Ali Akbar Rosady
November 22, 2025 – Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season is fully underway following the Houston Texans’ 23-19 victory over the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night. As the remaining matchups loom, a panel of NFL analysts provides comprehensive last-minute preparations, delving into critical statistical trends, potential fantasy football sleepers, unexpected game outcomes, key individual matchups, and pressing quarterback situations across the league.
Analytics writer Seth Walder initiates the discussion by highlighting three statistical trends poised to significantly influence the weekend’s results. Fantasy writer Eric Moody identifies five low-rostered players with high starting potential for Week 12. NFL analyst Ben Solak forecasts four potential surprises, while Matt Bowen zeroes in on a crucial positional matchup. Sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado offers her top wager, and NFL Nation reporters address intriguing quarterback scenarios around the league.
Among the narratives examined are the debut of Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders against the Las Vegas Raiders, the fantasy prospects of Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson following a breakout Week 11, the anticipated return of Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving, and the lessons learned by Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold after a challenging Week 11 performance against the Los Angeles Rams. The analysis begins with a deep dive into statistical undercurrents shaping the upcoming slate of games.
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Walder: Three Key Statistical Trends Poised to Impact Week 12
Indianapolis Colts’ Play-Action Attack Against the Kansas City Chiefs’ Defense
The Indianapolis Colts’ offense, under head coach Shane Steichen, has established a clear identity built around a potent rushing attack and a sophisticated play-action passing game. The Colts rank second in the NFL, utilizing play-action on 33% of their dropbacks. This strategic reliance could prove particularly effective in Week 12 against the Kansas City Chiefs, whose defense, while generally respectable (ranking 13th in EPA allowed per dropback), has exhibited significant vulnerabilities against play-action. Kansas City currently ranks last in the league in EPA allowed per play-action play (0.38) and permits a 62% success rate against such schemes, placing them second-worst among all NFL defenses. For the Colts, maximizing their play-action opportunities will be paramount to sustaining drives and exploiting a specific weakness in an otherwise formidable Chiefs’ defense, crucial for a team vying for playoff positioning in the AFC South.
Las Vegas Raiders’ Pass Rush Against Shedeur Sanders in His First NFL Start
The Week 12 contest between the Cleveland Browns and the Las Vegas Raiders marks the highly anticipated NFL debut of Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders. While the Raiders’ pass rush, outside of star edge rusher Maxx Crosby, is not consistently dominant (ranking 15th in pass rush win rate, 26th in pressure rate, and 26th in sack rate), their collective effort could be amplified against a rookie quarterback. Sanders’ collegiate statistics at Colorado in 2024 revealed a tendency to create pressure on himself: he was under pressure on 39.2% of dropbacks (17th highest among 129 FBS qualifiers) and took sacks on 7.5% of dropbacks (25th highest), despite facing blitzes on only 17.9% of plays (third lowest) and experiencing initial pressure after an average of 3.1 seconds (fourth lowest). This suggests Sanders’ propensity to hold the ball, a habit that NFL defenses, particularly those featuring elite individual rushers like Crosby, are adept at punishing. The Raiders will test Sanders’ ability to adapt to NFL speed and pocket awareness from his very first snap.
Dallas Cowboys’ Deep Passing Game vs. Philadelphia Eagles’ Secondary
The NFC East rivalry game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles presents a clash of offensive strength against defensive fortitude. The Cowboys’ passing attack thrives on vertical routes, with 31% of their routes this season being downfield targets, the highest rate in the NFL. This aggressive approach has yielded significant success, with the team averaging 0.66 EPA when targeting vertical routes, a high figure even when accounting for the inherent efficiency of successful downfield plays. However, this strength runs directly into an Eagles’ defense that has proven exceptionally stingy against deep passes. Philadelphia allows a league-low 0.04 EPA per play when opponents target a vertical route, indicating elite coverage and scheme effectiveness in limiting explosive plays. The outcome of this high-stakes divisional battle may well hinge on whether Dak Prescott and the Cowboys can penetrate the Eagles’ deep coverage, or if Philadelphia’s secondary can once again neutralize Dallas’ primary aerial threat.
Moody: Five Fantasy Sleepers for Week 12
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans (36.2% rostered)
Despite sharing the backfield with Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears has carved out a significant role for the Tennessee Titans, particularly in the passing game. Over the past five games, Spears has consistently logged at least three receptions and averaged a reliable 10.1 fantasy points per contest. His workload could further increase this week against the Seattle Seahawks due to ongoing injuries to Tennessee’s wide receiver corps. The Seahawks’ defense has struggled against opposing running backs, allowing the fourth-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards per game to the position, positioning Spears for a strong Week 12 performance.
Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals (32.4% rostered)
Michael Wilson emerges as a compelling Week 12 fantasy start, largely benefiting from the absence of Marvin Harrison Jr., who has been ruled out following an appendectomy. Wilson demonstrated his upside in Week 11 against the San Francisco 49ers, achieving career highs with 15 receptions for 185 yards on a robust 31.6% target share, clearly operating as Arizona’s primary receiving option. While such volume may not be a weekly occurrence, Wilson is expected to remain heavily involved against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars’ defense has been particularly vulnerable to perimeter wide receivers since Week 6, allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position, aligning perfectly with Wilson’s role.
AJ Barner, TE, Seattle Seahawks (13.3% rostered)
Seattle Seahawks tight end AJ Barner recorded a career-high 11 targets in Week 11 against the Los Angeles Rams, culminating in 17.1 fantasy points. He has solidified his position as the Seahawks’ clear second option in the passing game, behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Furthermore, Barner is utilized in Seattle’s version of the "tush push" play, offering rare goal-line touchdown upside for a tight end. With at least 11 fantasy points in two of his last three games, Barner is well-positioned for continued success this week against the Tennessee Titans, who have shown vulnerabilities to opposing tight ends.
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers (10.8% rostered)
Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has endured an inconsistent rookie season, but he delivered a season-high 31.8 fantasy points in Week 11 against the Atlanta Falcons. He appears to be developing a stronger connection with No. 1 receiver Tetairoa McMillan, signaling potential improvement. This week, Young faces a San Francisco 49ers defense that has been significantly impacted by injuries, contributing to them allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game. Notably, the 49ers conceded 21.8 fantasy points to Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett in Week 11, even when Brissett’s primary receiving options were limited to Wilson and Greg Dortch.
Andrei Iosivas, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (5.6% rostered)
The suspension of star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase opens the door for increased targets for Andrei Iosivas in Week 12 against the New England Patriots. Iosivas has recorded more than four targets in three games this season, achieving at least 13 fantasy points in two of those contests. His average of 13.5 yards per reception indicates his ability to convert limited volume into meaningful production. The Patriots’ defense, facing its own set of key defensive player absences, has allowed the second-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers. With Tee Higgins likely drawing the majority of defensive attention, Iosivas is poised to benefit from more favorable coverage.
Solak: Don’t Be Surprised If…
Joe Burrow Leads the Bengals to Victory in His Return from Injury
Assuming Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is cleared to play after being listed as questionable due to a turf toe injury, a victory in his first game back against the New England Patriots should not be surprising. While the Bengals’ defense has struggled for much of the season, their performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11 showed marked improvement and energy. Burrow’s return is expected to ignite the team and the home crowd. The Patriots’ defense, while often stout against the run, is more susceptible through the air. This matchup has the potential to develop into a high-scoring affair, a scenario where a healthy Burrow and a re-energized Bengals offense could secure a crucial win.
The Arizona Cardinals Upset the Jacksonville Jaguars
Despite two consecutive lopsided losses where the Arizona Cardinals surrendered 44 and 41 points to divisional opponents, an upset victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 12 is a distinct possibility. These recent deficits often forced Arizona to abandon their game plan early. The Jacoby Brissett-led Cardinals offense has shown flashes of capability, and they face a Jaguars defense that frequently relies on turnovers to dictate outcomes. With the coaching staff in Arizona likely fighting for their jobs, a desperate and inspired home performance is anticipated against a Jaguars team that has demonstrated inconsistency.
The Cleveland Browns Secure a Win by Dominating on the Ground
As Shedeur Sanders prepares for his inaugural NFL start, the Cleveland Browns’ most viable path to victory against the Las Vegas Raiders may lie in a physically dominant rushing attack. The Raiders’ defense, apart from the relentless Maxx Crosby, has shown vulnerabilities across the board. Cleveland’s ground game has notably improved with the emergence of rookie running back Quinshon Judkins, who has provided a much-needed spark. Relying on an under-center, physical running game would not only leverage the Browns’ strengths but also alleviate pressure on Sanders, potentially making his most effective plays the handoffs he executes.
Bucky Irving’s Return Revolutionizes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Offense
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense could experience a significant jolt with the return of running back Bucky Irving, who has been sidelined with foot and shoulder injuries. Last week, Sean Tucker offered a glimpse of the potential impact of an explosive backfield presence, tallying two touchdowns and 140 scrimmage yards against the Bills. Tampa Bay’s screen game has been less potent in Irving’s absence, and the offense has struggled to generate explosive gains on the ground. Irving’s return, coupled with Tucker’s recent success, could provide the Buccaneers with a much-needed "easy button" for offensive production, injecting dynamism into a unit that desperately requires a spark to remain competitive.
Bowen: Key Matchup to Watch
Philadelphia Eagles Quarterback Jalen Hurts vs. Dallas Cowboys Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus
The Week 12 clash between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys will feature a critical tactical battle between Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts and Cowboys defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus. The Eagles’ passing game has been inconsistent, and they will need to find solutions against a familiar opponent. In their Week 1 encounter, Eberflus’ defense deployed zone coverage on an overwhelming 87.9% of Hurts’ dropbacks, executing with exceptional discipline to maintain depth and effectively constrict throwing windows. For Week 12, the Eagles must devise counter-strategies to create open throwing lanes for Hurts, allowing him to operate more freely and execute middle-of-the-field concepts. How Hurts adapts to Eberflus’ strategic approach and whether the Eagles can generate sustained passing game success will be a defining factor in this pivotal divisional game.
Maldonado: My Favorite Bet for Week 12
Indianapolis Colts +3.5 at Kansas City Chiefs
My preferred wager for Week 12 is the Indianapolis Colts +3.5 against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Colts are schematically well-suited to exploit the Chiefs’ identified weaknesses. Indianapolis excels at running the ball and consistently generates explosive plays through play-action, enabling them to dictate early-down efficiency. This offensive approach is designed to keep games close and within a field goal margin. While Patrick Mahomes undoubtedly makes the Chiefs a formidable opponent, this current iteration of the Kansas City team has not consistently produced wide victory margins. Considering the Colts’ favorable EPA profile, their improved secondary play, and their capacity to orchestrate sustained scoring drives, taking Indianapolis with the 3.5-point spread represents the optimal side for this contest.
NFL Nation: Crucial Quarterback Questions
Sam Darnold’s Learnings from His Four-Interception Performance Against the Rams
Following his four-interception outing against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 11, Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold identified two primary areas for improvement. First, he acknowledged the need for better recognition of the Rams’ shell coverage schemes. Second, he emphasized the importance of progressing through his reads rather than fixating on one or two targets. As an example, his second interception occurred when cornerback Cobie Durant jumped Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s out route because Darnold’s eyes remained locked on his primary receiver. His fourth interception was on an extended play, which head coach Mike Macdonald noted can yield some of Darnold’s most spectacular moments. "You don’t want to take the playmaker out of him," Macdonald stated, "but you also understand when we need to be able to get to the next play versus putting the ball in jeopardy down the field." Darnold’s ability to balance playmaking with risk management will be crucial moving forward. – Brady Henderson, Seahawks reporter
Expectations for Shedeur Sanders’ First Start with First-Team Reps
With a full week of practice reps alongside the Cleveland Browns’ first-team offense, Shedeur Sanders is expected to benefit from a game plan specifically designed to leverage his strengths and mitigate his weaknesses in his first NFL start. This includes utilizing offensive concepts that highlight his downfield accuracy while simultaneously providing clear answers to the blitzes that challenged him in his previous appearance against the Baltimore Ravens. Against a formidable pass rusher like Maxx Crosby of the Raiders, the Browns are anticipated to incorporate more pocket movement and quick-rhythm throws, allowing Sanders to get the ball out of his hands efficiently and in sync with the offense. – Daniel Oyefusi, Browns reporter
Saints’ Expectations for Tyler Shough After the Bye Week
The New Orleans Saints are anticipating continued improvement from quarterback Tyler Shough following their bye week. Prior to the break, in the game against the Carolina Panthers, Shough began to establish chemistry with both wide receiver Chris Olave and tight end Juwan Johnson. He demonstrated an ability to open up the downfield passing game and effectively extend plays with his mobility. Shough himself has expressed growing comfort in his leadership role with each passing week. The expectation is that Shough will build upon the confidence gained from the 17-7 victory over the Panthers and take further steps forward in his first home start, showcasing greater command of the offense. – Katherine Terrell, Saints reporter
Key Differences in the Falcons’ Game Plan with Kirk Cousins
With Kirk Cousins now at the helm for the Atlanta Falcons and wide receiver Drake London sidelined, a notable shift in the offensive game plan is anticipated. Expect an increased number of throws to running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, as well as more targets for tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. Cousins typically favors attacking the middle of the field with intermediate routes, a departure from Michael Penix Jr.’s preference for airing things out, particularly outside the numbers. Furthermore, the Falcons will likely reduce their usage of the pistol formation; Atlanta has aligned from the pistol on a league-high 48.8% of snaps this season, more than double that of any other team, a formation often favored by more mobile quarterbacks like Penix. This strategic adjustment will aim to maximize Cousins’ strengths and the available personnel. – Marc Raimondi, Falcons reporter
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