the potential conclusion of reigning lightweight champion Islam Makhachev’s mixed martial arts career. Moicano suggests that Makhachev, widely regarded as one of the sport’s most dominant athletes, may have a limited number of fights remaining, potentially eyeing retirement as early as 2025, particularly if a move to the welterweight division proves successful.

Moicano’s insights were shared during an interview with MMA Fighting, where he elaborated on a hypothetical trajectory for Makhachev. His comments are predicated on a future scenario where Makhachev, after relinquishing his lightweight title, transitions to welterweight to challenge Jack Della Maddalena – whom Moicano identifies as the 170-pound champion – in a hypothetical main event at UFC 322 on November 15 at Madison Square Garden. Moicano, who states he previously stepped in on short notice to face Makhachev for the lightweight title when Arman Tsarukyan reportedly withdrew from UFC 311 due to health issues, believes this pursuit of a second UFC belt could mark the twilight of Makhachev’s career.

Islam Makhachev, currently holding an impressive professional record of 25 wins and 1 loss, has established himself as the undisputed lightweight champion, a title he successfully defended multiple times since capturing it in October 2022. His fighting style, characterized by a suffocating wrestling game, elite grappling, and continuously improving striking, has drawn frequent comparisons to his mentor and former lightweight king, Khabib Nurmagomedov. Makhachev’s sole professional defeat came in October 2015 against Adriano Martins at UFC 192, a first-round knockout loss that remains an anomaly in an otherwise pristine career. His recent victories include a dominant performance against Charles Oliveira, securing the lightweight strap, and subsequent defenses against Alexander Volkanovski.

The hypothetical opponent in Moicano’s discussed scenario, Jack Della Maddalena, is a rising star in the welterweight division, known for his dynamic striking and aggressive approach. While Della Maddalena has quickly ascended the ranks, boasting a professional record of 17 wins and 2 losses, he is currently ranked as a top contender, not the reigning 170-pound champion. The welterweight title is presently held by Leon Edwards. Della Maddalena has strung together an impressive winning streak in the UFC, demonstrating significant knockout power and technical prowess, making him a formidable challenge for any opponent, including a lightweight champion moving up a division. The prospect of Makhachev challenging a top welterweight like Della Maddalena for a title, as framed by Moicano, underscores the ambition attributed to the Dagestani fighter.

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Moicano articulated his rationale, stating, “Let’s suppose he beats Jack Della Maddalena. He’s going to look for someone that’s more favorable and see if the UFC does that. If not, bye. And if he wins one more, also bye. And he’s right, can’t stay too much longer.” This sentiment reflects a belief that elite fighters, once they achieve significant financial success and championship status across multiple divisions, often consider exiting the sport to preserve their legacy and health.

The Brazilian fighter drew a parallel to the career of Jose Aldo, a revered figure in mixed martial arts. Aldo, a former UFC and WEC featherweight champion, is widely considered one of the greatest fighters of all time, known for his explosive striking, formidable takedown defense, and long reign at the top. After an initial retirement from the UFC, Aldo ventured into professional boxing before making a highly anticipated return to the octagon in May 2024, securing a unanimous decision victory over Jonathan Martinez in Rio de Janeiro. However, following this win, Aldo subsequently faced back-to-back decision losses to Mario Bautista and Aiemann Zahabi.

Moicano expressed his disappointment with Aldo’s decision to continue fighting, believing it tarnished a potentially perfect retirement narrative. “It’s like I say – I did a video about Jose Aldo and got a lot of hate. ‘Oh, you’re talking about Jose Aldo’s legacy.’ As a fan, I didn’t like that he came back. He could have ended his career a better way,” Moicano explained. He argued that a "prime Aldo" would have likely dominated those later matchups, highlighting the diminishing returns of prolonged careers at the sport’s highest level.

Moicano, acknowledging his own position in the sport, differentiated his motivations from those of a multi-divisional champion. “People were like, ‘How about you, losing fights and continue fighting?’ But I’m not Jose Aldo, I’m not Islam Makhachev, I’m Renato Moicano. I’m fighting [for money]. I’ll be like Tony Ferguson, seven losses in a row [laughs].” This candid assessment underscores the diverse motivations driving fighters, from legacy-building to financial security. Tony Ferguson, a former interim lightweight champion, has indeed faced a challenging period in his career, experiencing a series of losses since 2020, a testament to the brutal longevity demands of the sport.

For Moicano, the ideal scenario for a fighter with a significant legacy is to retire at the pinnacle of their success, echoing the path of Khabib Nurmagomedov. Khabib, Islam Makhachev’s esteemed teammate and mentor, retired as the undefeated lightweight champion with a flawless 29-0 record in October 2020, following a dominant submission victory over Justin Gaethje. His retirement, motivated by a promise to his mother after the passing of his father, Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, solidified his status as one of the sport’s most dominant and respected figures, leaving behind an unparalleled legacy of invincibility.

Moicano emphasized this point, stating, “Now, if you have a big legacy, if you’re undefeated, brother, win the belt and walk away because if you continue fighting, you’ll lose. Do like Khabib [Nurmagomedov], take the belt and let people say whatever they want. Brother, go live the rest of your life as an undefeated champion. That’s what I think.”

Applying this philosophy to Makhachev, Moicano concluded, “Islam Makhachev, even though he lost to Adriano Martins – so he will never be compared to Khabib because of that – he’s a protege of Khabib. But if he goes up and wins the 170 belt, you better retire, brother. You already have the money, already have the recognition, so it’s an entire life bearing the fruits of the seeds he planted.”

Moicano’s comments highlight a recurring discussion within combat sports regarding the optimal timing for a champion’s retirement. While the pursuit of multi-divisional championships is a significant achievement, the physical toll and the risk of career-defining losses often weigh heavily on a fighter’s decision-making. Makhachev’s current trajectory, as envisioned by Moicano, places him at a critical juncture where a potential second championship could open the door to an early, legacy-defining retirement, mirroring the path of his legendary mentor, Khabib Nurmagomedov. The actual future events and Makhachev’s decisions remain to be seen, but Moicano’s analysis offers a thought-provoking glimpse into the considerations of an elite athlete’s career longevity.