Ali Akbar Rosady
The eleventh week of the National Football League season is set to commence with a Thursday night encounter featuring the New York Jets and the New England Patriots. This report provides an in-depth analysis for Week 11, integrating detailed score projections, over/under figures, and win probabilities for each contest. A core component of this analysis involves the "Shadow Reports," which leverage extensive play-by-play data to identify specific defensive schemes and pinpoint individual wide receiver-cornerback matchups. By meticulously tracking these alignments, including potential shadow coverage situations, this report aims to offer enhanced insights into player performance outlooks, influencing decisions for season-long fantasy leagues and daily fantasy sports.
The projections and advice presented herein are framed for 12-team PPR leagues, adhering to relatively standard scoring and lineup configurations (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST). Player "Matchup" ratings are derived from a proprietary metric that accounts for both raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed by opposing defenses to each position throughout the current season. All projections and rankings are subject to continuous updates leading up to each game’s kickoff.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
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The New England Patriots are projected to secure a 31-19 victory over the New York Jets, with an implied over/under of 49.4 points. New England enters the contest with an 87% win probability, the second-highest of the week.
For the Jets, running back Breece Hall presents a nuanced fantasy scenario. Despite his established role as a primary offensive weapon, Hall faces a significant challenge against a formidable Patriots run defense. New England has allowed the fewest rushing yards and a league-low 3.3 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season. Furthermore, the Patriots have conceded the second-fewest scrimmage yards and only three total touchdowns to the position, with no individual running back surpassing 50 rushing yards against them in any game. However, Hall’s value is bolstered by his considerable involvement in the passing game. The Patriots have shown vulnerability against running back receptions, having allowed the most receptions to the position, which has led to 17-plus fantasy point efforts for players like Bijan Robinson and De’Von Achane. Hall, currently ranked seventh among NFL running backs in receiving yards, is projected as a midrange RB2 for Week 11, with his receiving prowess mitigating the tough rushing matchup.
Washington Commanders @ Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins are projected to narrowly defeat the Washington Commanders 26-24, with an over/under of 50.3 points, the third-highest of the week. The Dolphins hold a 59% win probability.
Washington’s backfield situation remains fluid following the Week 10 departure of Chris Rodriguez Jr. due to a shoulder injury in the third quarter. Prior to his injury, Rodriguez appeared to have supplanted Jacory Croskey-Merritt as the lead back, starting the game and playing seven of the first nine snaps before Croskey-Merritt saw the field. Rodriguez played 17 of 25 first-half snaps. After his injury, Croskey-Merritt played 10 snaps, while Jeremy McNichols played nine. The trio collectively produced 14.5 fantasy points, with no individual back exceeding 30 yards. Week 11 presents a favorable matchup, as Miami has allowed the fourth-most yards, eighth-most fantasy points, and 4.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs. However, the presence of a struggling, Jayden Daniels-less offense and a three-headed committee mitigates the upside. If Rodriguez remains sidelined, Croskey-Merritt, who has recorded under 6.0 fantasy points in six consecutive games, may possess deep-league flex appeal.
Shadow Report: Miami’s wide receivers are positioned for an advantageous matchup against a struggling and injury-depleted Washington secondary. The Commanders’ cornerback group includes Jonathan Jones and Noah Igbinoghene on the boundary, with Mike Sainristil covering the slot. Washington has allowed the third-most fantasy points to receivers this season and ranks last in EPA (Expected Points Added) against the pass over the last four weeks. The Commanders are also in the top five for yards (1,779), touchdowns (13), yards per target (9.8), and catch rate (69%) allowed to receivers. Jaylen Waddle is a primary beneficiary of this matchup, while Malik Washington could emerge as a sleeper flex option.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons are projected to defeat the Carolina Panthers 22-19, with an over/under of 40.9 points, ranking 14th highest. The Falcons have a 61% win probability.
Tetairoa McMillan has commanded a 38% target share over the past three weeks, a figure surpassed only by Jaxon Smith-Njigba (42%) across the NFL. While this increased usage is notable, it has translated to a modest 36.5 fantasy points within Carolina’s run-heavy offensive scheme. On the season, McMillan ranks seventh among receivers in targets (80) but falls outside the top 12 in catches (46) and yards (618). His two touchdowns (both in Week 6) place him 22nd among wide receivers in fantasy points (30th in points per game). Although his expected touchdown total (xTD) of 4.2 suggests potential positive regression, his current usage maintains his status in the weekly WR3 discussion. This includes Week 11 against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the second-fewest receptions to receivers this season and limited McMillan to 48 yards in their Week 3 encounter.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills are projected to defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26-24, with an over/under of 50.2 points, the fourth-highest of the week. The Bills hold a 59% win probability.
Cade Otton recorded career-highs in targets (12), receptions (nine), yardage (82), and fantasy points (17.2) in Week 10. After averaging 2.8 targets and 2.4 fantasy points per game through the first four weeks, Otton’s production has surged to averages of 7.4 targets and 12.2 points per game over his last five outings. This increase coincides with the absences of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr., and Bucky Irving due to injury, mirroring a similar leap in production during their absences in 2024. Despite Tampa Bay’s offense not matching its previous season’s efficiency, Otton’s Week 10 performance marked his first top-10 fantasy tight end finish of the season. With Godwin and Evans still sidelined, Otton enters the TE1 radar but faces a challenging Week 11 matchup against a Bills defense that has allowed the fewest targets, catches, yards, and fantasy points to tight ends. Travis Kelce (12.6 fantasy points) is the only tight end to exceed 8.0 fantasy points against Buffalo this season.
Shadow Report: If Christian Benford returns from injury, he is a candidate to shadow Emeka Egbuka. Should Benford remain out, rookie Maxwell Hairston is expected to cover Egbuka. Benford has previously shadowed Garrett Wilson (9.0 fantasy points), Tyreek Hill (15.9), Chris Olave (11.0), Drake London (31.8), Tetairoa McMillan (16.9), and Travis Kelce (10.6) on their perimeter routes this season. Hairston filled in for Benford last week, shadowing Jaylen Waddle (17.7). The six aforementioned shadowed wide receivers averaged 17.1 fantasy points, with four exceeding 15.9 points. This matchup does not present a significant concern, and Egbuka is projected as a fringe WR1.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
The Houston Texans are projected to defeat the Tennessee Titans 26-14, with the lowest over/under of the week at 40.3 points. The Texans possess the highest win probability at 88%.
Running back Woody Marks is coming off a Week 10 performance where he played a career-high 78% of the Texans’ offensive snaps. A substantial early-game deficit likely contributed to his workload. Marks posted a strong 14-carry, 63-yard, one-touchdown rushing line and added 18 yards on two receptions. The rookie has now recorded 15-plus fantasy points in three of his last six games, though this span also includes two sub-3.0-point outings. Marks faces an excellent Week 11 matchup against the same defense that allowed him career-highs in touches (21), yards (119), touchdowns (two), and fantasy points (27.9) in Week 4. While Marks may cede some work to Nick Chubb this week, he remains Houston’s current lead back and is considered an RB2 option against a defense that has allowed a league-high 14 touchdowns to opposing running backs.
Shadow Report (Texans WRs): Houston’s wide receivers are projected for an upgrade against Tennessee’s depleted cornerback unit. With top corner L’Jarius Sneed still on injured reserve and Roger McCreary having been traded, Jalyn Armour-Davis and Darrell Baker Jr. are manning the perimeter, with Marcus Harris in the slot. The Titans have allowed the sixth-most yards, ninth-most fantasy points, the highest catch rate (73%), and the fourth-highest yards per target (9.5) to receivers this season. Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, and the ascending Jayden Higgins are positioned to benefit.
Shadow Report (Titans WRs): Tennessee’s wide receivers face a downgrade against Houston’s dominant pass defense. The Texans have allowed the fifth-fewest receptions, five touchdowns, and the third-fewest fantasy points to the perimeter. Only three receivers have exceeded 13 fantasy points against them this season, with one benefiting from a return touchdown. While Derek Stingley Jr. did not explicitly shadow Calvin Ridley in their Week 4 encounter, he covered him on half of his routes, limiting Ridley to 5.0 fantasy points. In that game, Titans receivers combined for only 13.0 fantasy points. Tennessee’s passing game is generally best avoided, particularly in Week 11.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
The Chicago Bears are projected to defeat the Minnesota Vikings 26-23, with an over/under of 49 points. The Bears hold a 58% win probability.
J.J. McCarthy recorded a career-high 42 pass attempts in Week 10, significantly more than his previous three games where he did not exceed 25 attempts. This increased volume resulted in a career-high 248 passing yards, surpassing his previous high of 160 yards. However, McCarthy’s efficiency remains a concern, as he is averaging 6.4 yards per pass attempt and completing an uncharacteristically low 54% of his passes this season. McCarthy’s performance in Week 10 led to a career day for Jalen Nailor (5 receptions, 124 yards, 1 touchdown), but no other Vikings receiver surpassed 40 receiving yards. Nailor and Justin Jefferson (81 yards in Week 2) are the only Vikings to exceed 50 receiving yards in a game with McCarthy at quarterback. Jefferson (12.6 fantasy PPG in four games), T.J. Hockenson (4.7 PPG in four games), and Jordan Addison (7.5 PPG in two games) have seen their production significantly impacted with McCarthy under center. However, there is potential for improvement this week against a Chicago defense that has allowed 20 passing touchdowns (third-most) this season.
Shadow Report: Minnesota’s wide receivers are projected for an upgrade against a Chicago defense that is currently without top cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon. Tyrique Stevenson and Nahshon Wright have been operating as the boundary corners, with Chauncey Gardner-Johnson recently joining the team and taking over the primary slot role. The Bears have surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points, the second-most touchdowns (13), and the third-highest yards per target (9.7) to receivers. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and deep sleeper Jalen Nailor (coming off a strong performance) are expected to benefit from this matchup, though Jefferson remains the only high-confidence starter.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants
The Green Bay Packers are projected to defeat the New York Giants 27-23, with an over/under of 49.7 points. The Packers hold a 60% win probability.
Theo Johnson is coming off a strong Week 10 outing, where he set career-highs in targets (eight), receptions (seven), and yardage (75). The second-year tight end has now climbed to 12th among tight ends in fantasy points, with top-12 finishes in two consecutive games and three of his last four. After averaging 3.0 targets and 3.6 fantasy points in three games with Russell Wilson at quarterback and Malik Nabers fully healthy, Johnson’s production surged to averages of 6.0 targets and 11.9 points per game in seven games with Jaxson Dart under center and Nabers sidelined. While Johnson has struggled to generate high yardage totals (18th among tight ends with 314 yards), he has compensated with solid usage near the goal line, recording five touchdowns and four end zone targets, both ranking in the top six at his position. Although his touchdown total (2.8 xTD) suggests some positive regression, his consistent workload positions him as a fringe TE1 moving forward. He would be a stronger Week 11 streaming option if Dart (concussion) were healthy, but he remains on the TE1 radar with Jameis Winston starting.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers are projected to defeat the Cincinnati Bengals 28-24, with the second-highest over/under of the week at 52.9 points. The Steelers hold a 64% win probability.
Aaron Rodgers is identified as a potential "streamer of the week" for Week 11. Despite consecutive underwhelming performances, including a 6.4-point effort against the Chargers in Week 10, this week’s matchup against the Bengals is highly favorable. Cincinnati ranks in the top five for yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. After limiting Joe Flacco to 12.2 points in Week 1, the Bengals have allowed eight consecutive quarterbacks to exceed 15 fantasy points (averaging 22.2 points), including a season-high 38.7 points to Caleb Williams in their most recent game. Rodgers has demonstrated the ability to capitalize on favorable matchups this season, as evidenced by his four touchdowns and 22.6 points scored when these teams last met in Week 7. Rodgers is considered a viable streaming option against a defense that is allowing the highest EPA against the pass.
Shadow Report (DK Metcalf): DJ Turner is expected to shadow DK Metcalf this week, a matchup that occurred in Week 7. In that previous encounter, Turner covered Metcalf on 26 of his 33 routes, including 26 of 27 on the perimeter. Metcalf was limited to three receptions for 50 yards on five targets, initiating a streak of three games with 8.0 or fewer fantasy points over his subsequent four appearances. Turner has been a notable performer on an otherwise struggling Bengals defense, having allowed an average of 8.2 fantasy points per game to the seven receivers he has shadowed. Metcalf, who averages 8.8 fantasy points per game in shadowed situations, is projected for a downgrade and carries significant bust potential. Conversely, Cincinnati’s defense has been highly permissive to players not covered by Turner (ranking worst in defensive EPA), suggesting a boost for secondary skill players in this matchup.
Shadow Report (Bengals WRs): Cincinnati’s passing game is projected for an upgrade against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the sixth-most to the perimeter and the third-most to the slot. The Steelers have surrendered the most targets, receptions, and yards to the position, with six receivers exceeding 20 fantasy points against them. This includes Michael Pittman Jr. and Ladd McConkey in the past two weeks, as well as both Ja’Marr Chase (38.1 points) and Tee Higgins (21.6 points) in their Week 7 matchup.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Los Angeles Chargers are projected to defeat the Jacksonville Jaguars 26-21, with an over/under of 47.3 points. The Chargers hold a 66% win probability.
Jakobi Meyers made his Jaguars debut in Week 10, playing only 23 of 55 snaps, significantly fewer than Parker Washington (47 snaps) and Tim Patrick (38 snaps). Dyami Brown (21 snaps) also saw comparable usage. This snap distribution occurred even with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter sidelined. Meyers, who was targeted three times, may see an increased workload as he assimilates into the offense, but he cannot be reliably trusted in fantasy lineups until his snap share expands. If Thomas returns this week, he is projected as a WR3. Washington, who has recorded 17-plus fantasy points in consecutive games, would become a deep-league flex option, with Meyers relegated to benches. If Thomas remains out, Washington is a WR3 and Meyers a flex option.
Shadow Report: Jacksonville’s wide receivers face a challenging matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to receivers, including the fewest to the perimeter and the fourth-fewest to the slot. Los Angeles has also conceded the third-fewest yards and five touchdowns to receivers, alongside the second-lowest catch rate (56%) and third-lowest yards per target (6.8).
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
The Los Angeles Rams are projected to defeat the Seattle Seahawks 27-23, with an over/under of 50.1 points. The Rams hold a 65% win probability.
Rashid Shaheed made his Seattle debut in Week 10, playing 18 of 59 snaps. His limited usage was primarily a consequence of game script, as Seattle established a substantial early lead and attempted only 13 passes. Shaheed ran a route on eight of those plays, trailing only Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) and Cooper Kupp (nine) in team route participation. While Shaheed was immediately integrated into the passing game, his transition to an extremely low-volume pass attack (Sam Darnold is averaging 25.3 pass attempts per game, compared to the Saints’ 35.0 per game during Weeks 1-9 when Shaheed was on their roster) is a concern. Shaheed is anticipated to see a boost in volume in a more competitive game script against the Rams this week, but he remains best valued as a boom/bust flex option.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
The San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals are projected for a 25-25 tie, with an over/under of 49.5 points. The 49ers hold the lowest win probability of the week at 50%.
Jacoby Brissett has been a consistent fantasy performer, finishing as a top-12 quarterback in fantasy points in each of his last four starts. The veteran passer has recorded exactly two passing touchdowns and at least 19 fantasy points in all four starts, while limiting turnovers (one interception) and contributing with his legs (80 rushing yards and one touchdown during this period). Brissett benefited significantly from garbage time in Week 10’s 22-point loss to Seattle. He is positioned for a favorable Week 11 matchup against a 49ers defense that has allowed the fourth-highest EPA against the pass. San Francisco has also conceded 19 passing touchdowns (seventh-most) while generating only 12 sacks (fewest) and one interception (second-fewest). Both Jaxson Dart (27.2 points) and Matthew Stafford (26.9 points) have delivered top-5 fantasy performances against the 49ers in the past two weeks. The absence of Marvin Harrison Jr. is a detractor, but Brissett remains on the streaming radar this week.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
The Baltimore Ravens are projected to defeat the Cleveland Browns 24-19, with an over/under of 42.4 points. The Ravens hold a 66% win probability.
Jerry Jeudy entered the Browns’ Week 9 bye with no touchdowns and no games exceeding 11.6 fantasy points. He now has one of each after recording a 6-reception, 78-yard, one-touchdown receiving line on 12 targets in Week 10, with all three figures representing season-highs. This strong performance provides optimism, particularly considering he has seen 12-plus targets in two of his last three games. His 21% target share on the season is comparable to his career-high 23% mark from 2024, when he finished sixth in yards and 12th in fantasy points among wide receivers. Jeudy’s significant Week 10 output was somewhat anticipated against a Sauce Gardner-less Jets defense. Statistically, the Browns possess the easiest rest-of-season schedule for receivers. Jeudy re-enters the WR3/flex discussion this week against a Baltimore defense that limited Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison but allowed 23.4 points to Jalen Nailor in Week 10.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to defeat the Denver Broncos 24-22, with an over/under of 45.4 points. The Chiefs hold a 57% win probability.
Patrick Mahomes has not surpassed 18.0 fantasy points in a game against the rival Broncos since Week 17 of the 2022 season. In his three encounters with Denver over the past two seasons, Mahomes has accumulated two touchdowns and three interceptions, averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game. While the Chiefs’ offense has shown improvement since prior to 2022, Mahomes is not the high-end lineup lock he typically is, remaining a back-end starting option. Denver’s defense has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns (eight) and the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, with only three quarterbacks exceeding 15 fantasy points against them.
Shadow Report: Denver’s wide receivers face a downgrade against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the second-fewest yards and sixth-fewest fantasy points to receivers this season, including the fewest points over the past eight weeks. Only three receivers have exceeded 15 fantasy points against the Chiefs this season. Courtland Sutton (held below 11 fantasy points in four of his last five games), Marvin Mims Jr., and others in the Denver receiving corps will contend with a Kansas City cornerback rotation headlined by Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.
Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles are projected to defeat the Detroit Lions 27-26, with the highest over/under of the week at 53 points. The Eagles hold a 53% win probability.
The Detroit Lions appear to have unlocked Jameson Williams following their Week 8 bye. In his first seven games of the season, Williams registered two notable performances (18.8 and 18.6 points) but was held under 7.0 points in the other five. In the two games since the bye, Williams has recorded receiving lines of 4-66-1 and 6-119-1, resulting in 16-plus fantasy points in both contests. Williams’ 18.8% target share during these two games is more in line with his 18.5% mark from 2024 and an increase from his 15.4% share during Weeks 1-7. However, Williams is not entirely out of the woods, as he faces a challenging Week 11 matchup against an Eagles defense that, despite facing the sixth-most wide receiver targets, has allowed only four touchdowns (second-fewest) to the position. No receiver has exceeded 23.0 fantasy points against Philadelphia in any game this season. Williams is expected to see significant coverage from Quinyon Mitchell and is best viewed as a WR3/flex option.
Dallas Cowboys @ Las Vegas Raiders
The Dallas Cowboys
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