NHL's First Month: Teams Charting Unexpected Courses Against Preseason Point Projections

The 2025-26 National Hockey League season officially marked its one-month milestone on Friday, November 7th. While early in the 82-game campaign, initial trends are already revealing significant divergences between team performance and their preseason expectations. This edition of the Power Rankings, compiled by a panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters, and editors, assesses each team’s current points pace against their projected over/under point totals from the preseason. The rankings, based on games played through Wednesday, November 5th, with points percentages updated through Thursday, November 6th, aim to highlight which franchises are notably exceeding or falling short of their initial projections. The expert panel contributes a 1-32 poll, generating the definitive list.

1. Colorado Avalanche
Previous ranking: 1
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Points percentage: 75%
Preseason O/U: 103.5
Current points pace: 123

The Colorado Avalanche continue to assert their dominance at the top of the league. Projected for a strong season with a triple-digit over/under of 103.5 points, the Avalanche are significantly outperforming expectations, currently on a pace to accumulate an impressive 123 points. Their formidable start includes just one regulation loss through 14 games, establishing them as an early Stanley Cup favorite. This consistency underscores their status as a premier Western Conference power.
Next seven days: The Avalanche face a challenging road trip, visiting Edmonton (Nov. 8) and Vancouver (Nov. 9), before returning home to host Anaheim (Nov. 11) and Buffalo (Nov. 13).

2. Montreal Canadiens
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 71.4%
Preseason O/U: 90.5
Current points pace: 117.1

A surprising participant in the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs, the Montreal Canadiens have defied preseason expectations by emerging as one of the most dominant teams early in the 2025-26 season. Despite a preseason over/under of 90.5 points, indicating a projected mid-tier performance, the Canadiens are currently playing at a remarkable 117.1-point pace. This unexpected surge suggests a significant leap in their development and competitiveness.
Next seven days: Montreal will play three home games, hosting Utah (Nov. 8), Los Angeles (Nov. 11), and Dallas (Nov. 13).

3. Winnipeg Jets
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 69.2%
Preseason O/U: 97.5
Current points pace: 113.5

The Winnipeg Jets, who secured the Presidents’ Trophy last season with 116 points, were widely expected by oddsmakers to regress somewhat this season, with a preseason over/under of 97.5 points. However, the Jets have shown no signs of slowing down, currently maintaining a strong 113.5-point pace. Their early performance positions them as formidable contenders, challenging the Avalanche for the top spot in the Central Division.
Next seven days: The Jets embark on a West Coast road trip, facing San Jose (Nov. 7), Anaheim (Nov. 9), Vancouver (Nov. 11), and Seattle (Nov. 13).

4. New Jersey Devils
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 71.4%
Preseason O/U: 99.5
Current points pace: 117.1

As a 2025 playoff contender, the New Jersey Devils were projected to be a strong postseason team again this spring, with a preseason over/under of 99.5 points. They are not only meeting but exceeding those expectations, currently on a pace to secure 117.1 points, which is ahead of their performance last season. This robust start indicates continued growth and a solid foundation for another deep playoff run.
Next seven days: The Devils have a mix of home and away games, hosting Pittsburgh (Nov. 8) and the New York Islanders (Nov. 10), before traveling to Chicago (Nov. 12).

5. Vegas Golden Knights
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 65.4%
Preseason O/U: 104.5
Current points pace: 107.2

The Vegas Golden Knights, consistently a dominant force in the Western Conference, continue their strong play. With a preseason over/under of 104.5 points, they are currently on pace for 107.2 points, aligning closely with their high expectations. Center Jack Eichel has been a standout performer, demonstrating the caliber of a leading Hart Trophy candidate and driving the team’s sustained success.
Next seven days: Vegas will enjoy a three-game homestand, welcoming Anaheim (Nov. 8), Florida (Nov. 10), and the New York Islanders (Nov. 13).

6. Utah Mammoth
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 64.3%
Preseason O/U: 92.5
Current points pace: 105.4

The newly established Utah Mammoth are quickly making a name for themselves, dramatically outperforming their preseason over/under of 92.5 points with a current pace of 105.4 points. This strong start raises questions about Salt Lake City’s readiness to host playoff hockey, as the Mammoth appear to be trending firmly in that direction. The team’s impressive young core is proving to be one of the NHL’s most exciting developments.
Next seven days: The Mammoth face a road trip, visiting Montreal (Nov. 8) and Ottawa (Nov. 9), before returning home to play Buffalo (Nov. 12).

7. Carolina Hurricanes
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 69.2%
Preseason O/U: 105.5
Current points pace: 113.5

The Carolina Hurricanes are once again demonstrating their consistent ability to finish seasons with triple-digit point totals. Projected with a robust preseason over/under of 105.5 points, the Hurricanes are currently exceeding that benchmark, on track for 113.5 points. Their strong start indicates another season of high performance and a likely deep playoff push.
Next seven days: Carolina hosts Buffalo (Nov. 8), then travels to Toronto (Nov. 9), and returns home to play Washington (Nov. 11).

8. Anaheim Ducks
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 73.1%
Preseason O/U: 83.5
Current points pace: 119.8

The Anaheim Ducks have emerged as one of the season’s most significant surprises. An article in the season’s initial week speculated whether the Ducks had successfully built the next formidable Western Conference power, and their performance through the first month has provided a resounding affirmative answer. With a preseason over/under of just 83.5 points, Anaheim is currently on an extraordinary pace for 119.8 points, marking a dramatic and unexpected resurgence.
Next seven days: The Ducks face a challenging week with a road game against Vegas (Nov. 8), a home game against Winnipeg (Nov. 9), another road game at Colorado (Nov. 11), and a visit to Detroit (Nov. 13).

9. Detroit Red Wings
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 64.3%
Preseason O/U: 84.5
Current points pace: 105.4

The Detroit Red Wings are showing strong signs that General Manager Steve Yzerman’s long-term strategic plan, colloquially known as the "Yzerplan," is finally yielding significant results. Projected for 84.5 points, the Red Wings are currently performing at a 105.4-point pace, putting them well on track to return to the postseason and re-establish their presence as a competitive force.
Next seven days: Detroit hosts the New York Rangers (Nov. 7), Chicago (Nov. 9), and Anaheim (Nov. 13).

10. Pittsburgh Penguins
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 66.7%
Preseason O/U: 77.5
Current points pace: 109.3

Preseason discussions around the Pittsburgh Penguins largely centered on speculation regarding captain Sidney Crosby’s future, with many questioning whether he would be traded to a contending team. Current performance, however, suggests Crosby is already leading a contender. With a modest preseason over/under of 77.5 points, the Penguins are significantly overperforming, currently on pace for an impressive 109.3 points, silencing trade rumors with their strong play.
Next seven days: Pittsburgh has two road games, visiting New Jersey (Nov. 8) and Los Angeles (Nov. 9).

11. Dallas Stars
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 60.7%
Preseason O/U: 103.5
Current points pace: 99.6

The Dallas Stars were expected by prognosticators to deliver an elite performance this season, with a preseason over/under of 103.5 points. They are currently maintaining a near 100-point pace (99.6), largely meeting those high expectations. The primary question for the Stars now shifts to the spring, focusing on whether this formidable roster can finally overcome the Western Conference finals hurdle and advance further in the playoffs.
Next seven days: Dallas begins with a road game in Nashville (Nov. 8), then hosts Seattle (Nov. 9), before another road trip to Ottawa (Nov. 11) and Montreal (Nov. 13).

12. Toronto Maple Leafs
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 60.7%
Preseason O/U: 99.5
Current points pace: 99.6

In a rare instance of precise prediction, the sportsbooks appear to have accurately forecasted the Toronto Maple Leafs’ performance. With a preseason over/under of 99.5 points, the Leafs are currently tracking at an identical 99.6-point pace. The immediate focus for Toronto will be how this consistent point production positions them within the competitive Eastern Conference playoff picture as the season progresses.
Next seven days: The Maple Leafs are set for a busy week with two matchups against Boston, hosting the Bruins (Nov. 8) and then visiting them (Nov. 11). They also host Carolina (Nov. 9) and Los Angeles (Nov. 13).

13. Washington Capitals
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 53.6%
Preseason O/U: 96.5
Current points pace: 87.9

Similar to the Winnipeg Jets, the Washington Capitals were projected to experience a decline in performance this season. Their current trajectory confirms those expectations, as they are notably behind their preseason over/under of 96.5 points, currently on pace for 87.9 points. This step back suggests a period of adjustment for the team as they navigate the competitive Metropolitan Division.
Next seven days: Washington visits Tampa Bay (Nov. 8) and Carolina (Nov. 11), then travels to Florida (Nov. 13).

14. Seattle Kraken
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 61.5%
Preseason O/U: 78.5
Current points pace: 100.9

Excluding their single playoff appearance in 2023, the Seattle Kraken had largely struggled to find consistent success, often "treading water" despite their fearsome moniker. However, under new coach Lane Lambert, the team appears to have found a new direction. Against a preseason over/under of 78.5 points, the Kraken are significantly overperforming, currently on pace for 100.9 points, indicating a potential return to playoff contention.
Next seven days: Seattle visits St. Louis (Nov. 8) and Dallas (Nov. 9), then returns home to host Columbus (Nov. 11) and Winnipeg (Nov. 13).

15. Philadelphia Flyers
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 60.7%
Preseason O/U: 83.5
Current points pace: 99.6

After a period of simmering development over the past two seasons, the Philadelphia Flyers appear to be emerging as legitimate playoff contenders in the inaugural year of the Rick Tocchet era. With a preseason over/under of 83.5 points, the Flyers are currently performing at a strong 99.6-point pace, suggesting their rebuild is bearing fruit and they are ready to compete in the Eastern Conference.
Next seven days: Philadelphia hosts Ottawa (Nov. 8) and Edmonton (Nov. 12).

16. Los Angeles Kings
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 53.3%
Preseason O/U: 98.5
Current points pace: 87.5

The final season of legendary Kings center Anze Kopitar’s illustrious career has not commenced as many anticipated. Projected with a robust preseason over/under of 98.5 points, the Los Angeles Kings are currently significantly underperforming, on pace for only 87.5 points. This slow start raises concerns about their playoff aspirations in a highly competitive Western Conference.
Next seven days: The Kings embark on an Eastern Conference road swing, visiting Pittsburgh (Nov. 9), Montreal (Nov. 11), and Toronto (Nov. 13).

17. Tampa Bay Lightning
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 57.1%
Preseason O/U: 101.5
Current points pace: 93.7

The Tampa Bay Lightning endured a difficult start to the season, securing only one win in their initial seven games, which placed them in a substantial early hole. However, a subsequent five-game winning streak has helped them significantly recover. With a preseason over/under of 101.5 points, their current 93.7-point pace is still below expectations, prompting questions about which version of this team will ultimately prevail through the remainder of the season.
Next seven days: Tampa Bay hosts Washington (Nov. 8) and the New York Rangers (Nov. 12).

18. Edmonton Oilers
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 53.3%
Preseason O/U: 103.5
Current points pace: 87.5

Throughout the offseason and much of the preseason, concerns lingered about the potential distraction of Connor McDavid’s contract status beyond the 2025-26 season. Despite McDavid signing an extension on the eve of the campaign, the Edmonton Oilers have struggled out of the gates. Projected for 103.5 points, they are currently on pace for only 87.5 points, indicating a significant early-season underperformance.
Next seven days: The Oilers host Colorado (Nov. 8) and Columbus (Nov. 10), then travel to Philadelphia (Nov. 12) and Columbus (Nov. 13).

19. Columbus Blue Jackets
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 53.9%
Preseason O/U: 84.5
Current points pace: 88.3

Following a season where the Blue Jackets remained in playoff contention until the final weeks of 2024-25, there was an expectation that they would surmount previous hurdles and return to the postseason this year. While they still might achieve that goal, their current 88.3-point pace, slightly above their 84.5 preseason over/under, suggests they will need to accelerate their performance to secure a playoff berth.
Next seven days: Columbus visits Vancouver (Nov. 8), Edmonton (Nov. 10), and Seattle (Nov. 11), before hosting Edmonton (Nov. 13).

20. Boston Bruins
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 56.3%
Preseason O/U: 80.5
Current points pace: 92.3

The Boston Bruins are navigating a period of transition, anticipating the arrival of their 2025 lottery pick, James Hagens, to assume the role of franchise center. Despite this rebuilding phase, the Bruins have performed better than many expected. With a preseason over/under of 80.5 points, they are currently tracking at a 92.3-point pace, indicating a more competitive start than projected.
Next seven days: Boston has two games against Toronto, visiting the Maple Leafs (Nov. 8) and then hosting them (Nov. 11). They also visit Ottawa (Nov. 13).

21. Chicago Blackhawks
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 53.6%
Preseason O/U: 67.5
Current points pace: 87.9

The Chicago Blackhawks are another team dramatically exceeding their preseason expectations. With a modest over/under of 67.5 points, they are currently performing at an impressive 87.9-point pace. While it may be premature to declare Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar, and their teammates legitimate contenders, the early pieces are clearly falling into place for a serious competitive run in the coming seasons.
Next seven days: Chicago visits Calgary (Nov. 7) and Detroit (Nov. 9), then hosts New Jersey (Nov. 12).

22. Ottawa Senators
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 53.6%
Preseason O/U: 95.5
Current points pace: 87.9

An injury to captain Brady Tkachuk, which is expected to keep him sidelined until after American Thanksgiving following thumb surgery, has noticeably impacted the Ottawa Senators’ early season momentum. Projected for 95.5 points, the Senators are currently operating at an 87.9-point pace, falling short of their preseason expectations. Tkachuk’s return is highly anticipated to re-energize the team.
Next seven days: Ottawa visits Philadelphia (Nov. 8), hosts Utah (Nov. 9), then hosts Dallas (Nov. 11) and Boston (Nov. 13).

23. New York Islanders
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 53.9%
Preseason O/U: 84.5
Current points pace: 88.3

Thanks in large part to what is shaping up to be a historic rookie season for 2025 first overall pick Matthew Schaefer, the New York Islanders are gradually moving into the "must-watch" category. With a preseason over/under of 84.5 points, the Islanders are currently exceeding that projection with an 88.3-point pace, signaling a promising new direction for the franchise.
Next seven days: The Islanders host Minnesota (Nov. 7), then visit the New York Rangers (Nov. 8), New Jersey (Nov. 10), and Vegas (Nov. 13).

24. Florida Panthers
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 53.6%
Preseason O/U: 106.5
Current points pace: 87.9

The Florida Panthers, the back-to-back reigning champions, are experiencing a challenging start to the season, which is largely attributable to significant injuries. With Aleksander Barkov sidelined for the regular season and Matthew Tkachuk expected to be out until December, it is unsurprising that the team is currently underperforming its high preseason over/under of 106.5 points, operating at an 87.9-point pace. This represents a temporary step backward for the championship-caliber roster.
Next seven days: Florida visits San Jose (Nov. 8) and Vegas (Nov. 10), then hosts Washington (Nov. 13).

25. Buffalo Sabres
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 50%
Preseason O/U: 83.5
Current points pace: 82

The Buffalo Sabres continue their pursuit of ending the longest playoff drought in North American professional sports. While there remains optimism for the future, their current performance suggests that this season will likely not be the year the drought concludes. With a preseason over/under of 83.5 points, the Sabres are currently tracking slightly below that at an 82-point pace, indicating another season of rebuilding efforts.
Next seven days: Buffalo visits Carolina (Nov. 8), Utah (Nov. 12), and Colorado (Nov. 13).

26. New York Rangers
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 50%
Preseason O/U: 95.5
Current points pace: 82

Over the past 12 months, the New York Rangers have undergone significant roster changes, including the trades of Jacob Trouba, Chris Kreider, and K’Andre Miller, the acquisition of J.T. Miller, and the hiring of Mike Sullivan as head coach. Despite these considerable efforts to retool, the new composition has yet to yield improved results. Projected for 95.5 points, the Rangers are currently on an 82-point pace, indicating a notable underperformance relative to expectations.
Next seven days: The Rangers visit Detroit (Nov. 7), host the New York Islanders (Nov. 8), host Nashville (Nov. 10), and visit Tampa Bay (Nov. 12).

27. Vancouver Canucks
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 46.7%
Preseason O/U: 90.5
Current points pace: 76.5

After missing the playoffs by a mere six points in the 2024-25 season, the Vancouver Canucks are experiencing a challenging start to the 2025-26 campaign. Projected for 90.5 points in the preseason, they are currently tracking significantly off that pace, with a current points pace of 76.5. This substantial deviation indicates a difficult initial month for the team.
Next seven days: Vancouver hosts Columbus (Nov. 8), Colorado (Nov. 9), and Winnipeg (Nov. 11).

28. Nashville Predators
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 43.8%
Preseason O/U: 86.5
Current points pace: 71.8

Despite being recognized as significant winners in 2024 free agency, the Nashville Predators endured a disappointing 2024-25 season, finishing with just 68 points. While their current 71.8-point pace is slightly ahead of that low mark, it remains well below their preseason over/under of 86.5 points. One month into the season, the Predators are not yet posing a threat for a playoff spot.
Next seven days: Nashville hosts Dallas (Nov. 8) and visits the New York Rangers (Nov. 10).

29. Minnesota Wild
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 43.3%
Preseason O/U: 94.5
Current points pace: 71.1

The Minnesota Wild are struggling significantly on both ends of the ice. Their offensive output of 2.80 goals per game ranks 22nd in the NHL, while their defensive performance, allowing 3.67 goals per game, places them 29th (fourth-worst) in the league. This combination of subpar scoring and porous defense has predictably led to poor results, with the team currently on a 71.1-point pace, substantially below their preseason over/under of 94.5 points.
Next seven days: Minnesota visits the New York Islanders (Nov. 7), then hosts Calgary (Nov. 9) and San Jose (Nov. 11).

30. San Jose Sharks
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 46.4%
Preseason O/U: 70.5
Current points pace: 76.1

Last season, the San Jose Sharks were often characterized as a "fun bad team." This season, however, they appear to be shedding the "bad" label, at least partially. Against a preseason over/under of 70.5 points, the Sharks are currently performing at a 76.1-point pace. Nineteen-year-old Macklin Celebrini, a potential Canadian Olympian, has been a revelation, tallying 21 points through 14 games to share the league scoring lead and drive the team’s improved performance.
Next seven days: San Jose hosts Winnipeg (Nov. 7) and Florida (Nov. 8), then visits Minnesota (Nov. 11) and Calgary (Nov. 13).

31. St. Louis Blues
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 40%
Preseason O/U: 92.5
Current points pace: 65.6

Beyond goaltender Jordan Binnington’s notable puck-stealing antics, the 2025-26 St. Louis Blues have provided little reason for excitement. With a preseason over/under of 92.5 points, the Blues are significantly underperforming, currently on pace for only 65.6 points. While their current struggles are evident, observers are reminded of the team’s historic turnaround from a similarly dismal start that culminated in a Stanley Cup victory, offering a glimmer of hope.
Next seven days: St. Louis hosts Seattle (Nov. 8) and Calgary (Nov. 11).

32. Calgary Flames
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 33.3%
Preseason O/U: 83.5
Current points pace: 54.7

The Calgary Flames, who narrowly missed the playoffs last season due to a standings tiebreaker, are experiencing a significant downturn in the current campaign. With a preseason over/under of 83.5 points, the Flames are currently tracking at a meager 54.7-point pace, placing them at the bottom of the league. This performance raises questions about whether the team will again prioritize future assets, similar to their strategy during the 2024 trade season.
Next seven days: Calgary hosts Chicago (Nov. 7), then visits Minnesota (Nov. 9) and St. Louis (Nov. 11), before hosting San Jose (Nov. 13).